There are massive geographical variations in that rate, it’s being driven by Hubei province in China and Iran, and for some reason Italy. Everywhere else the mortality rate is much less than 1%. South Korea has the second highest number of cases, over 5000, but with only 33 deaths, less than 1%. Its 0% in the UK. That won’t stay the same, but the bald statement that 3% is the current mortality rate is not a prediction. It’s likely to be much less as the number of people who have contracted the virus and have not been included in the figures because they think they just have a cold may be exponentially bigger than the official numbers.
The ‘early dismissal of the seriousness’ was by people who don’t count, like me. The media has been bigging this up hugely because they get more clicks through spreading fear, and the experts, as you yourself have pointed out have offered contradictory opinions throughout, but they enjoy the attention as well.
This is a full blown crisis Col, no doubt about that, it’s very serious. But not because it’s unusual or an especially dangerous epidemic -4,400 people died of TB yesterday, but they were mainly poor people in poor countries - but because the reaction to it increases stress, panic and unrest. Reading a headline stat without looking at what lies behind it contributes to this. The Chief Medical Officer of the NHS has just said on the radio that the absolute maximum fatality rate is expected to be 1% here, and it’s very unlikely to reach that. Who do you believe?