Daily Racing Thread Friday 13th. March 2020

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Definitely been a week to forgot for me punting wise. But onto Day 4.
Triumph: Goshen - Hard to get away from him, but his price is starting to put me off. Will stick an EW on Cerberus.
County: Sir Valentine for Twisters, small rise for a solid run in the Betfair when finishing 1l down after jumping the last awkwardly and slightly hampered at the same time. Tiger Tap Tap EW for Mullins.
Albert Bartlett: I expect Latest Exhibition to win as I think he is the best horse in the race, however this often goes to experienced hardy bastards and my pin is falling into another Twisters horse Redford Road.
Gold Cup: Delta Work for me here, he has been winning the right races and has been doing his best work at the very end, this further 2f will suit even more. He was an unlucky 3rd in last years RSA and I respect the 2nd season chasers here. Lostintranslation is drifting to a nice EW price and I will be having a play on him too.
Foxhunters: Shantou Flyer stayed on strongly to 2nd last year and I can see him getting his head in front.
Grand Annual: I like festival form in this race and Us and Them brings that here after last years Arkle. At a big price I can see Winter Escape running a nice race.
Martin Pipe: Horses with potential to be top drawer come out of this and I like Willies' Five O'clock. Another at a huge price could be Indefatigable who has solid form behind Dame De Compagne.
 
Ew Lucky 63/Acca:

2:10 - Thatsy 11/1 (5 places)
2:50 - Thyme Hill 11/2 (4 places)
3:30 - Delta Work 11/2
4:10 - Stalker Wallace 6/1 (5 places)
4:50 - Paloma Blue 10/1 (4 places)
5:30 - Front View 4/1 (5 places)

In the Triumph i have Solo in an ante post lucky 31 at 16/1 that also includes Ramses De Teillee at 14s and also used Skybet offer and done £10 win on Burning Victory at 14/1

Other bets:

2:10 - Rathhill 28/1 ew (5 places)
2:50 - Harry Senior 20/1 ew (4 places)
3:30 - Chris's Dream 25/1 ew (3 places)
4:10 - Alcala 50/1 ew (5 places)

Some very small stakes forecasts and tricasts thrown in too.

Finally placepots selections with my mate:

1:30 - (5) Goshen/(10) Solo
2:10 - (7) Mohaayed/(15) Thatsy
2:50 - (8) Janidil/(19) Thyme Hill
3:30 - (5) Delta Work/(12) Santini
4:10 - (11) Hazel Hill/(21) Stalker Wallace
4:50 - (4) Paloma Blue/(7) Greaneteen

Permed so 64 bets at 10p a line.

I have a had a free week which isn't bad but what we all want is a profit. Anything at all back today for me is a profit. I'm taking it as a victory that Cheltenham hasn't cost me anything.
 
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well it has certainly been an exciting week, best moment for me so far was seeing Champ bolt through and split the 2 horses labouring up the hill (although I didn't have any money on!!)
I just want to see Bristol DM get in the frame now, we have seen the demise of a few legends this week so far and the bookies have dodged all the big accumulators .
I was amazed how easy it was to move around on Wednesday, I think the crowd was a lot lower than stated and the TV coverage on the other days showed spaces that have never been evident previously.

Enjoy the final day folks, I'll be cheering home A Wave of The Sea & Stolen Silver in the first 2 and will then see what's left in the coffers!
 
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Good to soft/soft in places on the chase course at Cheltenham now. I don't think that will help Presenting Percy or Bristol De Mai but may suit Clan Des Obeaux and Delta Work. Santini has been described as a slow horse by some and you would have preferred proper soft for him on that basis.

Al Boum Photo has been saved for this one day but the stats show a clear tendency for the winner from the previous season to fail in the attempt for the double. He's strong in the betting this morning but at 3/1 he's one I couldn't back in an open race.

Santini is weak in the market at 6/1 but Kemboy and Lostintranslation are the ones the punters really don't want to know about with both contenders available at 11/1. Kemboy was ring rusty first time out and I felt he would win next time but his jumping was sloppy behind Delta Work in the Irish Gold Cup. He was an early faller last year and he needs to establish a good rhythm to have a chance. There was no fluke about his win from Al Boum Photo at Punchestown last season though, as both horses were involved in a protracted battle from quite a way out, with Ruby Walsh getting Kemboy home in decent style. Some will prefer Al Boum Photo's preparation for this race but Kemboy is four times his price in places today and SkyBet are offering FIVE places for each-way punters.

I felt Delta Work travelled best in last year's RSA but it seemed that Santini and Topofthegame stayed more strongly and fought out the finish. I would expect Santini to confirm the form over the longer trip today and 6/1 isn't a bad price. Clan Des Obeaux was below his best in last year's renewal and I don't buy into him being a stronger stayer simply because he is one year older now. He won a bad looking King George in 2018 and defended his crown in an even worse looking renewal where both the favourite Cyrname and Lostintranslation were huge flops on the day. I feel he will be outstayed today. Lostintranslation managed to beat Bristol De Mai in the Betfair race he had previously owned at Haydock. His King George flop meant that his soft palate underwent treatment but his preparation has not been ideal and they reach for a tongue tie, which looks a bit of a "Belt and braces" approach allied to wind surgery earlier. As low as 6/1 yesterday, it is an alarm bells job to see him at 12/1 this morning and the Tizzard stable have had a **** week that started with an abysmal effort from Fiddlerontheroof in the Supreme.

