The fatality rate of this virus fluctuates enormously dependent on location Andy. At the lowest end of the scale Scandinavia has a combined 1,142 cases to date without one fatality. Also very low are the rates in Germany 0.12%, Switzerland 0.5% and South Korea 0.7%. At the higher end of the scale is Italy at 6.2% followed by China 3.9% and Iran (can we trust their figures) 3.63%. For countries like Germany this is actually less than for a major flu outbreak, though there is no guarantee it will remain that way. These are the percentages of 'tested' registered cases - if you take the grey area of untested cases into account then the fatality rate would drop enormously. Probably the most accurate picture is from South Korea because they are testing more people than anywhere else - not just those with obvious symptoms. How many people go to the doctor when they have flu ? It must be similar here - there must be many people wandering around with nothing more than a sore throat or cough thinking everything will be all right. The Korean approach is to get these people as well - and to get them quickly, before they can infect too many others. This infection only has a reproduction rate of around 1:2.5, meaning that the average carrier only infects 2.5 people (and this would include family members who are the most at risk), and this rate can be expected to reduce when it gets warmer - simply because infected droplets travel further in a cold dry environment. We have to follow the Korean example of expanding testing beyond those with symptoms, or just those that are recommended by a doctor. I have heard apparent experts saying that the spike will be from June to August - others that there will be a spike next winter. All I would say to those people is that both China and South Korea have their spike behind them and we should be looking at how they have done this - we need fewer experts and more doers.
Hope you are well OFH! Did hear there was advice that even if you have a cough then people ought to self isolate although not sure that will work - could people take advantage?
Thanks Mark I feel fine. Last Spring for the first time ever I needed some medication as I was suffering from hay fever. There was an extra large amount of blossom everywhere. Thinking back I had some symptoms that could have been mistaken for this virus. Most weeks apart from the neighbours I do not see that many people, the weekly trip to the supermarket is the largest crowd I get in. France has hotspots for the virus as most places seem to have, and so far none of them are near to here. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that according to experts, 60-70% of the German population could become infected with the coronavirus. "The process has to be focused on not overburdening the health system by slowing the virus's spread. It's about winning time." Reports from Italy are saying that they believe the spike in the number of people infected is not likely to be seen before next winter.
This is the first time that Angela Merkel has spoken on the subject and she comes out with doom and gloom comments based on what some so called 'expert' has said ! We need solutions and commitment and the ability to learn from what others are doing, and, above all, a belief that we can overcome this - but instead of an inspirational leader who can bring over the message that we have to sacrifice some things, and change our life style, we have a leader who is long past her sell off date - the wrong person in the wrong position at the wrong time. If South Korea can turn this around then we can !
Dr. Tedros Adhonou Ghebreyesus of the WHO has said he is ''deeply concerned'' by ''alarming levels of inaction'' and has called on governments to take ''urgent and aggressive action''. ''Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled'' ''The challenge for many countries who are dealing with large clusters or community transmission is not whether they can do the same - it's whether they will''. I hope a lot of the World's leaders take note of what he is saying - it is clear which countries he is referring to - the several countries which have demonstrated they can control this are China, South Korea, Taiwan and a couple of other Asian countries - fortunately Italy has broken ranks with it's sleeping European partners and is now moving in the same direction. Having requested extra spending from the EU and having seen EU bureaucrats dragging their heals on this, the Chinese are jumping in with the offer of testing equipment, medical support, doctors and specialists - hence the 2,300 spike in new cases in Italy today - they are now able to test many more people than before. Alarming has been the absolute lack of any response from the EU on this - member states have simply been left to their own devices, with no coordinated response whatsoever.
