Off Topic SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19

No problem, was intended to be a self-criticism that I missed out an important element of my original announcement - a link ! (If you're gonna feed the animals, give 'em a spoon ) I've redirected the audience to your post
On the scheduling thing, looks like the Beeb have to be flexible with this global issue. Part 2 probably was already in the can, but needs significant modification given the fluidity of events.
Cheers

 

At the risk of sounding glib, the spikes in death rate aren't that unusual with each wave of flu every few years either. My great aunt died a few years ago in a care home, as a result of a flu outbreak that contributed to the almost doubling of the death rate for the year quarter - it was barely reported in the news, but over Europe was tens of thousands of deaths.

 

Fair comment

 

DON'T book summer holidays yet': European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warns against making travel plans to the continent

Jet-setters hoping for a European getaway this summer have been warned by EU chiefs not to start making holiday plans amidst the coronavirus crisis.

Countries in the European Union are being warned to keep their borders closed until September by key player, France.

It comes as France told EU leaders this weekend that it would maintain strict border controls until October 30.

 

Just Why?

 

seemingly these are among those not in the official statistics.

Two of UK's largest care home providers report 521 coronavirus deaths

HC-One, which operates about 350 homes, said that as of 8pm on Monday there had been 311 deaths from confirmed or suspected Covid-19, with outbreaks in two thirds of its homes. MHA, a charitable operator, said there have been 210 deaths across 131 homes, with outbreaks in about half of its homes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/uk-care-home-providers-report-521-coronavirus-deaths

 

This is *not* a forecast, just 1 scenario of many that could unfold...

 

Some doctors are putting dementia as the cause of death in some care homes, when it's more likely to be covid19.
A friend of mine lost his elderly step-father in a home on Sunday 5th april to dementia but think it was the virus.
If this is the case the figures will be under-reported. Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised.

 

my apologies; it appears that you were right. i had expected cases other than deaths in hospitals to be accumulated and not all were being, in particular ones in care homes.

 

I think too many people at putting 2 & 2 together and making Covid 19. Dementia and COPD are the most common causes of death in care homes. Only unexpected deaths are investigated. As testing for Covid 19 does not take place, it cannot be put down as the prime cause of death. Whilst Covid 19 may be the reason that someone dies, in most cases, it only is a contributing factor. The people die of the longer term illness and their bodies not being able to cope with the additional burden of the virus. It is the same with seasonal flu and even Norovirus. Even the Common Cold, if caught by someone with low immunity, could contribute to their death, but the cause of death will still be recorded as the pre-existed condition.

 

Thats what I was trying to say earlier when I pointed out that deaths across the board are 59% higher in week 14 of the year than the 5 year average. It's just he said it better than me because I don't know how to draw graphs!

 

Pfft, you know most of us need pictures.

I'm just so glad I don't have to turn any of this data into action.

The decision if/when to go into lock down was a monumental one, but it pales into nothingness when you have to decide how and when to lift it, especially with the mess of data available.

For all the decision makers get slagged off, I bet many of them have very restless nights with the weight of knowing that the outcomes of their decisions are liable to be hanging over them for years.

Unfortunately, those decisions will be dissected with the full benefit of hindsight and selective "I told you so's".

 

Could be worth checking your vitamin D levels and topping up if deficient.

 

Hopefully me.

Im working on a moonshine that would be used as a preventative medicine. I’m hoping for 100% effectivity and a constant stream of sales.

 

I'm on it.

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