Waldkonig 7/2 for the Newmarket stakes with Ladbrokes, as short as 5/6 with Paddy Power, big difference of opinion on whether Al Suhail runs, that 7/2 surely wont last. please log in to view this image
Al Suhail is 8/1 with Paddy Power that surely means they feel he is going to the Guineas. If Pinatubo falters the race is wide open and despite the trainers sentiments I am not convinced the 10f will suit Al Suhail on Saturday. Far better to run in the Guineas and see how he finishes his race there than run over 10f, fail to stay, be ruled out of the Derby and then face a quick turn around in the St James Palace as a best case reroute. Happy with Victor Ludorum today. I had a few quid at 6's and more at 7/2. Hard to believe he was returned at 5/4 as there was tons of 2/1 this morning. Tropbeau didn't stay and a drop back in trip looks a certainty now. Victor Ludorum is 2/1 for the French Derby and looks a more assured stayer than Persian King did last season. Paolo Alto and Ocean Atlantique look the only dangers. Ecrivain was awful today.
Seems to be strong vibes behind Love as Obriens main classic filly, 5/1 now for the Guineas and no bigger than 8/1 for the Oaks in the last few days, I had been scratching my head as to why she was sitting at 20/1 for both for months with no one looking apparently. As expected, the 7/2 Waldkonig didnt last long with Ladbrokes, blunder by them. please log in to view this image Unfortunately I couldnt take it as I got restricted to small stakes with them recently after having the account for at least 10 years. please log in to view this image I have two open bets left with them and then will close the account. please log in to view this image
I dont see it like that, plenty of bang average judges have been restricted for 'safe' betting, they probably noticed that I was only rarely using them when they were top price over the last few years, will be able to go to the shops when they open back up any way. Restricted with 365 and no BOG with bet victor, but my main accounts are WIlliam Hill and Paddy Power, and can get on whatever with hills, Paddies have some smaller max bets with antepost. No danger of losing those accounts as ive done thousands on trash with them countless times, always capable of throwing away all my good work in a few hours.
Hahaha, You know you have a real problem when they have your picture behind the counter! Most bookies these days dont restrict you for winning but rather they restrict you if you continually beat the SP. They believe that they will lose eventually. Totally ****ing immoral when you think about. You compile the odds in your favour...lay them to everyone.
Paddy Power have cut Al Suhail into 9/2 for the Newmarket Stakes, and its looking like the talking horse Al Aasy could also go there instead of Lingfield, so the initial 7/2 on Waldkonig wouldnt look as good if those 2 turn up, albeit still a fair enough price. Ladbrokes have taken Al Suhail out of their Guineas betting, I said they made a blunder but maybe the old magic sign knew something before anyone else. Going that price about Waldkonig and now removing Al Suhail from the Guineas betting, unless its a random glitch, suggests they have some non public info. There is no drift on betfair as of yet and no other bookie has removed Al Suhail. Any backers would have every right to be angry with Appleby as he made it clear the horse was going for the Guineas and non runner no bet has not taken effect yet. please log in to view this image
Gosden ruled Palace Pier out of the Guineas saying that he would tackle calmer waters first. It could prove wise swerving Pinatubo but he didn't half go into the kiddie's paddling pool with Palace Pier by running him in a Handicap on Saturday. Palace Pier will need to sluice up off 98 if he was ever a Guineas horse in the making. Best price of 5/6 for Saturday perhaps he will go into multiples with Pinatubo for acca players.
Looks like Al Suhail does run in the Guineas afterall and Ladbrokes were more magic mushrooms than magic sign, Waldkonig now 11/8 and the 7/2 is looking nice for anyone who got it.
