Exit poll sounds good, I hope it's true but I'm not going to shout until I actually see a win, I also think whether you like or hate him you have got to admit John McDonnell manned up early and fair play to him he has got courage and stands by his convictions, I respect that but I have always hoped for a leave majority and eventually we, the majority will get our rights, I still wait in hope. NOT LONG.
A little prediction game here... We know the exit poll suggests a Tory majority is 86. But what do you think the actual number will be in the end? I reckon it will be in the 60's. I will say 63.
I trust the exit poll. I trust the stats. I'm staying with 80's. 63 majority isn't possible, it has to be an even number . I must admit I was confused by this earlier myself as well.
Blyth Valley who is usually the first result is doing a bundle recount. Traditionally a labour seat but this seems very very very close for this recount!
So it requires 326 seats for a majority. 333 seats (for example), despite being 7 over, is a 14 seat majority. Because the parties can only get within 14 seats of the total. So when the BBC are saying an 80 seat Tory majority or whatever the total is, they actually only mean 40 over the threshold (around 366). For that reason an uneven majority is impossible
The Tory win in Blyth was by just over 700 votes. Brexit party had over 3k votes. They took some of Labours votes. So Farage has helped Tories take a Labour seat!
