Bloke on the local news Look East just moments ago is an expert in Viruses. He said we’re all going to get it one way or another it just depends when not if. 99% will get by fine, 1% (the older generation and those with other medical issues) are the ones that will require NHS treatment and this is why we’re slowing it down slightly. He said once you’ve had it, your body will build an immunity and you won’t get it again. Youngsters will get it and it’ll hardly show, they’ll build an immunity so later in life if they have problems associated with old age it won’t effect them. He said if you don’t get it this year you will next, symptoms last about 5 days. He said imagine a steep hill and a car parked at the top with the handbrake on, it needs to reach the bottom so letting it off slowly means a slow curve of infected allowing the NHS to cope with the 1% who are going to need it. He was adamant everyone will get it over the next 2-3 years, he stressed the 99% not having a problem but 1% of the population will and that’s the fear of letting the brake off too quickly, that 1% would be a huge strain if it happens too quickly, leave the brake on and you’re delaying the inevitable
I caveat this as I still don’t know enough about this virus. But the world doesn’t go into lock down every time there’s a flu epidemic, which happens annually and sadly affects fatally the same age group. I say this because I haven’t stopped going to work or for a beer at the pub. Admittedly I’m staying away from my elderly parents
He sounds like a barrel of fun! I'm no expert btw but i have also been reading up on the UK's apparent stance on herd immunity. Government look like they are happy for everyone of working age to be exposed to it. The idea is that if a certain number of the herd catch it and recover and become immune then the virus will die out before it infects everyone. An example would be 3 people in a room, 2 have had it and are immune, the other one can still catch it. In that room, nobody can get the virus. The one cant infect the two and the two are immune so can't have it. Result is that the virus has nowhere to go and dies out or becomes redundant as a risk. Now, one person with this virus will on average infect 2.2 others with it. This number allows us to compare it with other similar diseases. Ebola patients infect between 1.5 and 2.5 other people. The % of population required to catch Ebola and achieve herd immunity lies between 30% and 60%. With SARS the numbers are between 2 and 5 people infected per virus and a herd immunity figure of 50% and 80%. Comparably, if this virus was just left to rampage through the entire population of the UK then you would be looking at around 50-80% of population catching it (40-45 million) to achieve herd immunity. If we guess that mortality is 1.5% (very conservative figure) then that would mean nearly 700,000 deaths. This is the model that the UK government are starting to use. The alternative which seems to have worked in China and Korea is aggressively isolate it and drive numbers down and restrict the spread until a vaccine can be made (12-18 months) and immunise the herd in a controlled manner. The UK model seems a tad reckless. That's coming from a fit and healthy 39 year old.
That's fits with my understanding, we don't want the ones who need treatment to all hit us at once, that's why the Italians are close to breaking point. One thing that might not be quite right though, there are some suggestions getting it may not give immunity, you can still get it a second time though not quite so bad. But they don't know for sure, that's based on some Chinese cases, they need more data.
Because if they don’t slow it, those 1% will probably all die without medical treatment. Italy 60,000,000 population? They have the highest percentage of over 70s than anyone in Europe but for arguments sake let’s keep it at 1% needing treatment, that’s 600,000 people, their hospitals wouldn’t cope so a possible 600,000 deaths
Agreed but the 1% figure was those requiring NHS medical treatment, a percentage of those would respond to treatment so it’s not accepting 700,000 deaths but that amount needing NHS treatment The virus expert said we’re doing it exactly right, but then he could be the guy advising the government
The main point is that once say 70% of the population are immune, the rest wont get it. That's what Boris and the boys are saying we are doing. Also, that's where Merkel got that number from. It's a worse case scenario that we seem to accepting.
I’d add to this comment, I heard some expert saying they also don’t know for sure it won’t be like the common cold and keep mutating - which is why we keep getting colds, of course. But they just don’t know yet.
They are also saying that even if we get through this epidemic it will be back next winter like the seasonal flu - hopefully they will have a vaccine in production by then.
They will. Internal Chinese flights back today. Six weeks total shutdown seems to have done the business there. Also 38k released from hospitals in last week who have recovered. Hopefully same timeframe applies here and we might even see More Footie yet
Just my ruddy luck I'm on lanzarote and found loads of bars to watch the game in. Biggest trouble here is they have cancelled gatherings so St Patrick's day is cancelled. But the Irish bars will still be open.
I'm assuming you have a lady friend with you so I suggest you both self isolate for the duration on the assumption you can stand the pace