The Racing Post gave Native River 165 for his run yesterday, so according to them he was in the range you mentioned. As ever though the runner up was rated 160, 11 lbs above his official mark and a personal best on RPRs. Will the official handicapper raise Secret Investor now? If he does life could be difficult for the horse.
I suppose those whose job it is to rate performances have to do so, but a race like yesterday's makes it pretty difficult IMHO. I think a couple of things need mentioning - firstly, they are horses, not machines. Secondly, I think yesterday was all about getting Native River cherry ripe for March and he'll probably improve a little for it. So I'd be happy to say Secret Investor (race fit and possibly still improving) had his Gold Cup yesterday and put up a career-best effort around the 155 mark. Native River giving him 3 pounds and winning just under 3 lengths could realistically have run to something like 161 or 162 but he was clearly far from all out. With the good prep he has had this time around I can see him running in the upper-160s in the Gold Cup and that ought to put him in the mix, especially if it comes up testing. He is no longer an attractive e/w bet though (the 25/1 from a few weeks ago now long gone). No idea what rating to give Might Bite though
The Official Handicapper dropped Might Bite 5 lbs to 158 after his run. The Racing Post had reported:- "Saturday's run behind his old rival Native River in the Denman Chase – a race that was not on his agenda until the initial entry suggested a weak field – showed the spark was still there" Indeed, so sparkling that it was finally obvious that the horse needed to go down the weights to give him a chance now. It was revealed by the trainer that Cross Country races may be the next port of call for Might Bite, another sign that his talent is largely gone and at 11YO unlikely to come back. Secret Investor was raised 4 lbs to 153 but that still leaves Native River beating moderate opposition. I would say he ran to about 160 and he will need a good bit better in the Gold Cup. It would be disappointing to see a horse win a Gold Cup with a sub 170 showing.