The doctor has good reason to be deeply concerned. This is the experience of someone who flew into Gatwick from Milan. The captain informed the port authorities that people with the coronavirus may have been onboard as the cabin crew reported a few people coughing, so we waited an hour and a half before disembarking but no-one came on board to check us. I find it crazy no one checked us. It was just like any other flight. In Italy, everyone is having their temperature measured. It is not happening in the UK and, most importantly, not on a flight containing people coming from the now quarantined areas. How else can you contain any possible risk? Its bizarre. We took the train home to Brighton and I measured my body temperature which was 37.5 degrees and I started having diarrhoea. We rang 111 and explained where we had been and were told we should be in quarantine. They gave us the option of driving to a tent for testing or waiting for someone to call us within 48 hours to arrange a home test. But more than two days later and we were not contacted. We rang them again this morning and they literally word for word said the same things. I’m sure I will be fine but I can’t understand why it takes so long to test someone who has a fever and has been in the area. I am sorry that what I heard today from Westminster did little to reassure me about my family in England. Whatever is needed by the NHS will be provided. Well just to get up to a normal level of hospital beds might help. Great, let's buy beds. Right where will we put them now that hospitals have sold off buildings. We are just starting to plan some new hospitals. Right, I assume they will come in a flat pack from IKEA? Where are we going to get the staff from to treat the people in these new beds and rapidly built hospitals. Anyone who claims to be a nurse or doctor will be given a fast track visa. Where will these nurses and doctors come from seeing as their own countries are having similar problems? Erm.....Matt Hancock will make a statement later!
So now Matt Hancock has made his statement, take a stopwatch and tape measure with you wherever you go. Stand two metres away from people and don't talk to them for too long. Why when you see countries in all sorts of places banning cross border or incoming travel from abroad do others seem quite relaxed about allowing it to continue? I can understand why the UK has got itself into this pickle because it believes in buying what you want rather than trying to produce it itself, and cross border travel is vital if the country is not to grind to a standstill. However a place like the USA is not in that position, and should be able to cope, but for purely political reasons the orange one is in denial.
Not at all. I am purely making my views known on things that I see going on around the whole world. You didn't complain when cologne stated his doubts about Angela Merkle or the part that the EU is taking, but as soon as I mention your beloved government you don't want to hear what it looks like. If you opened your eyes and ears you would also be questioning why some of the things such as people arriving at Gatwick sit there for an hour and a half, then are let off the plane to mingle with the population at large. Perhaps you would like to explain that in a non-political way.
There was nothing political in the post that you are referring to SH. The fact is that this virus has exposed the dangers of excessive globalization - it has also exposed that democracies of the West are less able to deal with a major crisis of this sort than countries in Asia - Italy has seen that and is turning to China for help as a result.
A Labour MP has just asked this question, so according to you it must be political SH. "Schools and colleges are closed in Madrid and public gatherings of over 1,000 people banned because there’s a cluster of 782 coronavirus cases and there have been 35 deaths." "Is it really sensible for fans who couldn’t watch their team at home to be able to travel to Liverpool and watch their team play with 51,000 locals? Is that really sensible?" What would be your answer SH?
I would stop large gatherings and end the EPL season, maybe let Liverpool win the title first. Of course the situation is much more serious on the continent with 48 deaths in France, 54 in Spain and 827 in Italy. They should be closing more than the Italian borders.
So what was the response from Matt Hancock? It wasn't the same answer that you have just given. So if you are allowed to disagree with your government, why is it wrong for anyone else to see the half hearted response from it?
I fully understand the government's dilemma, hopefully they will continue to take advice from the excellent Chief Medical Officer. It is easy for those bystanders that have no responsibility for the financial consequences of making decisions. I'm sure when the UK reaches the high number of deaths as currently being experienced in Europe the government will react with further instructions.
I need the UK government to declare Corfu, Spain, Spain again, and Lanzarote unsafe in the next few months so I can have a full refund on booked holidays. I bet there are some great deals on cruises at the moment!!
Maybe the Scots should be closing the border - there are, after all, ten times more cases south of it.
I should have guessed. Money. As you expect numbers of people to die in the UK to climb, there seems little point in not letting everyone in to get there quickly? Is that your point?
Inter Milan's clash with Getafe and Sevilla's game against Roma in the Europa League last 16 have been postponed due to coronavirus concerns, UEFA has confirmed. The region of Lombardy, where Milan is located, is at the epicentre of Europe's worst coronavirus outbreak which has prompted the Italian government to impose a nationwide lockdown and the match on Thursday at the San Siro was due to be played with no fans in attendance. The Getafe president Angel Torres has said, "I think they [UEFA] have been sleeping on their laurels. "There are people who are scared of UEFA, but I'm scared of the people close to me contracting this disease by going to the main epicentre of it where 262 people have died in two days.
