Once again three huge field handicaps to give a miss... How unoriginal can I be in the Gold Cup? What do I fancy to play second fiddle to Stradivarius? With the expectation of rain, this could be a stamina test. Nayef Road is a likeable horse and I see no reason why Prince Of Arran or Withhold should turn around the Sagaro form but at least the latter pair have been further than two miles before. If it turns up soft that would help Technician but he goes beyond two miles for the first time. Cross Counter was a close fourth last year on soft ground and can get two places nearer to his nemesis. I will bypass the Chesham for betting purposes but I hope that Battleground, first foal of Arc winner Found, upholds the family honour although as he is a War Front he may not want it soft. Whilst the field for the Wolferton is numerically large there look to be quite a few just making up the numbers and the betting indicates as much. Regal Reality was a good third to Enable in the Eclipse but his only win on soft ground was his racecourse debut, so rain really would not favour him. Sir Dragonet on the other hand likes to get a toe in but his 2019 Derby close fifth does not read so well a year later. Fox Tal ran his best race when a little over three lengths fourth to Magical in the Champion Stakes and comes from a yard in good form. Interesting that Frankie has chosen Crossed Baton over Dubai Warrior but neither of them look like they want easy ground; and preference would be for the latter. The Jersey used to be contested by those that had not quite managed to get home in the Guineas taking on the lightly raced three year olds who never saw the Classics. Followers of King Leonidas will be hoping this is not Thermopylae and he will not be bothered by any rain but he does have 10lb to find with some of these on the book. With the week that Jim Crowley is having Molatham ought to come into the reckoning but he was a huge disappointment on soft ground when last seen: plus Crowley never wins with my money on him! Classic form comes from three sources: Monarch Of Egypt turns out quickly after finishing fourth of the six Ballydoyle horses behind Siskin at The Curragh, French raider Celestin was fourth in a blanket finish for the places behind Victor Ludorum in the Poulains, whilst the race-fit Godolphin filly Final Song was involved in the blanket finish for places behind Love in the 1000 Guineas. Given his proximity to Victor Ludorum, I am more inclined to think CELESTIN will fare best of those and Fabrice Chappet has a 37 per cent strike rate in France this month (2 wins from 5 runners at Chantilly on Sunday).
Amongst a score of other names and pseudonyms, many being avatar-related? Just a few: Boris Fenster, Trotsky, Eddie, an Arab name (avatar looked like that murdering Saudi Crown Prince (), etc., etc.) He's been hanging around on this forum for a long time, just as long as those of us who were on the old BBC 606 site?
First bet at this Royal Ascot meeting, just for interest and fun as I could 'stop' anything at the moment! 13:50 Ascot - Mountain Angel e/w (Form possibly not quite good enough for this event, but rain and softer ground would be a help. James Doyle riding well at the moment). Good luck today fellas!
From what I have seen, you bet in the sort of races I wouldn't go near with someone else's money let alone mine, but you seem to do pretty well at it.
All about King Leonidas for me today, I don't like putting horses up when the price has gone as already its not as good a bet as it was, but for those interested in on Technician 7/1 and First Prophet 10/1, the money was down for the latter first time and he won well despite being very green, will be tough going against godolphin and ballydoyle as they've been regularly running G1 horses in this race but I think First Prophet is a nice horse for the future. Smaller bets in the handicaps on Acquitted and Waliyak.
LOVE MY LIFE 20/1 Newmarket 4:25 I have put this one up on here before, last season when it was a 2yo. I know a couple of the owners well enough to know that it hadnt always performed to its full potential. Interesting today as they have moved all their horses to Gay Kelleway and I think that first time up she will be keen to impress provided the instruction is to run with the handbrake off. I quite like the lad in the saddle as he is a claimer who is good value for his allowance.
A pretty poor day by Royal Ascot standards. The Jersey Stakes is the race if the day from an interest point of view with several form lines perhaps being resolved in terms of comparing various Guineas races. Final Song makes least appeal to me. She was 5 and a half lengths behind Love at Newmarket and was a 100/1 shot that day. It reeks of one of those flash-in-the-pan performances that don't stack up and her rise of 9 lbs for her Guineas run looks a typical adjustment to make the Classic form look stronger than it might actually be. She's been backed but is not for me. Monarch Of Egypt is similar, in that his rating largely relies on running behind Siskin a few times. He doesn't win often enough for my liking and was never really involved in the Irish Guineas. Celestin clearly likes soft ground and a win for him here would be a compliment to Victor Ludorum who I hope can go on to win the French Derby. The ability to handle the going could be paramount today but he wouldn't be an obvious candidate for dropping in trip after getting a mile as a 2YO on testing ground, Worryingly, Celestin was beaten at 1/2 Fav in a modest contest on his previous start. Not a single tip for him on the Racing Post selection box but the tipsters don't tend to venture beyond the more obvious very often and to me it makes no sense that Molatham has four tips. The Varian horse is only 102 on official ratings and was poor in the Autumn Stakes on soft. His popularity is almost certainly because of a win over Wichita. That was the O'Brien colt's second race though and he has clearly improved a heap since. Molatham seems very weak in the betting today. I took a chance with King Leonidas ante post. He needs a good bit more but few can improve a horse like John Gosden. He was 9/2 at that time and 9/4 today looked a bit too short. He improved about a stone from run 1 to run 2 and probably needs 10-12 more to be in the shake up today. Celestin appeals most of the others and is probably underrated by most tipsters. The opening race time was slow by 7.20 seconds and King Leonidas won on soft in his first race, in a time that was 7 seconds slower than standard, so it shouldn't really be an issue for him here.
ascot,2 25:JERSEY STAKES there are surely a bit less exposed horses in this line-up than LORD OF THE LODGE,but it would be folly,to underrate him here,as hes done well last season,especially his second to threat in the gimcrack stakes means,he deserves his place in this field,and might go very well at a price.
Spot on with the analysis Swanny lad. The ground made all the difference. A similar statement could have been applied to the winner of the first. According to the M-I-L who lives five miles up the road..."it hasnt stopped raining all day". Get on the soft ground lovers!
Thanks gentlemen, good to have a change of fortune after a few blowouts! Missed 12/1 but managed to get 11/1, so not too bad at all. Yes, Stick, to examine remaining soft-ground specialists pronto must be the order of the day!
