It's back again tomorrow!! Who thought that this thread would be reaching 350 posts through this winter! I think we've had some really interesting chat on the thread and plenty of winners too. I am as most will be able to tell, quite a nerd and I keep a record of my betting through the year, and looking at it this morning its amazing to see the correlation between Southwell on the sand and positives on the account. This winter we've had a change in Southwell, firstly the floodlights have made the course more viable for the winter game, and they've had a good amount of fixtures in the twilight zone. As we've had more racing on the sand, we have seen more runners at the course and that has given some interesting lines on certain sires and also certain trainers who we need to follow in the future. Whilst I have some time, here are a few of those views - Kingman - 24 winners on the all weather as a sire, but a grand total of 0 from 14 runners at Southwell with only two placing. He clearly is a sire to take on at Southwell, and we've seen quite a few of his opening short in the market in maiden/novice heats and being well beaten. Richard Hughes - 11 wins from 47 at Southwell, a very interesting set of numbers, given its a much lower number of runners than he has at all other AW courses (bar Newcastle - bit far and all that). He has found a rich vein of winners for Southwell and is always interesting when his horses pop up to the Sunny Sand of Southwell. He is +23.73 to a pound level stakes at the course! Sea The Stars, Dubawi, XXXXX, Street Cry - Who on earth is the horse missing in this list of highest % scorers at Southwell? Well, a few hints - He has a runner tomorrow, he was trained in Lambourn, he stands in France, he is grey and is by another top grey Southwell Sire! James P Sullivan - Not because he won on my 18/1 shot yesterday... He has an extraordinary +£ 94.50 to one pound level stake record at Southwell. That is despite having a less that 10% win rate at the course. It shows two things, he gets big priced winners, and that horses he rides are often overlooked.
He is due to drop a couple so they are probably best not winning this. Very surprised you are not on Astrozone, I dont like the jolly and have it between Astrozone and Requiems Dream.
Firstly an apology on the prices, I took these this afternoon and as you will see the markets have changed dramatically. 1.55 Going Native (25/1 now 12/1) This horse was travelling so well on his penultimate start before fading down the straight, that race was over 1m6 and i've had it down for a return to this trip. His form looks particularly strong for this race and given his prominent racing style I think he will go well from the front and hopefully stay the mile and a half better than he has the extended trips recently. 3:05 Lightning Attack (33/1 now 8/1) This horse leaps off the page at me, being by the grey stallion that was mentioned in the first post of this thread today, Leathal Force. He is another stepping back down in trip, and he has plenty of back form to suggest that he can go close in a race of this nature. Its a first run on the surface for him, but he has a really positive sire and I thought he was very overpriced. I might also back something else in that race later, as it may be overpriced!
I think you're right to be pleased with the relative success of this thread, Nass, and unduly modest about your own role in it. I'm convinced that the Theatre of Dreams is the one track in the UK (with the possible exception of Brighton) where research and attention to detail can almost guarantee a working profit. To the extent that you've converted some doubters to that cause, I'd say that the thread has more than justified its existence. BTW, and out of curiosity, I googled up 'Nerd'. The expression 'social ineptitude' seems to crop up quite a lot. Just saying.
Having drunk Guiness with him at Cheltenham I can hereby testify that Nass does not suffer from social ineptitude. Unassuming would be more my description
it’s about time you put your hand in your pocket and purchased another pint! Are you coming over this year? rainer, I will take the unassuming from Oddy, I’m more of an unwilling participant in social events than inept. I just can’t be arsed with talking to people if I’m not interested in what they are likely to say.
This year not but am planning 2021 - I have my 25 years service which means I get an extra week holiday and an extra month’s pay - made for Cheltenham
