NZ is down to one active infection. It is hoped that that person will have recovered by the start of next week. Iceland has three active cases. Interestingly NZ and Iceland made different policy decisions early on. NZ locked down and Iceland had a massive testing programme.
We have two care homes within 8 kms from here, that look after 250 aged people in total. The emergency plan that is in place to protect the residents against an outbreak of winter flu was brought into effect, which follows the lockdown approach, and thankfully they have not lost anyone. There was quite an outcry a few years ago when there was a heatwave in the summer, and it took far too long to provide enough fans and cooling systems to prevent losses. Last year we had a very long hot summer, and it seems that the preparation had been worthwhile as there were no reported losses again.
Renault has announce nearly 5,000 job losses in France, with up to 4 plants closing, plus another 10,000 jobs lost worldwide. There remains strong rumours Renaults will be built in Sunderland in future, but this is difficult for the French government which wants to encourage more production in France.
I told you yesterday that Renault was reducing their workforce by 10% brought about by natural wastage. It seems that my facts have been born out, while you are are still in the rumour market.
It is still jobs lost in a country very poor at creating new jobs. Macron should have tamed the unions years ago.
It is good to see that north of the border there is a leader who can speak in whole sentences. Straight forward and honest. "I said yesterday I was nervous ahead of these changes and that’s still the case. If too many of us change our behaviour a bit more than these changes are designed to allow, we could see the virus spread quickly again and we will be back to square one. I’m not trying to cramp anyone’s fun. I want everyone to enjoy these changes - you have more than earned it. But I am asking for you to do it responsibly. I am appealing to your judgment and your sense of solidarity to each other. Please stay within the rules. If you are in doubt about whether your plans are within the rules or not, err on the side of caution. However harsh these rules might feel right now, and I know that they do, abiding by them will never, ever be as harsh as grieving the loss of a loved one."
Wednesday Johnson told the joint committee of MPs that he hoped the threat level would reduce from level 4 down to 3. If that happened he would be able to announce some relaxation of the rules on Thursday. It has now been shown that the science experts said that it hadn't dropped, and it still remains at level 4. Now confirmed. Despite what he said he has ignored the advice and started to relax the regulations. What reasons could he have for doing this apart from wanting to divert attention from Cummingsgate, for this makes no sense? If it was unsafe before yesterday, it is still unsafe today.
Thought this worth sharing - a comment from an Aussie living in Scotland who has had more than his fair share of problems with the Home Office. COVID-19 has been the single biggest preventable loss of life in UK history. According to the Financial Times yesterday, "The UK has registered 59,537 more deaths than usual since the week ending March 20..." - So, 60,000 deaths in the UK, almost entirely due to COVID-19, and thousands more still to come. But how to know that they were preventable? Well, we can compare to other countries. But that's a bit tricky. You can't just pick, say, Germany. They've got heaps of road access into their country, and border control in the Schengen Area is actually pretty difficult, logistically speaking. You've also got to look at the sort of government in charge. Dictatorships have an advantage here, believe it or not - the guy in charge just says, "Do it!" - and it's done. So, what we're looking for, ideally, is countries that are island archipelagos a few hundred miles long, with no road links to other countries - just air and sea ports. They also should be parliamentary democracies, with similar bureaucracies to execute pandemic planning. Well, were in luck - because such places exist. Say hello, New Zealand. Just like the UK, UnZud (sorry, Kiwis, I couldn't help it - but I'll make up for it in a second please log in to view this image ) is a constitutional monarchy, run by a parliamentary democracy. Their island archipelago is also a few hundred miles long, and the only way to get there is by sea or air. Their death toll? 22. Yep, less than two dozen. Take a bow, New Zealand. Here, I have to admit that there has been quite reasonable criticism of the the use of NZ as a comparison. That's because their population is less than five million, a fraction of the UK. The critics are not wrong. Say hello, Japan - population 132 million, or twice that of the UK. Japan is another constitutional monarchy, run by a democratic parliament. Just like the UK, it's an island archipelago with sea or air access only - and they got hit by COVID-19 much earlier than the UK. Japan had much less time to learn about this new disease, or prepare. Their death toll? 882. Even if we compare with Japan, that means 58,665 deaths more than we had to endure. So far. For context, in terms of UK citizens harvested by the grim reaper at one go: That's more than 38 Titanics. It's more than 21 D-Days. It's more than 600 Hillsboroughs. And about 97% of those deaths could have been prevented, if we had a government like those led by Jacinda Ardern or Shinzō Abe. Instead, we've got Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings, and the second-highest death rate for any state making such records available. First, hold them to account. Second, get Scotland the hell out of this mess.