It seems possible Waldkonig could be favourite for the Derby come Saturday night. That would seem a crazy scenario for a horse who would just have landed a handicap race. I have thought all along that O'Brien had a mediocre team for the Derby and, in fact a less than vintage crop of 2YO's last season. Love was always going to shorten when confirmed and 20/1 was a big enough price but having already backed a few to small stakes ante post I could not add another filly when there was a nag as to whether she could reverse form with Quadrilateral from the Fillies Mile. The logic would be that the Charlton filly is less exposed and open to more potential improvement than Love. Aidan only sendling Love might suggest she is his clear best but that would have to be tempered by the knowledge that he has a fairly average looking bunch who will need to be thinned out into a team to challenge Albigna in the Irish version. I am represented in the Guineas by outsider Summer Romance, who looked good to begin with but unravelled when odds on for the Keeeneland Stajkes. I thought she should have gone to France that week to step up to 7F but it never happened and she stayed at 6F when 3rd next time out. There was some opinion that she might be a sprinter but I didn't feel that when I first saw her and here she is stepping up to a mile in what looks a terrible career progression by the Godolphin team. It must be galling for Sheikh Mohammed to see her as his probable best shot in the 1000 Guineas given the money they spend on fillies in a season. It looks a terrible renewal and Quadrilateral should win this if she had improved over the winter, My two concerns are a personal doubt about Roger Charlton in the early Classics, albeit they are a month later this year, and a memory of Quadrilateral looking outpaced in the Fillies Mile before getting up late. This will be the fastest surface Quadrilateral has faced and she has come from 6/1 to 9/4 without actually doing anything. I would probably go with Boomer if having a bet now. She was behind Quadrilateral and Love in the Fillies Mile but I felt she was a shade below her best that day and she was second to Powerful Breeze in the May Hill. That form puts the Kingman filly in the ball park and I think she will appreciate the likely fast ground. She would have some sort of chance if she has progressed in the 240 days since she was last seen. Suggestion:- Boomer 14/1 Most of the field represent terrible value, even in a strictly mediocre looking renewal.
For all that Waldkonig is a nice horse and has stamina on the dam side, I remain very sceptical that a Kingman can win the Derby, I expect him to win on Saturday and comfortably at 10f but unless he does something ridiculous ill be strongly against him at Epsom, the Guineas is more likely to provide the Derby fav id say. Domino Darling does not run in the Pretty Polly unfortunately, thankfully she was never put in at a tempting enough price to bet antepost, I was planning on backing her on Sunday in what I saw as a must win to have any chance of being a contender in the Oaks. The likely very fast ground might have put them off for a first run after Born With Prides horror show yesterday. As for the Guineas, my bet on Military March at 25/1 was simply because I fancy him strongly for the Derby, not because I fancy him for the Guineas, felt I had to back him for something just incase and its about 1/6th of what ive got on for the Derby. I like him even less now that Hector Crouch is on and hes drawn on what is usually wrong side on fast ground. Id say hes every inch a 25/1 shot and im just hoping he runs a good race in defeat that sets him up nicely for the Derby. My gut feeling is that Pinatubo and Kameko will be the top 2 but not backing anything.
I was thinking that if Pinatubo wins the Guineas really well they might keep him a a mile. He would have little to fear in that sphere moving forward this year and if they are wanting to F**k up the horse's unbeaten record in a hurry the best place to do that would be in the Derby. Anything that finishes in Pinatubo's wake will be avoiding that colt for the rest of the season and there are not many in the Guineas that look ripe for stepping up to 12F straight away to avoid last season's juvenile stand out. Military March and Al Suhail are thought by their trainers to be best served by the Derby trip in time. Looking back at the Autumn Stakes you could only conclude that Military March would be the better suited of the two and I can't agree with Charlie Appleby that Al Suhail should be suited by a mile and a half based on the visual evidence. I trust my eyes more than the pedigree and the fact that they hooded Al Suhail after one start hardly bodes well for Epsom. I feel the faster surface on Saturday may well suit Al Suhail more than Military March and in that respect it may emerge that Al Suhail does the better of the two and it seems hard to imagine that Military March could shorten much more than he is now without at least going close in the 2000 Guineas. If Waldkonig wins well he should shorten from his current position and if Pinatubo were to be confirmed as staying at a mile, I can't see how how Waldkonig would lengthen unless he scrambled home. Waldkonig needs to win on Saturday or the Derby dream is shot to shreds. If he is of the quality required to be a Derby player he has to win nicely in a Listed class race.
The bookies dont need much encouragement and neither do punters backing Gosden horses, so a win will see him cut whether he deserves to be or not, his current price is a joke at 10/1 imo, you should be getting at least 20/1 before this race, hes priced up like hes already won it comfortably and ran to around 110. Military March, Kameko and Mogul have achieved far more on the track so far and all look better value as it stands. Waldkonig has a very high knee action and hits the ground hard, by Kingman out of a Monsun mare, so looks odds on that he will thrive in soft ground, that would be my only concern about on Saturday but he should get away with it against a field of horses rated around 90.
