The interesting thing is that the rates of serious case ie. stage 3 and 4, and also the death rates are very different according to location. In Germany there are 129 recorded cases up to now - 70 of those in North Rhine-Westphalia, but not one death and the numbers of those with only mild symptoms appears to be extremely high - 95% or so. Could it be that the further this gets from it's origin the weaker the strain becomes ? As the weather improves it could have an influence, as it would with a flu outbreak. Quite simply when you sneeze or cough the particles travel much more freely in cold and dry weather - in humid conditions (and warm air is always more humid) these particles become saturated and fall to the ground much quicker. The high death rates in China and South Korea could have to do with large numbers of people there already having respiratory problems - the same is true of Milan.
I believe that everyone is being told to avoid crowded areas. I don't know whether the weather being rubbish is a cause for it being quiet out there, or the fact it is not too long after Xmas but I went out at weekend meeting up with friends I haven't seen for ages and we went out for dinner in a very quiet restaurant. Even down in Bournemouth where I was today it was very very quiet. It could be the weather, my aftershave, or the virus threat...I'm hoping it's the first one
The stock market has been long overdue a correction for ages, Coronavirus is just the catalyst. Stocks are artificially high due to historically low interest rates persuading investors to move money into equities where returns are higher than in the loan markets. Meanwhile, all that cheap credit has created a debt bubble which could dwarf the one which precipitated the financial crisis of 2008.
Sounds as though this virus is very easily spread and Iran for one is heading for an epidemic. It certainly looks as though it's starting to spread here too. It is definitely spreading much faster than SARS etc. did. Even though it's likely to only kill the same vulnerable people as "normal" flu will, it seems quite likely that this thing will spread far and wide, meaning a very high number of (vulnerable people) deaths. I'm in a show in a provincial theatre near where I live, starting from 10th March and ticket sales are definitely down on what would normally be expected. Seems that even out here in South Oxfordshire people are getting spooked into not attending crowded areas.
It seems our government has a choice - to do what it seems to be doing, pondering measures to slow the spread of the disease in the hope that warmer weather will kill it, a course which will have an ongoing economic impact, or to let it run and get it over with, which might leave the NHS in trouble. The way individuals and through herd instinct groups react being the wild card. I struggle to envisage an average size British town in lock down, especially if there are shortages of foodstuffs and basics in the shops and the vast majority of people aren’t actually ill. Over 10,000 people have been tested for the virus in the UK, 36 have got it (all but 2 contracted it abroad), most have been released from quarantine, no deaths (this can’t last).
It certainly spreads quicker than SARS did, but appears to be spreading slower than a flu epidemic would. Germany is now up to 150 cases - which would be much higher for a flu epidemic. However, these are only the reported cases - we can presume that there are many unrecorded cases ie. people walking around who think they have a cold (or flu) and who aren't over enthusiastic about possibly spending 2 weeks in quarantine. Allowing that the number of unrecorded cases is probably higher than those which have been registered, then this takes the death level down to around what you would expect from a normal to heavy flu wave. In order to really get to grips with this it would be necessary to actually reward people for going in and voluntarily testing themselves, as opposed to punishing them with quarantine and possible loss of income - any self employed person, or freelancer, could have a problem with this. If it really hits the USA it could be very serious because of the numbers of people there without health cover. Unfortunately North Rhine-Westphalia (the state where I live) has become something of a hot spot for this, and the closest recorded case to me is a matter of only 5 miles - so it's a worry.
My son came home from school with a note, informing us that any child who had been to Italy, Singapore, mainland China, Twaiwan or Hong Kong over the recent half term, has to stay home for two weeks. Just had a course cancelled as the person I was meant to train is in quarantine, along with her whole village, because one person in the village was diagnosed with the virus over the weekend. She has to stay home for at least a week.
Apparently in the US, sales of Corona beer have fallen through the floor. Yanks won't touch it. Can't be too careful
'The number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus in the UK has increased again' we're told in doom-laden tones on every news broadcast. Well yes, unless you start excluding from the total those that have had the virus and recovered - or the virus is eradicated entirely - this will inevitably be the case, for ****'s sake! In other news, the number of confirmed cases of seasonal flu in the UK has risen by 10,000 to a total of 750 million.
Dropped off at Terminal 5 this morning, normally before 6.00am on a normal Monday morning there's at least a queue back onto the M25, this morning the slip road was almost empty. I, like many other drivers, didn't bother waiting for a pick-up. Traffic in most of Central London was light as well. It'll be interesting to see how much this impacts over the next week or two. If I had to rely on this job for a living I'd be in trouble...
china is nzs biggest trading partner already been some lay offs in the logging sector as they buy most of them shops are running out of tvs and vacuums apparently and there are delays of at least 8 weeks for supplies of clothing shops winter stocks warehouses were a wonderful thing
£ being smashed today against $ and € as traders speculate that the UK will be hit very heavily by coronavirus inspired economic downturn, coupled with government posturing about walking away from a trade deal with EU and speculation on Bank of England cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, another infectious illness, TB, killed more people today than coronavirus has in total so far. This is beginning to look very messy indeed.
please log in to view this image Chesham Dogging @MickJon95058639 Due to the #CoronaOutbreak all of our parties have been cancelled until further notice. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
