Triple G1 winner Supasundae, who beat Faugheen and Jezki in an Irish Champion Hurdle, left standing by Buveur Dair and running on when it was all over. You still have time to realise youve made a **** of it and get on Buveur Dair, 5/1 is still a very fair price as he will be about 9/4 after Newcastle id imagine. Not many 9yo double champions run in the race and the further we go, the more apparent its becoming that last seasons novices and juveniles were not top class.
I had to have the 6s yesterday for £20 for BVD, that price will not get bigger between now and the off imo.
I wasn't at Punchestown but I wouldn't doubt Willie Mullins if he thinks the horse will improve. No doubt some of the ones who thought Klassical Dream was as fit as a flea were also the same arseholes who pissed away money on him at 2/5 thinking they were buying cash and now want to down the horse instead of admitting that they have no concept of value. Supasundae has won some big races but Triple Grade 1 means absolutely zero without context. Poor G1 races are won pretty regularly and it depends on circumstances being taken into account. Supasundae beat a Faugheen who had been pulled up on his previous start. The former champ was getting vulnerable as his defeat behind Nichols Canyon had suggested. Jezki was 10YO and declined right down to a 153 rated no-hoper at 25/1 in the Irish Champion Supasundae won. It was an awful race inflated in significance by having former good horses on the way down. I see Supasundae as a horse who was probably low 160's at best. He was regularly destroyed by Apples Jade and it can't have been a good sign that they felt the need to go to the World Hurdle with him. It was a huge concern for me that he turned Buveur D'air over and I just can't rate Supasundae very highly at all. He beat Buveur D'air with a performance rated 159 and was beaten next time with the same rating. For all of Buveur D'air's supposed brilliance, if you take out the beating of Samcro that looks all wrong in terms of rating and consider that his other two 170 figures came from beating a 10YO My Tent Or Yours, then the rest of his form is at a lesser level. I was with Buveur last season but I don't back horses once they seem past their best and I felt I got away with it a bit when Melon gave a bit of a fright to the then reigning champion. I don't rate Melon, the balance of his form is pretty disappointing for me and his runner up to Buveur D'air in the Champion Hurdle looks an anomaly to me. Quite how the Racing Post managed to rate Melon 153 for being beaten 22 lengths behind Apples Jade in the Irish Champion Hurdle is a mystery to me. Horses get overrated all the time and Sharjah is a prime example. He was raised for beating a long past his best Faugheen and Supasundae to a peak of 165 but he was dropped 2 lbs and the another 1lb for his latest run. That is quite a swift walkback by the Handicapper, who is normally quick to raise them and slow to drop them. Talking of overrated horses and potentially overrated horses, it was a bit surprising to see Midnight Run get the figure he did from the Racing Post for winning a Maiden hurdle. Promising win though it was, it was virtually a match race with the Mullins mare who looked a suicide job at her odds of 8/13 Fav. It seemed early days to be giving the winner of a Maiden Hurdle a mark of 148 and if that figure is correct Midnight Run would be a shoo-in for the Albert Bartlett if staying the trip. In comparison warm Supreme Novices favourite Envoi Allen is only rated 141 by the Racing Post. If Midnight Run is 7 lbs better than him, then 20/1 for the Albert Bartlett should be worth taking. The thing I would worry about is whether they might go Ballymore instead? If a horse can run to 148 over 2 miles I would not see the need to take him right up in trip. The concern then would be getting outstayed by plodders. I would go Ballymore if he were my horse but we will see where they go with him and whether the Racing Post rating for his recent win stacks up. These ante-post bets could look good (or ****ty) come the start of the Festival. It's a fun angle for me and anyone else trying to bet seriously this far away from races is on a sure loser. I once backed a Barry Hills filly for the Oaks at 33/1 and it died on the gallops the following morning. My sympathetic bookie refunded my bet but it shows how fickle the medium can be.
A good 3 miler should be winning 2 mile novice hurdles at Cork easily, and given there looks to be a few top class novice prospects in Ireland, Midnight Run might not be good enough to win the races that would entitle him to go for the Ballymore. He is a full brother to Carefully Selected who was 3rd in the 3m G1 novice hurdle at Punchestown and given how easily he was beaten by Envoi Allen, I thought they would avoid him and go for the 3 miler, but it might come down to the owners. If JP has Andy Dufresne for the Ballymore, Joseph Obriens Dlauro will probably run in the 3 miler and then Joseph might want to split his two, maybe Gigginstown dont have anything better for the Ballymore. Its a complete guessing game when it comes to Cheltenham novice races, especially when they are dominated by a handful of stables and owners with multiple contenders. Think I might have to back him for the Ballymore as well given the owner set up, although its harder to make a case for him being good enough to win that race, hed have to show up well in the G1s at Christmas against the bigger names.
