If we extrapolate the current league table, we’ll need about 15 points to stay up. I’m struggling to see fifteen points in these fixtures. Can anyone else solve this? Manchester United - Watford FC Watford FC - Liverpool Crystal Palace - Watford FC Watford FC - Leicester City Burnley FC - Watford FC Watford FC - Southampton Chelsea - Watford FC Watford FC - Norwich City Watford FC - Newcastle United West Ham United - Watford FC Watford FC - Manchester City Arsenal - Watford FC 5W or 4W 3D, or 3W 6D or 2W 9D? I just can’t see how we’re going to do this.
OK, IMHO... With 4W and 3D Best chances of three points currently are: Home to Norwich (could be tough, they were unlucky at Carrow Rd) Home to Newcastle (not easy) Away to West Ham (hopefully okay, but look at our Brighton away) Away to Palace (not easy) Best chances of draws from remainder currently are: Home to Southampton (not easy) Away to Burnley (not easy) Home to Leicester (not easy) Contingency games (where we’ll have to pick up points in case we mess up any pf the above): Away to Man Utd Home to Liverpool Away to Chelsea Home to Manchester City Away to Arsenal We’ve run out of plausible contingency games. We needed that Brighton draw to be three points. Because of that draw, any mistakes above and we’re going to have to pull a heroic victory against one of the big guns, and I’m not confident about that with current form.
I’m not a betting man at all, but Betway have us at 15/8 to go down. That sounds like good value to me.
I can see 13 points there... And IF we can pickup a win against won on the top clubs... Very very close this.. Not good
If 39 is the magic number, then Bournemouth need 13 points from 12 games. 4W & 1D, 3W & 4D or 2W & 7D (I’m ruling out 1W & 10D as improbable). I think the second option is most likely. IMHO... With 3W and 4D Best chances of three points currently are: HOME to Crystal Palace HOME to Newcastle AWAY to Burnley Best chances of draws from remainder currently are: AWAY to Everton HOME to Southampton AWAY to Wolves HOME to Leicester Contingency games (where they’ll have to pick up points in case they mess up any of the above): HOME to Chelsea AWAY to Liverpool AWAY to Man Utd HOME to Spurs AWAY to Man City I think that’s tougher than ours.
Villa. Need 14 pts from 13 games. 4W & 2D, 3W & 5D, 2W & 8D... With 3W and 5D Best chances of three points currently are: Home to Crystal Palace Away to West Ham Away to Newcastle Best chances of draws from remainder currently are: Home to Man Utd Away to Southampton Home to Sheffield Utd Home to Wolves Away to Everton Contingency games (where they’ll have to pick up points in case they mess up any of the above): Home to Spurs Away to Leicester Home to Chelsea Away to Liverpool Home to Arsenal That looks tricky. With 4W and 2D Best chances of three points currently are: Home to Crystal Palace Away to West Ham Away to Newcastle Away to Southampton Best chances of draws from remainder currently are: Home to Sheffield Utd Home to Wolves Contingency games (where they’ll have to pick up points in case they mess up any of the above): Away to Everton Home to Man Utd Home to Spurs Away to Leicester Home to Chelsea Away to Liverpool Home to Arsenal Hmmm.
April/West Ham will be key. 3 home games and 1 winnable away one plus Chelsea away who have lost a few times at the Bridge. Don't want to go into the last 2 games neeeding points! And we have to hope to get more than expected in the next 3-4 matches.
26 games in and we have won 5 total, drawn 9 and lost 12. Allright, Pearson is now in charge, some of the above we can't really fully count under him. However, we are seond last in the table now as it stands. But honestly, can we now win 5 from 12 games? That might be enough on 39 points. 4 wins and two draws might even be enough to get to 38 points total. Tall ask me thinks. Especially as how we have thrown away points against Spurs to some extent and then Villa, then Everton. That has really hurt us position and confidence wise. OK: Those five wins in red: Manchester United - we will never do the double over them. Liverpool - Move on next. Crystal Palace - The stuffing has already been knocked out of us with the last two games. Leicester City - next. Burnley FC - best chance of the previous games. Still, away is tough there. Southampton - maybe Chelsea - meh!! Norwich City - maybe Newcastle - maybe West Ham United - maybe Manchester City - give up. Arsenal - final nail. Ah sorry I could only find 4. It is sure going to be tight and even if we can miraculously find an upturn in form, we are still right in the mire at the moment. Such as shame there wasn't just a transfer window when we could have got a new amazingly half decent CB to save the day. We can only hope there are 3 ****ter teams than us and we stay up as other results have gone our way. Not much to ask considering the dross around us (including ourselves)
Yes, dependent on others’ results so much, too. For instance, Bournemouth’s recent wins against Villa and Brighton have hit us hard. I had them down as one of the “****ter teams” () and they’ve taken six points from those where we took one (forgetting the H or A - that matters less in a scrap like this).
UPDATED West Ham. Need 15pts from 12 games. With 4W and 3D Best chances of three points currently are: Home to Burnley Away to Norwich Home to Watford Home to Aston Villa Best chances of draws from remainder currently are: Home to Southampton Home to Wolves Away to Newcastle Contingency games (where they’ll have to pick up points in case they mess up any of the above): Away to Liverpool Away to Arsenal Away to Spurs Home to Chelsea Away to Man Utd
I’m wondering now if the 39 points total will be needed. These are tough schedules for all these teams. But, my God, are we ever looking at others’ results carefully now.
I’m not a betting chap, but the odds on relegation at the moment are: Norwich 1/10 Villa 1/1 Bournemouth 5/4 West Ham 26/19 Watford 15/8 Brighton 17/4 Palace 8/1
If we look at relative form of points per game: We may get a few more points than we fear......we must however win the games we are expecting to
UPDATED VILLA Now need 14 pts from 12 games. 4W & 2D, 3W & 5D, 2W & 8D... With 3W and 5D Best chances of three points currently are: Home to Crystal Palace Away to West Ham Away to Newcastle Best chances of draws from remainder currently are: Home to Man Utd Away to Southampton Home to Sheffield Utd Home to Wolves Away to Everton Contingency games (where they’ll have to pick up points in case they mess up any of the above): Away to Leicester Home to Chelsea Away to Liverpool Home to Arsenal With 4W and 2D Best chances of three points currently are: Home to Crystal Palace Away to West Ham Away to Newcastle Away to Southampton Best chances of draws from remainder currently are: Home to Sheffield Utd Home to Wolves Contingency games (where they’ll have to pick up points in case they mess up any of the above): Away to Everton Home to Man Utd Away to Leicester Home to Chelsea Away to Liverpool Home to Arsenal
Andy You are in danger of over analysing everything If Man City manage to scrape a win over West Ham then we have gained a point over our fellow relegation battlers We are all in the same boat with similar games to gain points from Our target is to earn as many points as we can from our remaining fixtures and hope it is more than our rivals Knowing Watford we will lose points from teams we should beat and gain points from teams we shouldn't Unless it comes to a point when we are four points adrift with one game to go, I believe, know we can do it
