Off Topic SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19

It'd be interesting see how Cornwall under lockdown looks this weekend, bank holiday, good weather and all that...

 

Fortunately Plum its absolutely pissing it down here.

 

And they weren't because their successful preventative measures avoided the need - a correct balancing of risk on that occasion. I did have a peripheral involvement the time and my own impression was that the government we're overreacting - I was obviously wrong.

 

I'm assuming you mean H1N1 or swine flu as it was known and not SARS itself as SARS has had no known cases since 2004 , eveything since then has been new mutated strains of the original SARS.

When you read up on that pandemic I think it was probably "dealt with" better as it was a bit more dicriminate than what we are dealing with now , the age group affected back then was of school age in the vast majority of cases, where as CoVid 19 is affecting people (and a lot of people) of all ages. When you are primarily dealing with school age people as the transmitters of the disease you can quite easily isolate them from each other with simple school closures and stay at home orders for the age group, this wouldnt have affected the economy or general way of life in any way shape or form as much as CoVid19 is doing, I think this is why we are suffering and mistakes have been made , because it literally is a disease that stops the world turning economy and socially and thats why the margins for what people do and when are so fine..

Dreading the autumn/winter to come

 

Yes your correct that it was the swine flu pandemic and the preparations were largely based on the experiences of those affected by the SARS outbreak in 2003 or so. I'm not sure that there was any specific tailoring of plans to cater for a young target population, it certainly wasn't an issue raised when, as a recently retired worker, I was invited back to work up in Newcastle.

 

I disagree
All that was needed was a strategic decision to get a stockpile up, then take PPE from that pile and restock the pile on a cycle.
Nothing out of date, and no ongoing cost other than the initial stockpile cost and storage.
Frankly it’s very easy to manage if you wanted to

 

Exactly that. The first thing I always remember from my business studies A-level was FIFO. First in first out.

 

The questions are related to a) volume required, b) what's the sell-by-date, and c) when's it going to happen ?
Mystic Meg economic analysis.
Risk analysis is a difficult task to perfect.

 

We’re not using any PPE that isn’t regularly used.
And yes we should stockpile, it’s not a random event it’s been the highest risk for this country for years according to the Govt, until we’d arranged UK based manufacture and raw material sources which would have been a far better option and could have been done 4 years ago

 

Difficult maybe, but not impossible
It’s how insurance companies make money

 

Millions. The average care home would use 1000 a week, if they could have 1000 a week. Instead they clean and reuse when they should be discarded and new used.

 

Having worked for one for 30 + years I'm quite familiar with actuarial concepts.
Major factor in setting assumptions & therefore pricing is experience.
"Out of the blue" events always put a Spaniard in the works.
Covid-19 is one such event. Despite "similar" past events.

 

How can it be out of the blue when it’s been top of the published risk register for years?

 

So excluding hospitals, GP’s, home care workers or anyone else that would need face shields. Going off care homes alone. There are 21,723 in the U.K. That would be 21,723,000 needing stockpiling to last a single week.

Are you starting to see the foolishness of this PPE bull ****?

 

Better than a spanner !

 

No point in me guessing how many we normally use, given how inaccurate your guess was for how many we’re using now.
But someone will know it and be able to calculate the volume needed. If some go out of date on a cyclical basis so be it.
It’s prevention for an identified risk, it’s expensive, in the same way that Trident is for similar reasons.
Of course as I said stockpiling is only necessary until you sort out the actual answer of UK based production

 

nope

 

Even if you only used half a million a week in normal circumstances you can hold a stock of 50 million and cycle through that stockpile over 100 weeks. It’s how loads of businesses work, where just-in-time supply isn’t good enough.