So here are a few early thoughts/questions for tomorrow, no selections or anything at the minute.
13:00 - Race looks to have very little pace in it. Front runners might get an easy thing of it. Who front runs? Stone Mason and Heavenly Tale are both dropping in trip for their handicap debuts, and both run for new trainers.
I would guess that Heavenly Tale will be ridden prominently, given she looked very one paced in her last run for Ralf. She was owned by Qatar, so its no surprise to see them let her go, and she might be one to progress this year for a yard that is pretty shrewd. The yard are 1 from 12 with first time out runners joining from other yards.
Stone Mason comes from a yard who do very well with horses first time for the trainer (68 from 365) and he does fit into a betting strategy because of that. He is owned by the horsewatchers who are pretty shrewd, and it looks as if the market has found him as the favourite. He ran well on his four qualifying runs and now goes handicapping off a decent looking mark for a new yard.
Ghaddbaan caught my eye to a degree last time, and comes here off the back of two qualifying runs (is this a route that is going to be profitable I wonder) and is obviously a horse they hope will improve for racing, given that he has been on track for such a limited amount of runs so far. He is a big unit of a horse, and it could be that he wasn't fully tuned up when making stable debut earlier in the season. If he is strong in the market it would be very interesting.
The one that caught my eye for the place market is Curfewed who is drawn in the middle to high, has been pretty consistent at the course and can go well again. However I am slightly concerned about fitness of runners from that yard (8 from 256 winners, 36 placed after >50 days off)
13:35 - on the book it looks a one horse race with Mutaasamy being that horse, however again the race doesn't seem to have a lot of early pace in it, and could that cause problems for the favourite? Varian is 28 from 125 with runners at Newcastle on the all weather, which is a pretty decent record, but the expected winners is 30 from those horses and their odds. He is 7 from 25 with runners here that have been off for more than 50 days, so perhaps it is a promising statistic for this runner on his return from 300 days off. He is drawn in the correct part of the course and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the front four from the start.
Should he be as short as he is currently? I had him priced up at 5/4 so I think the market is wrong.
3:20 - This is an interesting heat, and one that I like a few runners in. The key here is that we look to have more front runners and a very tightly grouped field in terms of handicap marks. The three on my radar are Tathmeen, Yousini and Wild Edric, all drawn high and all racing from off the pace. So I doubt we will see all three getting a clear run, I do think all three are feasibly treated in the handicap and have form that suggests that they could go well here.
4:30 - A decent pace should be had here too, and that again should help those horses who are held up, Be Proud is one of those but I didn't like his effort last time out and my eyes are drawn to Requinto Dawn who ran an interesting race last time before coming down with a furlong to go. He is drawn high which means that he will need to get a good ride to get the gaps, but he could easily be a horse who can run a good race in a competitive handicap.
5:05 - Race of the day, Stoute and Gosden bring runners up and that makes it a very interesting market. I think the market has this wrong, but if either of those gets punted further, we might see a decent bet in here. Will come back to this one tomorrow afternoon!
13:00 - Race looks to have very little pace in it. Front runners might get an easy thing of it. Who front runs? Stone Mason and Heavenly Tale are both dropping in trip for their handicap debuts, and both run for new trainers.
I would guess that Heavenly Tale will be ridden prominently, given she looked very one paced in her last run for Ralf. She was owned by Qatar, so its no surprise to see them let her go, and she might be one to progress this year for a yard that is pretty shrewd. The yard are 1 from 12 with first time out runners joining from other yards.
Stone Mason comes from a yard who do very well with horses first time for the trainer (68 from 365) and he does fit into a betting strategy because of that. He is owned by the horsewatchers who are pretty shrewd, and it looks as if the market has found him as the favourite. He ran well on his four qualifying runs and now goes handicapping off a decent looking mark for a new yard.
Ghaddbaan caught my eye to a degree last time, and comes here off the back of two qualifying runs (is this a route that is going to be profitable I wonder) and is obviously a horse they hope will improve for racing, given that he has been on track for such a limited amount of runs so far. He is a big unit of a horse, and it could be that he wasn't fully tuned up when making stable debut earlier in the season. If he is strong in the market it would be very interesting.
The one that caught my eye for the place market is Curfewed who is drawn in the middle to high, has been pretty consistent at the course and can go well again. However I am slightly concerned about fitness of runners from that yard (8 from 256 winners, 36 placed after >50 days off)
13:35 - on the book it looks a one horse race with Mutaasamy being that horse, however again the race doesn't seem to have a lot of early pace in it, and could that cause problems for the favourite? Varian is 28 from 125 with runners at Newcastle on the all weather, which is a pretty decent record, but the expected winners is 30 from those horses and their odds. He is 7 from 25 with runners here that have been off for more than 50 days, so perhaps it is a promising statistic for this runner on his return from 300 days off. He is drawn in the correct part of the course and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the front four from the start.
Should he be as short as he is currently? I had him priced up at 5/4 so I think the market is wrong.
3:20 - This is an interesting heat, and one that I like a few runners in. The key here is that we look to have more front runners and a very tightly grouped field in terms of handicap marks. The three on my radar are Tathmeen, Yousini and Wild Edric, all drawn high and all racing from off the pace. So I doubt we will see all three getting a clear run, I do think all three are feasibly treated in the handicap and have form that suggests that they could go well here.
4:30 - A decent pace should be had here too, and that again should help those horses who are held up, Be Proud is one of those but I didn't like his effort last time out and my eyes are drawn to Requinto Dawn who ran an interesting race last time before coming down with a furlong to go. He is drawn high which means that he will need to get a good ride to get the gaps, but he could easily be a horse who can run a good race in a competitive handicap.
5:05 - Race of the day, Stoute and Gosden bring runners up and that makes it a very interesting market. I think the market has this wrong, but if either of those gets punted further, we might see a decent bet in here. Will come back to this one tomorrow afternoon!
