Coronavirus

I'll see how many actually death we have then before being able to decide whether they've approached it correctly.

As should you.

We're not getting half a million deaths, never were. They've not 'done nothing'.

And steps since are all to manage the peak and strain on NHS and, ultimately, amount of mortality.

Ignore Johnson for second, do you simply also 'not believe' the others who have been stood with him at the press conferences?

 

@Roy Munson hello mate, I see you've woke up

 

No,
We can see the effects of these policies in other countries already to know how effective they are at controlling the situation.

Infections of this virus are doubling in the UK every three days, the death rate is doing the same. We have already had more deaths than south korea who adopted the WHO guidance imediately.

The document I have shared is the guidance the UK government used on Monday to change tack . It makes clear the government got this badly wrong and our prime minister failed to take leadership in this.

"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US. In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity."

 

Tbph you only activate your account to get involved in negative debates. Likewise I've never seen you make a positive contribution. It's boring. We are all in this together, constantly moaning about every little thing the government does, achieves nothing, much the same as panic buyers, you want people to buy into your negative attitude, not to save lives, but because you THINK you are more knowledgeable than others. Boris has the Chief Medical Officer alongside him, I very much doubt you know more than him, if you did, you wouldn't have the time to be on this forum.

 

I don't think I'm more knowledgeable, I've made it clear this government have been forced to make an about turn because of the evidence that anyone can read.

The choices made to run a risky strategy at odds with the rest of the world is a political one.

 

Anyway enough to take your mind of Politics here is day 3 of my avoiding social contact journal .
Get up at 6 to get to to Sainsburys by 7 along with 300 crumblies . Soon realise that Sainsburys have either not received stock of many items or haven't had time to refill the shelves though did manage to get Organic Cornflakes.Ended up in a huge queue for checkouts with people right next to me . Store manager signalled me and i got to jump the queue and had a member of staff to load me bags who then came to the car & loaded it in for me
So after all this exposure get home wash hands & relax knowing i won't need to have contact with anyone but she who must be obeyed for at least 5 days.
A bit later Wife decides to do some washing . About 10 mins later the washer/dryer emits a dreadful high pitched wail and on rushing into kitchen see smoke rising from the back . Switch it off including power but still smoking . Ring 999 & told to evacuate so get wife outside and put her in the car out the way . Within 10 mins i'm in the kitchen with 5 firemen as they lob the washer outside they then install a heat alarm and leave with my grateful thanks .
Now got a couple of blokes coming on Sunday to install a new washer / dryer .

Not sure this avoiding social contact is going too well at present

 

Hope you get it sorted mate

 

I'm glad you and the wife are safe mate

 

The ICU bed demand contradicts completely the estimates i'm getting from people in the health authority that I live in.

I'm not going to pretend anything other than i know a couple of GP's and some people who work at both local hospitals, one of whom is the medical director of the main A&E hospital.

My mate (GP) told me initial estimates that 12000 icu beds will be required. This is if virus runs unchecked/unmanaged.

The estimate is now 10% of that, worst case scenario, with the director of medicine at Morriston now stating 'the number of those infected likely to remarkably low'. No figure attached admittedly but an interesting statement all the same.


The government approach is guided by Imperial anyway, that's what they state at the conferences, unless you're telling me that's a lie?

As to 'our' approach to it in comparison to other countries, just because Italy and Spain goes into lockdown, so should we at the same time? They are at different stages to us currently. Italy is the European epicentre, it's not exactly the same.


Anyway, clearly you're right and i'm wrong and I can't be arsed to argue about it so i'll leave it with the point that, personally, I'm buying into our current approach.

I'll leave the tin hats to others.

 

he

No bit I think my daughter will have to in a couple of months

Just bought her 1st flat In Dec
Luckily I cam help her after summer for a bit.
It just depends how it pans out !

 

It's not about me being right or wrong.
If your mate can give you the evidence he has then I'll happily read it, if you have a link to the director of medicine at Morriston stating numbers infected will remain low I'll read it.

In seven days we have gone from nothing will happen in weeks to we are only a fortnight behind italy in london and we are looking at needing a total lockdown.

 

Walked past Morrisons. Wouldn’t dream of going in right now as it’s rammed and zero attempts to keep a distance including old folk and disabled. Some people won’t have help which is fair enough but I feel a lot aren’t taking the help on offer and going about their tasks unnecessarily.

 

cheers
yeah we're fine - it never actually caught fire by the looks of it just burnt the motor out . Does show why you shouldn't leave these things running if you are not home though . Does seem a bit that it's one thing after another atm though which is a tad wearing to say the least .

 

When did anyone say nothing will happen in weeks?

Where was that said?


(the 'evidence' is simply what i'm told by them. Which contradicts the 'evidence' they were told in the first place. This thing is evolving.)

 

But you do think you are more knowledgeable - you even said to chief just now, let you read the evidence! As I said if you was any use to the situation, you wouldn't be sitting behind a keyboard right now, which tells, me, you are not a consultant, nor a doctor, neither a nurse, because you'd be too dead beat to post on here. But you keep posting your negative crap because it serves some purpose in your head.

 

My best take on this is English exceptionalism,
We chose to believe we knew better and refused to take part in the europe wide response meetings because we have left and therefore mustnt be seen to cooperate. The result of this misguided view is the mess we see today with measures being taken in a hurry and everyone trying to work out what exactly it will mean.

Small thing but my daughter now has no idea of when and what is happening with her A level results and going to uni.

 

I will .