Love a 100/1 case I think Cornerstone Lad is still a fair each way poke at half that price. Technically, he's a grade 1 winner, and came out better at the weights than Pentland Hills on their last run (who is single figures).... I've placed loads of worse bets at shorter prices in my life
Wouldn't disagree at all if it's soft or worse. I've just had a look at your AP ledger. Man alive that takes some commitment. How do you keep up with them all. Are you an accountant? Good luck with them
Haha, with a big spreadsheet I don't like it when people say ante post punting is dead, I try to go out of my way to prove that's not the case.... Ante post certainly isn't for everyone, and I totally understand that. I personally get so much enjoyment and entertainment out of the journey all year around that it makes it worthwhile... but some people like Love Island, so not everybody is the same.
Just to add to your Elgin fancy too, he's only once had a run on Heavy ground, which was the Champion Hurdle. As a winner on the Flat on Good summer ground, you could be forgiven for assuming he'd be one of the horses who would benefit from any 'Good' in the going on Day One? It'd certainly be against some horses near the top of the market. Obviously no idea what the ground will be, but it's still a potential tick in his box, and you don't need many at 100/1
I know one thing Kev, we better not see some of those bets come in when we tee off in the Not606 v Fat Lads tipping comp... Obviously from a personal note I wish you well...
I personally am not a fan of ante post betting but have had the one ante post bet on bristol de Mai. I will add yours to the spreadsheet. Will be interesting to see how it goes all round for people. It's just a bit of fun.. My approach is if I can't guarantee my horse running and giving me a run for my hard earned and the buzz you get seeing it line up..then I don't take the punt with the one exception made this year. . Obviously ante post can't guarantee this...
Rayapour is not in the field of 10 possibles for the Spring Juvenile Hurdle this weekend. That leaves Aspire Tower about a stone clear of his field and at odds of 1/2 so there is little we are likely to learn. It would have been a huge ask to beat Aspire Tower on debut but it is a bit worrying to see Rayapour fail to keep his entry. Klassical Dream, Battleoverdoyen and Kemboy are all possible runners though and it could be a big weekend for my ante-post picks in terms of potential market moves for the Cheltenham Festival. Of course they could go either way depending on the performances. It's pretty much last chance saloon for Klassical Dream and it would have been hard to envisage him as a 4/1 shot for the Irish Champion Hurdle before his disappointing comeback run and then total no-show following a bad error next time. Sharjah is the highest rated of the 11 entries for Leopardstown on Saturday and his OR of 162 shows how poor this division currently is. Honeysuckle is the second coming in some people's eyes but she looks a bad favourite for Saturday based on wins over 2m 4f in testing conditions. Some will see Sharjah as the bet at 2/1 and it could be argued he is the fastest hurdler in the field. Battleoverdoyen could clash with Faugheen and if he does he will be meeting a chaser who is rated higher by The Racing Post but Faugheen is 12yo now beating Samcro is form that should carry a Government Wealth Warning. A win for Battleoverdoyen at this weekend's trip of 2m 5f should surely see him as clear second Fav for the RSA where Champ is something of a Banker for a few people. Kemboy is set for a rematch with Delta Work and he needs to improve from their last meeting. It's been well documented that the stable were quiet earlier in the season and it seems certain Mullins will be aiming to peak for the Cheltenham festival. A win from Kemboy would surely see him go favourite for the Gold Cup. Hopefully some of them run and even more importantly they run well. All three probably need to win in order to solidify their chances. Like Meatloaf, Two out of Three won't be bad for me.
I’m not one to diss jockeys as a rule but I would try a different jockey on Klassical Dream. His runs this season have been very disappointing and I just wonder whether he might go better for a different chap in the plate!
There was talk of fitting Klassical Dream with a hood but this seems to have changed to an opinion that the horse is just a bit quirky in the head and a hood would not help. There was also a mention that they hoped the horse would mature and leave his quirks behind. Sort of running out of time to mature for Cheltenham and a hood might have been a better option than just hoping that the horse gets his **** together mentally.
I see it is being reported that Lisp, who seemingly can run in practically almost every race at the Festival, bar the heat that those Cock-en-nee types are now calling ‘The Tony Blair’s’, is most likely to run in the ‘Grand Annual’. Makes sense (although I would have been half tempted to chuck him back over hurdles for the ‘County’) as off 144 he looks more than fairly well treated over the big ‘uns. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again 13 March could prove one ‘eck of a day for the owners. What with Santini in the CGC, Lisp in the ‘Grand Annual’ and additionally the £60,000 Plumpton bonus payable if the latter wins. Currently you can get 156.5/1 about this treble (2 bets only) being landed. Although CGC this year is Friday the 13th so who know what will happen or even 'be occuring'!
If Elgin returns at the same level, or close to it, as his 2018 performances I would imagine that the ‘Devizes crew’ would be ultra keen this summer to get him back on the level. Especially as his handler these days seems to be turning into a Flat trainer more and more with each passing day. I would imagine all the major 12-14 furlong handicaps would be on the agenda after the 2019/20 NH term. Maybe something like the race named after King Philip at Royal Ascot would be perfect.
Does that mean he's going Champion Hurdle? (Said with not a trace of irony). Sizing John out for the season.
Andy Dufresne was probably not quick enough for the Supreme and would have had to face Envoi Allen in the Ballymore. To be honest he didn't really set the heather alight with his performances thus far and it is probably sensible to feel their way with him. All too often horses get hyped to the point where trainers get caught up in the excitement and aim too high too early. I remember Beltor, who was trained by Robert Stephens, starting off promisingly as a juvenile hurdler but the trainer stated he would NOT run at Cheltenham because they wanted to take their time with him and wait for Aintree. After winning next time the Channel 4 team, in particular Mick Fitzgerald, were all over the idea of the horse for the Triumph Hurdle, with the ex Jockey leaving the studio to back Beltor for that race. The trainer got caught up in the hype and changed his plans by running at the Festival. In the race won narrowly by Peace And Co from Top Notch, Beltor was well beaten and involved in quite a rough race where he was struck into. Beltor was never the same again, declining from 145 on official ratings to just 124. Seemed a waste of a promising sort for a yard that doesn't get many decent ones. Oh well, one ante-post bet bites the dust but it is always a huge ask for a horse at 25/1 to deliver the win. He'll probably win at Punchestown just to rub it in now.
Narrowing them down to actual selections is quite difficult in terms of that competition. Being so acutely aware of what prices pretty much every horse has been clouds the judgement on the day of race type markets sometimes! I wish you luck too of course (hopefully you are on some that I'm on)
Will be interesting to see how mine match up against others when all the dust has settled then. It is all about the journey for me, lost "7 points" today via Andy Dufrense and Figaroc being unlikely runners. A significant amount of money to lose in isolation, but it isn't in the grand scheme of my ante post book... Do you crank it up when NRNB concessions come into play, or do you just like to solve the puzzles on the 'day of race' type markets?
Just on the day for me or night before....I think there is some value to be had but more importantly I like to work out the puzzle on the day knowing ground and opposition..
