Fiddlerontheroof 8/1 Supreme Novices (could also go for one of the other novice events) Copperhead 8/1 RSA Defi du Seiul 9/4 Champion Chase Paisley Park 4/6 Stayers Santini 3/1 Gold Cup
That money seems destined to remain in the bookies satchels as Laurina’s formline, after yesterday, now reads –PP3. She has drifted from 12/1 to 33’s for The Stayers.
Didn't catch the name but someone interviewed in the ATR studio was asked for a banker bet and gave Ocean Wind in the bumper 16/1. Luke Harvey's was Itchy Feet in the Marsh, 5/1 fav
I know the title of the thread is 'will win' but I honestly don't think there's any bankers to win. I'd be quite confident that Santini won't place in the Gold Cup. Cannot believe its favourite. I don't know if there's a market for that sort of bet.
With the high street bookmakers Santini is around 'levels' to place in the race so you'd get a similar price re him not placing.
Appreciate It was confidently backed last time out and put in a statement performance with victory never really in doubt. In theory it was a match between the Mullins horse and Joseph O'Brien's Eric Bloodaxe but the betting suggested that there was only one winner and so it proved. The jockey on Eric Bloodaxe reported that his horse seemed lame at the finish but it was still a smart performance from Appreciate It who has won over further than two miles and that is a potent blend of assets for a Cheltenham Bumper. Watching that race it seemed to me that it was highly likely that we had watched the Champion Bumper winner and at 2/1 odds it poses a possible debate on who is the better bet to land a Festival race between Appreciate It and Altior, who sits at the same 2/1 odds for the Champion Chase. Altior faces Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Por Soi breathing down his neck in the betting and although there are large numbers in the Bumper field I do not see the same threat that there is to Altior in his race. Altior has been laboured in some of his successes in recent times and there was little to take from his defeat behind Cyrname, who subsequently stank the place out in the King George. Henderson declared that Altior was not fit enough to run when he met Cyrname but even the great ones decline with age and I still shake my head at the Racing Post having Altior running to 177 in defeat behind Cyrname. Appreciate It was rated 138 by The Racing Post for his latest win and Envoi Allen won last seasons Champions Bumper with a performance ranked 135 on the same ratings. Envoi Allen's personal best in NHF races was 137, so Appreciate It looks well up to the standard required. My own ante-post pick Ferny Hollow has run consistently in three bumpers, finishing second twice and then winning quite well. His ratings of 128,128 and 129 are respectable but not as progressive as I had hoped for and although it is nice having 33/1 on a horse generally 8/1 across the boards now I suspect he isn't likely to be able to beat Appreciate It. Panic Attack looks very short at 10/1 and it is odd that she moved to David Pipe from Willie Mulins only yesterday. That seems too close to the Festival for my liking. His RPR of 122 leaves her with a fair bit to find with the favourite in a short space of time and she looks poor value to me.
Just scouting YouTube for the preview evenings and Star Sports have got in there early with Dicky Johnson and Davey Russell on the panel. Here their Champion Hurdle preview:
Our friends over at Fat Jockey have a thread every year listing the preview nights. You can view them here
So the Guiness is settling in the glass, and the picture is becoming clearer... Mares Hurdle; Benie Des Dieux Ballymore Hurdle; Envoi Allen Cross Country; Tiger Roll Stayers; Paisley Park No need to back anything else, just stick that lot in your acca, and recoup what you've lost on the stock market. Warning: The value of your investment can completely evaporate at any point.