Only half of people who develop coronavirus symptoms self-isolate for at least a week, according to government science advisers, raising urgent questions about the success of the test, trace and isolate strategy needed to contain future outbreaks. Urgent work is needed to work out how to get people to comply. Therein lies a problem for the government. Tell people to go out and fire up the BBQ because it changes the subject from the current scandal , but in so doing puts even more lives at risk. SAGE are not happy as the figures for new infections are too high to allow this approach. No wonder that Johnson is trying to prevent the advisors being heard.
I don't pretend for one minute that I understand a great deal of this research paper - but it has sure as hell convinced me that wearing a mask when out & about is a sensible idea... https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117
Remember how the government was always following scientific advice? Today it was asked why relaxation of the rules had been approved before the tests had been met. New wording now. ...in conjunction with the scientific advice or We remain engaged with scientific advice. So now the government knows better than SAGE?
Like you BB I do not fully understand the models he is using. We have been told here that a mask is not to protect you, but to stop you passing the virus to others. From what parts I do understand this seems to fit. I have my mask that the government supplied and use it when I go into buildings of any sort. They are now widely available in many of the shops, and most people do as I do, and use them. 324 more people died yesterday in the UK according to the latest figures compared with 66 here. If by wearing masks we are saving the lives of others then so be it.
Pretty clear indicator for wearing masks... Such a shame uk govt is only doing the minimum... Lives lost as a result.. Clear message folks.. Wear masks when close to others and in enclosed areas with others
An interesting read on why Johnson doesn't want to sack Cummings. https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/28/five-things-dominic-cummings-could-have-over-boris-johnson/
All very interesting. He has certainly taken steps to obscure his past. The new track and trace app on the IOW will retain data from a mobile phone for 20 years. It seems that you will have the right to request that it is removed, but there is nothing to say that it must be done. Central holding of information on medical issues could be very helpful in the future. Also seems that Cummings is part owner of the farm that he retired to. Inheritance planning no doubt. Therefore he was actually going to a second home, and that was banned
Me neither, especially where the unelected bureaucrat running the sorry ****show that masquerades as government is concerned. In other news, have you heard the ads for 70,000 agricultural pickers needed to stop our crops rotting in the field? FFS.
SAGE adviser Prof John Edmunds told a science media briefing 8k new infections a day (as calculated by ONS) was “a very high incidence” level - “many of us would prefer to see incidence down to lower levels before we relax measures - lifting the lockdown is a political decision” In my opinion there are too many political decisions being made simply in the hope of populism. The 14 day quarantine rule that was supposed to show that we had control of our borders we now find out is simply impossible to enforce. Relaxation of rules on gatherings from Monday, but people are saying that nothing will change between Sunday and Monday, so let's get together over the weekend. Set targets that are impossible to meet, then fiddle the figures to make it appear that you are successful. If Johnson is seeking populism then perhaps he should take note of his own backbench MPs who have been swamped by emails and the million plus people who have signed a petition, all saying that Cummings should go. The longer Johnson takes to get a grip on the situation, the longer he takes to realise that spin is no substitute for honesty, then his popularity that has already seen a major fall will continue to slide.
Interesting statistics coming out of Germany. Virologists are surprised that loosening of the lockdown here has not been accompanied by a rise in the numbers of new cases - they are still falling despite shops and businesses reopening. They identify 5 factors at work here: 1. There has been little change in people's behaviour despite the loosening of rules - they are still distancing themselves socially, although, in many cases it's no longer compulsory. It appears that the Germans were sufficiently informed as to why the restrictions were taking place and understood the need for them. 2. The compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and in shops has allowed many businesses to reopen, which would not otherwise have been the case - and if everyone wears them then it does make a difference. 3. 400,000 tests per week allow the authorities here to isolate new clusters quickly and apply rapid tracing on a localized level - much easier in Germany with ID cards, compulsory registration and a very much more decentralized structure. 4. The summer is putting a break on the infection rate anyway - people are spending more time outdoors where the circulation of air is different, and where ultra violet sun rays make it more difficult for the virus to live outside of its host. Also air humidity plays a role because virus droplets get heavier and sink quicker. 5. The decreasing infection rate could be the beginning of the end of the pandemie, without a second wave. Viruses can disappear naturally even without an innoculation being available and virologists are seeing a similar pattern to pandemics which have disappeared in the past. The presumption is that we have more immunity than has previously been realized, from previous Corona outbreaks (and all flu outbreaks are related to this) - if you have had a dose of the flu over the last couple of years, then it may provide some antibodies which are of partial protection here. At any rate we can discuss the ways of restarting the economy, through cash injection or any other means but the best thing we can do for the economy is to bring the pandemic to a speedy end.
