Just noted that there is around £4000 traded on the Arc meeting in the past hour whilst I've been doing my NH 10 to follow. That's a fair old volume in that space of time compared to the movements of the last 3 or 4 days. All of the 400/1 on Dubai Prince that was available has now gone, and currently he sits at 33/1. Whether that stays that way and gets confirmed within a couple of days we'll have to see, but it is interesting. Workforce appears to be a positive along with Meandre, they seem to have shortened by around 1pt, if I remember their prices from an hour ago correctly.
Look folks, I don't know what I'm doing here. I sit here scratching my head about Workforce. There seems to be a pretty strong belief that the horse prefers going with some give in it. But from what I've seen so far, I think he's a class act on top of the ground. His stunning win in the Derby, I think attests to the theory. To win by seven lengths in record time on "good to firm" doesn't look all that bad to me. His win in the Arc was on soft, so that's one each. Then in that memorable clash with So You Think in the 10f Eclipse on "good to firm," he showed that he's a serious animal in better conditions. The fact that he won the Arc on a soft track, just adds to the talent of the animal. It appears that the accepted thinking at the moment, is that he likes it soft, but goes well on good to firm. Personally, I think he's equally talented on both surfaces. If I owned him, he's be running in the Arc, rain, hail or sunshine.
Cyc, you should take Workforce’s couple of performances on fast ground as exceptions rather than rules. He ran in the Derby on fast ground and won well but ran miserably at Ascot next time. Sir Michael Stoute has pulled the horse when the ground has been fast but I guess they let him take his chance at Epsom as there is only one Derby and he was only three once. Last year he went straight from Ascot to Longchamp, as he will do this season. The ground at Longchamp on Sunday will be good at best as they water the track to produce such going even if it doesn’t rain. Any horse that must have fast ground will always be disadvantaged in France.
Snow Fairy is another big market positive, traded around 27s last week, just gone to 19s now. I have to say I am surprised as I can't see her beating Sarafina or indeed any of the top colts.
TopC: Snow Fairy is getting backed off the back of a front page write up in the RP i should think mate
Just seen an article on ATR saying Dettori is hoping to ride her- that seems to rule out Dubai Prince. Very odd for Godolphin to not have a runner.
Connections said that they would run Snow Fairy provided that the ground did not come up soft as she has limited other opportunities in Europe. With a decent weather forecast (sunshine and 26 degrees all week), there is every prospect of good ground. Godolphin had 24 amongst the original 117 entries. My suspicion is that the ill-fated Rewilding would have been their number one contender from their older horses as Mastery appears to have disappeared off the radar. Of their three-year-olds, Casamento would appear to have the best form, French Navy has yet to try the trip and there has been no word about Genius Beast and Ocean War. Whilst Blue Bunting holds an entry, I don’t think the race is in her plans.
It must be said that it looks a little ominous regarding Nathaniel. He's out to 16.5 on Betfair and the best lay price is 29s. There seems to be quite a few stories about stating that the ground is a concern. His participation must look in doubt at this stage, especially with the option of the Champion Stakes as a back up. If he misses the race i think i'll take a price about So You Think. They were going to be my two against the field but i think i'll settle on the Aussie import if Nathaniel goes elsewhere. On a side note, Nathaniel going to the Champion Stakes would be a big coup for Ascot. If he were to run there as well as the two Cecil horses, Midday and Twice Over, it starts to look like a half decent race. Add Frankel to the mix and its a pretty smart card. Possibly better than they had anticipated for the first year . . . Edit: Literally just out to 20s in the time it took me to write that. Looks a non-runner in anyone's book.
He has been threatening a drift all weekend and now it happened- have to say he looka very unlikely. What a shame, as he deserves his chance as well
22s now and only £7 on the lay side! Very ominous. So tempted to go in, but i must resist. The Betfair market is rarely wrong.
It will be the weather forecast at this stage. Horses that are deemed to favour soft ground are likely to be friendless on the Exchanges. When the first forfeit stage comes along on Wednesday, the shape of the market could change quite significantly as lots of the outsiders disappear from it.
Who will be the big shorteners then? Surely the 7-1 Workforce will be slammed if he stays in on Wednesday.
It is rare we get fast ground on a French track. If we think the going will be 'good'- would Nathaniel take his place? The Reliable Man drift is strange. Does he like it soft?
Although I am pleased about my ante post (25/1) on Snow Fairy I would not get too excited about the going in Paris. Unlike the flat in the UK I think, as for the Cheltenham Festival, the ground will be watered to produce good to soft for Saturday morning. What happens after that is anyone's guess. It is therefore premature to dismiss Nathaniel or Reliable Man. If I played the exchanges I would hoover up the false prices about Nathaniel. Still waiting for status of Danedream.
Yep, with the long range forecast saying it's going to be fast ground anything that appreciates a bit of a firmer surface has shortened. Meandre beat Seville on firmer ground two starts ago. Reliable Man on the other hand is very much like Nathaniel and will not handle the hard surface. It's shaping up to be a good race although not particularly high on quality if half the field pull out due to the ground.
For my money the Breeders Cup weekend has absolutely nothing on Arc weekend. You get real quality turf horses in 6 days time. In a month it's a load of turf also rans and a poor bunch of 3 year old dirt specialists. There is no comparison.
