Steeplechasing's "Blue Riband" event, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, is run over 3 miles and 2.5 furlongs on the Friday of the Cheltenham festival. There are 22 fences to be jumped during the race which covers just over 2 circuits of the new course. To win the Cheltenham Gold Cup a horse needs to find the perfect blend of athleticism, speed and stamina and bring their "A" game to a track whose undulations make this a unique test of a steeplechaser. Whilst there have been a number of multiple winners of the race down the years, Golden Miller's five triumphs between 1932 and 1936 make him the most successful horse in the history of the race. Cottage Rake (1948-50), Arkle (1964-66) and Best Mate (2002-04) were all triple winners and the list of other winner reads like a "who's who" of National Hunt racing - Kauto Star, Denman, Desert Orchid, Dawn Run, L'Escargot, Fort Leney and Mill House to mention but a few. The 2020 edition has 20 entries just a couple of days before the 6 day declarations but sadly that is already down to 19 with Native River out injured. We currently have joint favourites for the race at around 7/2 - Willie Mullins' defending champion Al Boum Photo (who is treading the same path as last year - just the one outing at Tramore on New Years Day where he won easy as you like) and Nicky Henderson's Santini (thrust himself to the head of the market with a gritty display in the Cotswold Chase, coming back after being headed by Bristol De Mai up the hill). Two more second season chasers, Delta Work and Lostintranslation, come next at around 6/1 and both look eminently capable of being involved at the business end. Delta Work won the Savills Chase and the Irish Gold Cup and is arguably the best chaser in Ireland,whilst Lostintranslation hosed up in the Betfair Chase and has had his wind done since pulling up in the King George (a race which probably doesn't play to his strengths). Talking of the King George, next in the betting is Clan Des Obeaux at around 7/1. The dual King George winner seemed to run out of steam at the business end of the 2019 renewal but is a year older this time around and physically more mature (according to his trainer). He looks primed to run a big race but there is already the suspicion that he may be a Kempton specialist. Next in the betting are 3 Irish horse who probably all deserve the description "enigmatic" - Kemboy stuffed Al Boum Photo at Punchestown on Ruby's swansong but has since disappointed twice (don't blame the jockey now); Presenting Percy is a dual festival winner (and to be fair his trainer is more the enigma); Monalee seems to always run his heart out but is a perennial bridesmaid. We are then into the bigger prices but the Twister's grey horse Bristol De Mai surely holds some interest for each-way punters at 25/1. This looks a very deep renewal and it is such a shame that Native River won't be here as it would probably have been his last real chance to claim his crown back. I still can't decide for the life of me what wins. I backed Clan Des Obeaux last year but he didn't get home and I worry the same could happen again. Al Boum Photo is trained by a legend and he will be spot on but the current price doesn't appeal. Exactly the same comment re Santini. I think at the current prices Lostintranslation might be worth a dabble. He just looks like a proper staying chaser and was imperious at Haydock. If the wind op has done the trick (and by all accounts he is showing them plenty at home) then he could be the answer.
Like you Oddy, I went for CDO last year. I thought he was still developing last year and am trusting him to make his challenge after the last and get up to win. I made the mistake of completely overlooking ABP last year; hopefully haven't done it again
ABP won so well last year, has had a good prep I just have to stick with him. Delta Work i rate the big danger. Elliott has been very sweet on him winning this all year and he is very capable of winning. BDM he is not as good as he has been the last 2 years so cant see him winning. CDO i feel would beat these right handed but left? No. Lostintranslation i think in with big boys he is not good enough and his beating of BDM was flattering. Santini, when the forums favourite poster said last year he would win the Gold cup i thought absolutely no chance. I still dont think he will but has obvious claims as the jolly. I think he will be like Might Bite after the last and can be passed. Kemboy, PP, Monalee, no chance.
A race with lots of questions 1 - How good was last years Gold Cup? Anibale Fly and Bristol De Mai finishing 2nd and 3rd and not too far away make the form look intriguing. I thought at the time ABP was a good winner (not in the Denman/Kauto league, but more like one of the best winners of the last five years) but I think the form does have a lopsided look to it, and that means that we have questions to ask. Kemboy exiting early and Native River not getting to the front are two of the questions in the race. So to answer the question - Probably not a vintage renewal but a very good winner. 2 - Are the second season chasers top notch? Well the RSA was the race of the festival for me last year, and I backed two of the front three for the Gold Cup the day after the race. Unfortunately one of the two I backed is the Nicholls horse, so I am not holding as strong a hand as I would like!! To me we've seen really good races from Delta Work, Santini and Lostintranslation, and we have also seen chinks in the armour of all three. Delta Work was sloppy on his return and whilst he has gone on from that, people may be concerned about his jumping in a big field and well run Gold Cup. Santini wasn't great on return but then put away Bristol De Mai in the Cotswold Chase, but I still think Santini is a bit of a boat, and that putting cheekpieces on him suggests that they think even on his Cotswold run that he needs to find improvement. I was all over Lostintranslation for the King George, and I don't know what would have happened if he hadn't made an awful mistake and forced his race to end early. However the fact they've tinkered with his wind means that something needed tweaking and they are hopeful that he is back. However coming into this without a preparation run means he has major questions to answer. So to answer the question - We don't know. We have indications that they are, but this is the acid test. 3 - How many people own Kemboy, and more importantly, can he write a wrong? Part A of the question should be a lot easier this season!! He however has been making mistakes in his races, and if he does that at Cheltenham then he will be out of the reckoning. He obviously has the engine, but does he have the attitude and style to win a big field Cheltenham Gold Cup? I don't think I would be backing him to do so. 4 - Clan Des Obeaux is he a bigger better version, or is he just not a Cheltenham horse? I don't think he is a better horse this season, and I think we saw him given a pretty good ride last year and he found the race too testing. I don't think he relishes the hill and I think he will find something staying on better than he will be. 5 - and then we have Presenting Percy! The big question mark ??? He was a spectacular RSA winner who didn't run well last year after the issues he had. He has been prepped nicely this year but he has lots to find with Delta Work. Is he plotted to perfection or is he just not as good as he was. I have no idea With so many questions, I am happy to be holding a nice antepost on Delta Work, but for me on the day it will be a decision to forecast the three second season chasers, or to back the champion. I'd be leaning to the former with the hope Delta Work leads home Lostintranslation or Santini
hardest Gold Cup to call in years i think. maybe that is because of the number of Irish horses prominent in the betting that I don't get to see that often. it is possibly a bit like the Champion Chase - the winner last year will take all the beating but there is a progressive other horse ( Santini) who has to be feared. where it is different to the Champion Chase and more complex is that there are more potential winners in the field.
Where did you get that from? There will be rain about but not at those levels. I predicted a soft ground start to festival and I would say will be soft pretty much all 4 days.. they 've been running on it for most of the winter anyway..
Really can't decide on the gold cup but will be there to sample the atmosphere as well as sampling Wednesday,! At present thinking Delta Work, Lostintranslation or Clan Des Obeaux. Already have ante post on Bristol de Mai at 50s so it will be one of those 3 on the day.. Another wide open race where you could make a case for so many...