I wonder if Frankie will be free to ride Military March in the Derby, Murphy is retained by Sheikh Fahad and it would be hard for him to get off the Guineas winner anyway. With Frankie back riding Group winners for Godolphin and Gosdens big name 3yo now looking bound for the Derby in Blackpool, could be written for Dettori and Bin Suroor to team up again in the big one with a live chance.
Haven't re-watched this Guineas. I got everyone in to watch it and then quickly went back outside, blurting a few expletives, to see to our own horses Not impressed at all. Pinatubo never looked like winning. I meant to watch Military March with a view to the Derby but I forgot; I was already pissed off at halfway If I remember correctly, Grundy was a running on 4th (nearest at finish) in the Guineas before carrying my money in the Derby where I was in attendance. From what I can recall MM was up there all the time today and I don't think he got any closer than he was at halfway. That just puts a slight doubt in my mind for the Derby. But I wouldn't be rushing to back Kameko for the Derby. I've said all along since last year that Pinatubo has no hope of winning the Derby and I didn't see anything to change that view At the moment it looks anyone's, with some classy pedigrees but slight question marks about staying 12f in a G1. I'm going to have to start again, having previously not looked beyond MM
Military March drifted markedly before the race after running away with the jockey on the way down to the start, poorly drawn and wide all the way with no cover, he made a move to challenge and was then outpaced by the front 3, jockey coasted late on him when beaten and was easing up at the line. The Derby will take around a minute longer to run, totally different ball game, but this is the best form by far we have seen and he is the one who is going to improve for the trip, he will need to be better behaved pre race and hopefully a top jockey on him will help with that. The only real danger imo is Mogul as Kameko is obviously an 8-10f horse like Roaring Lion and English King has to improve a bit on 110 to win a Derby. I think Kameko will get rated about 119, Wichita 118, with Pinatubo well below his 2yo best at 116, suggesting he has stood still on his 2yo level. Military March has run to around about 112 on paper but deserves a slight upgrade id say, and was using the race as a trial. Where would English King have finished in this field at a mile? Probably behind Kinross. I think stepping up to 12f will see Military March jump up to around 120 level, giving him a very good chance of winning. That was only his 3rd run, the winner was having his 5th and by all accounts, this was his Derby.
It was odd to see Miltary March and Al Suhail, who had finished close together in the Autumn Stakes, run such different races today. Military March ran a decent trial for the Derby but Al Suhail ran like a sack of ****. He didn't seem to have grown an inch from last year and he went out like a light today. Charlie Appleby must be on Fantasy Island if he thinks the horse will be better suited by the Derby and the horse was thumped after 6 furlongs today, with the jockey crying for a pair of oars because the horse was going backwards. Palace Pier was cut for the Derby but I can't see him staying a mile and a half at all. Gosden declared today that he saw Waldkonig as a typical Kingman and that he never felt the horse was a mile and a half colt. You wonder why they entered him in the Derby then? Anyway, Palace Pier has less stamina on his Dam's side and I would not really be in a hurry to push him beyond a mile. He might get 10F but if Gosden is to be totally consistent he should not be seeing the colt as a Derby prospect. Again you wonder why they entered Palace Pier in the Derby and given that they wanted to start the horse in calmer waters it would seem a mighty change of heart to rush him to the Derby. Moving to the 1000 Guineas it is puzzling for me to see Millisle replace Quadrilateral at the head of the betting. The Harrington filly is yet to race beyond 6F and the Cheveley Park third did not do a lot for the form when Tropbeau disappointed in the French 1000 Guineas. I love how Timeform can say that Summer Romance has stamina to prove not having raced beyond 6F and then give Millisle the five star pick with the comment that she could stay a mile, when she has raced three times at 5f and twice at 6f. I think I would want more than "could stay" in order to give anything the selection. I am on Boomer for the double with Kameko but again Timeform's preview say she is exposed after five starts, whilst their selection has also had five starts. I see Simon Rowlands tips Cloak Of Spirits but I think she is way short. Mum's Tipple was last in the 2000 Guineas and Richard Hannon is currently 1/26 for a 3.85% strike rate. The trainer is on 15% for horses running to form over the last 14 days and that is as low as I have ever seen for that stat. Her four stars from Timeform in reflection of her chances looks generous to me in the circumstances. Love represents a master trainer but is short now and I can't see Raffle Prize staying the trip One of the weakest 1000 Guineas in a while in my opinion. I will watch in hope more than confidence and Boomer has zero tips in a race dominated by Millisle with six selections. Even Gosden's Shimmering gets one tip and her official rating is 80