I was torn between Santini at 6/1 and Kemboy at 11/1 this morning. Al Boum Photo looks way skinny at 11/4 in places and the sword of Damocles of reigning Champion hanging over his head. Delta Work looks short at 11/2 for me.

I already have an ante-post on Kemboy and added Santini as my other bet at 6/1. Henderson has popped cheekpieces on and that may help him to stay in touch before staying on best.
 
If the official handicapper is correct Solo will win the Triumph today. He is 5 lbs clear of the others on 157 and Darver Star managed to place in the Champion Hurdle with a 158 rating. The Racing Post and Timeform have him well lower than that though on 145 and 144p respectively. I am a bit wary of how strong the win was for Solo last time and this is a very different test today. I can't back him myself and have seen Nicholls with similar types flop on their second start for the stable. Goshen is solid and will be thereabouts for sure. The ground may be drying out for him now though and he's short enough at 9/4 this morning.

I went with Allmankind who seems better value at twice the odds of Goshen. He is a point and shoot horse who will be taken on at the front in a race where several like to get on with it. He beat a solid yardstick in Cerberus, a horse just a bit short of the top ones in the discipline, and he did it in good style after seeming to set off a bit too strongly. I feel Allmankind may get the better of it out the front and be able to have the others in trouble turning for home.His all-or-nothing style may be hard to sustain over a career but for now I reckon he may just be able to burn bright from the front for long enough to land The Triumph Hurdle.

Last year's Triumph Hurdle lay in tatters in this year's Champion Hurdle with the 1-2 Pentland Hills and Coeur Sublime out with the washing and never involved but I feel this year's renewal looks a better affair and we may see some promising sorts for the future.

1.30 Allmankind 9/2
 
Happy Friday the Thirteenth winner hunting. I hope no-one is too superstitious... will the crowd all be coughing and sneezing by the time the Martin Pipe starts?

1:30 Aspire Tower
I normally avoid last time out fallers but the glut of front runners in this makes me think this will be run suicidally setting it up for someone and a fast pace might iron out this one’s occasional mistakes. Allmankind, Cerberus, Goshen (all wins on soft), Sir Psycho and Solo have all won from the front so something has to give.

2:10 Elusive Belle
Very hard pin-sticking in a race with so few with consistent recent form, so a little each way on one from Seven Barrows that has placed the last twice.

2:50 Monkfish
Mullins only triple handed in this one but I will go with the Townend selection as it has won over the trip, albeit an egg and spoon race. Expect his other two to fight out the finish with this one pulled up after clouting the first – that would pretty much sum up Mullins’ week.

3:30 Clan Des Obeaux
I am put off Santini by the prep and the price (Delta Work better form, same odds) and not convinced by Al Boum Photo last year and Presenting Percy (beaten 2019 fav), so going with Nicholls. The drying ground could make a big difference to how this is run and quite a lot of the form is from much softer going.

4:10 Hazel Hill
Pick one from a load of hunter chasers... nightmare. Go with easy cop out – last year’s winner with regular partner.

4:50 Greaneteen
Sharpening the pin only led me to the favourite but I think I will give it a miss at the odds in a huge field.

5:30 Five O’Clock
It may be five o’clock somewhere so hopefully I can have a Margarita with Alan Jackson and Jimmy Buffett with the bookies picking up the tab from the Finale.
 
Last day of the festival which hasnt always been kind to punters over years.Been a decent festival for me compared to last year's bloodbath. Happy to come out even today.
Goshen Win/ Sir Phyco Ew
Ciel De Niege Win/ Saint Roi Ew
Fury Road Win/ Cobblers Way Ew
Delta Work Win
Hazel Hill/ Kalabaloo Ew(125s)
Greaneteen Win/ Croco Bay Ew (33s)
Front View Win(Nap)/ Indefatigable Ew (50s)
 
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I'm putting a bit of faith in Paul Nicholls today in that he has said he thinks Solo is a full-cousin of Pegasus and that Clan Des Obeaux has manned-up since flattering to deceive in last years Gold Cup.
 
Only just about made it!

1.30 Sir Psycho
2.10 Stolen Silver
2.50 Ramses De Teillee
3.30 Kemboy
4.10 Alcala
4.50 Two Taffs
5.30 Espoir De Romay

I hope everyone enjoys today and has had an enjoyable week watching the best do their thing.

This evening, a choice of 2 films I think; Contagion and the original version of The Crazies.

Cheers.
 
up until he fell that was probably the performance of the week.

feel sorry for Moore
 
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