I didnt think there was any reason why Al Suhail would reverse the form with Military March from the Autumn Stakes, he was put in his place that day by a horse who had only run in a maiden while Al Suhail had 3 runs under his belt, one of them at a high level against Kameko and Positive in the Solario, if he was ever going to beat Military March it would have been then. I found it strange that James Doyle was on Al Suhail and Military March was left with a novice rider, but that probably tells you that today was the not the day for Military March and Epsom was the main target. Al Suhail is obviously better than we saw today and he could still bounce back in calmer waters, but he doesnt look like one you can trust too much. As for Palace Pier, never in a million years is he a Derby horse, I had him down as a Jersey horse. I will believe it when I see it that Kingman can produce a top 12f horse. I posted a while back, Quadrilateral, Love and Millisle, forget the rest. Love was 20/1 and Millisle was 16/1 at that point, I regret not backing Millisle but like you, im not convinced she will stay. I think Love has a really good chance on the fast ground with the high draw, im pretty confident she will go close. Strange to see so many of my Derby horses have been running today. Military March earlier, Instilled Regard and Code Of Honour from the last 2 Kentucky Derbys, and my horse for this years Kentucky Derby Authentic runs in the Santa Anita Derby in half an hours time.
I think the saying 4th in the 2000G winner of the Derby is beyond old, and refers to a day when trainers ran their Derby colts in the 2000G even if they had staying pedigrees. I can't remember when it last happened, though I have a suspicion Generous might be it because he won his 2000G but was on the wrong side. 2nd in the 2000G is a better adage these days but Wichita is not going to do it. Mill Reef, Roberto, Grundy and Australia were all 2nd, and there are probably others.
"Palace Pier, never in a million years is he a Derby horse, I had him down as a Jersey horse. I will believe it when I see it that Kingman can produce a top 12f horse" Benoit, unbelievably Palace Pier is 10/1 Favourite for The St Leger. As Les Dennis would oft say on Family Fortunes, if he's up there I'll give you the money myself.
Here is the Derby winners Guineas runs since Generous, doesnt look great for Military March, I suppose you can only guess how the other Derby winners would have fared in the race and in the conditions this was more of a test of speed than normal, he has run a faster time even that Sea The Stars in finishing 4th. please log in to view this image Notable that he was a much bigger price than any of the others who who apart from Generous were strongly fancied. Overall it wasnt a bad run and he should run a big race in the Derby based on it.
I have to say, this looked pretty impressive. A soft opposition, but he quickened away at the end. Still a bit green too.
I must be going bonkers Bustino. I could have sworn Grundy finished 4th in the Guineas. Was I thinking of another Guineas 4th I wonder. Whoever it was they won the Derby at 5/1. Memory getting addled I think. Never heard of the saying 'th in the Guineas winner of the Derby. Horses with staying pedigrees that are fast enough to hold their own in the Guineas and not get beaten far , finishing strongly has always been something I look for, which is why I was particularly interested in how Military March ran. The specific placing is irrelevant in my mind; just how they finished and how close they got, given how the race is run Not sure what to make of MM as he was fast enough to keep with the leaders all the way. He is either very good and a good bet for the Derby or he may not stay the 12f at Epsom as well as his pedigree suggests What do you reckon?
Hmmm. That was impressive. I do like him. Very late to the track (late October) , and had a very gentle introduction on soft ground, won a month later comfortably and won the Derby trial comfortably in a very fast time proving he acts on the ground and on a switchback course. Sired by a Derby winner out of a 2000Gns winner mare. What's not to like? Yep, he's the one for me
Paul Cole’s Generous was fourth in Mystiko’s 2000 Guineas on his seasonal debut before going on to win the 1991 Derby. I would say that you were thinking of him but his SP was 9/1.
Cheers QM but it was definitely Grundy. I don't know why I thought he was 4th in the Guineas but I do remember going to the Derby to back him at 5/1
I think I might have solved this one Ron. I reckon the horse you are thinking of is The Minstrel. He had started 6/5 Fav for the 2000 Guineas but was only 3rd. He went on to win The Derby and I can recall that he was 5/1 when winning at Epsom. The Scottish newspaper The Daily Record had a Derby preview which included a cartoon of Lester Piggott and Willie Carson fighting out the finish on The Minstrel and Hot Grove. I was only 15 at the time but somehow managed to be on The Minstrel. The French horse Blushing Groom was 9/4 Fav but could only manage 3rd place. The Daily Record were like a dog with two cocks and a belly full of piss the following day, claiming that their Cartoonist was a psychic in giving the straight forecast on the Derby. Anyway 3rd in the Guineas and winning the Derby at 5/1 was that old combination of Vincent O'Brien and Lester Piggott. I read later in a book about Robert Sangster that they nearly didn't buy The Minstrel because they felt he was too small but Vincent O'Brien went back and watched the horse walk around and he was struck by how far the colt could cover in a stride, compared to his relative size and he advised that they should buy the colt.
Thats one of my favourite Derbys, love the commentary, and its Hot Grove from The Minstrel, Carson vs Piggot, brilliant finish. Well before my time but my dad was on The Minstrel.
Thanks Grendel but it was definitely Grundy and I clearly remember watching him win the Derby. I backed him at 5/1 on the confident recommendation of Timeform. I just got the placing wrong in the Guineas. I can't remember who I backed in The Minstrel's Derby (without seeing the runners) but I know my wife backed The Minstrel
Haven't we got to look to France for the Derby winner? I did back Military March in January, but not confident.
But where do we look Bustino. My fancy was also Military March but I've switched to English King after that Derby trial. Ticks all the boxes for me and 5/1 seems a decent price. Any horse who can go that fast on that ground on a course similar to Epsom must get a place, surely. I don't think he needs it that fast either so, unless it has soft in the going description, I'm happy with him
Mogul is the one to back if you don't like Military March. English King has beaten a 106 horse by less than Max Vega beat him and is priced up like a proven G1 horse. His price is only going to go 1 way as the Obrien runners become established and with a trainer unproven at the top level. In military march and mogul you have two horses with top level form behind Kameko and the promise of improvement for an extra half mile, English King has already shown his hand over a trip and Berkshire Rocco was worryingly close to him for all that he won very easily. He's not going to be cantering all over 106 horses in the Derby. I'm not saying he can't win, but 5/1 about Ed Walker winning the Derby after winning a Lingfield trial. Think Enable was bigger for the Oaks after winning at Chester.
John Gosden confirmed that Running Wild will NOT run in the Oaks and will stay at 10F. 8/1 quoted after winning a very mediocre looking Pretty Polly where one of the form fillies clearly ran way below her previous level was ridiculous and the race will not provide this year's Oaks winner. I see Godolphin are going to run Pinatubo in the St James Palace Stakes and that reeks to me of desperation to get a win out of the colt before time catches up with him further still.
I don't dislike Military March. Just not as confident as I was. I have never seen Mogul so I'll try to get a look at him I remember a lovely filly scooting round in the Lingfield Oaks trial and repeated it in the Oaks. I think it was Bireme, a Grundy daughter, and as it was a fast time by English King that was 3 big ticks for me, will act on course, will act on fast ground, will stay. Plus sired by a Derby winner is no negative for me. And on the dam side we have Zafonic, 3 Dery winners (1 of them an Arc winner). Looks pretty tasty to me. Another plus is that he has only had 2 races and is progressing. I say 2 races as his debut was nothing more than a racecourse introduction on soft ground. Whatever he beat at Lingfield, he won comfortably and I doubt they will be going much faster than that in the Derby. For a lightly race progressing colt, the extra month is in his favour also. A bigger price would have been nice but 5/1 isn't too bad