Pointless arguing with you about form and ratings, you just move goalposts constantly, quote one type of rating then another to suit your position. Jump racing will be a dream for you as you will always be able to find what you are looking for given the irrelevant and erratic nature of Jump form. Supasundae isnt a world beater, but hes no mug on his best runs and only a good horse can win the 3 major open G1s he has, beating multiple Champion Hurdle winners. Taking early season jump form literally is dangerous and quite frankly stupid, you regularly see turn arounds of 20-60L in this game even at the highest level, its only really the festival form that is solid when everyone is fit and they go a strong gallop from the start. The mugs found that out last season when they believed Apples Jades 4f sprint wins against Supasundae was legit form, low and behold she was beaten half the track in a Championship gallop. Getting outstayed at 2m4 in testing ground against Supasundae is no disgrace, getting beat by him 2 miles at Cheltenham on good ground might have been more worrying when considering his Champion Hurdle prospects, I dont really see the Aintree run in any way relevant to Buveur Dairs Champion Hurdle claims, completely different test. In any case, a low 160s horse is better than any of Buveur Dairs new contenders, they all have to show something they have not shown before to make a credible case to beat Buveur Dair, thats the simple facts. Good luck with your concerns about the Champs 2m4 form at Aintree.
Came for an early spy on this years competition ... hope you're all well! Nice early debate on the Champion Hurdle... I'd weigh in and agree that Buveur D'air does set the standard. I think Fusil Raffles was a contender for the worst priced ante post horse for the festival because he was priced as if he'd already made the step up into open company. No need to after time my own bets on here as they're posted elsewhere .... so moving on, there is no chance they'd go Novice Chasing with Klassical Dream after his run in the Morgiana. His run wasn't that bad.... (his price before hand was, and it's not attractive now) but he's not changing discipline this season! At some bigger prices, Honeysuckle at 50s although unlikely to run at this stage wouldn't be the most ridiculous punt. Labaik at 50s and Eldorado Allen at 66s are interesting perhaps?
I have a small bet Eldorado Allen 66/1 but I find it so stupid that I haven't even dared to put it here. It seems that in the next few weeks he will run to prove himself.
Malone Road out of the season. https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...r-malone-road-sidelined-for-the-season/409812
I think the Champion Hurdle market usually offers little perspective for an ante post punt and this season is no exception. To be honest I think waiting until the day of the race is the best option but over the coming weeks I see the following: 1. Buveur D'Air wins the Fighting Fifth despite clouting one, by about 2 lengths, from a rival rated at least 2 stone inferior. Henderson calls him "a bull of a horse who is difficult to get fit". Be interesting if Mullins sent Klassical Dream over though 2. Christmas comes along, something (probably Saldier) wins impressively at Leopardstown, Buveur D'Air doesn't impress at Kempton (maybe even getting beat in the process) 3. Whatever won at Leopardstown over Christmas wins the Irish Champion Hurdle; Buveur D'Air ploughs through the mud at Sandown to win the egg and spoon race. 4. Cheltenham, March. We are all none the wiser as they go to post. Buveur D'Air an uneasy favourite as they go to post, the Irish money has been pouring on Saldier all morning..................... the tapes go up and 4 minutes later we all think "****, where did that come from?"
He'd need to be winning a good handicap first from his mark... the Greatwood was my original thought for him but not really looked in to it yet.
Hi Kev. How are you keeping? Must pop over when I get some time to see what's happening with your lot
One More: Foxhunters Chase Caryto Des Brosses Very good jumper, he is only seven years old (eight next year) and I think he can still improve, multiple PTP winner (6 wins), he has only run three times under rules, with one win and two second places. He won at Straford in June 2018 by 6 lengths, in May this year he was second by a neck at Cheltenham behind Haxel Hill that had won the Foxhunters Chase Festival. He closed the season at Aintree with another second place behind Wonderful Charm also by a neck. If he runs in March, I don't see him outside the top three. Caryto Des Brosses 16/1 e/w
Gypsy Island out of the season. https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...e-gypsy-island-is-ruled-out-for-season/410151
Ah bugger, I know connections were really looking forward to him this season.But hey thats the game and at least its not a critical injury.
Why would you expect that? Irving won the previous years Fighting Fifth, beating Apples Jade, and was rated 154, BVD never came off the bridle going 8 clear and eased down, then a year later he beats 160 rated Samcro by 8L. So why would you expect him to win by 2L from a 135 horse? Just a nonsense post, its quite rare that something wins the Champion Hurdle from left field. tbh, im glad you dont like him, id be worried if you did.
Not Cheltenham but couple of thoughts for this weekend and the King George. I think Altior is a terrible favourite for the King George, im very doubtful about his stamina for 3 miles and his violent left drifting into fences would be a massive concern at Kempton. I have to take him on at Ascot this weekend on the same grounds, Cyrname is capable of running well at the track and Altior wouldnt want to be repeating his previous antics as it will likely cost him any chance against this horse. A horse I do think is interesting for Kempton is Lostintranslation, although at 7/1 he is priced up on hype as that was a poor race he won at Aintree and its a big step up in open company, his form at shorter distances with Defi Du Sueil is not relevant. Im not convinced about his stamina for the Gold Cup or Haydock this weekend, but 3 miles at Kempton could suit him well and I think its his best chance of winning a big race this season. Clan Des Obeaux is solid and should be favourite just now, but hes no superstar and I think Lostintraslation is potentially a bit classier if he stays at the top level. I have to be with Bristol De Mai in the Betfair, his record at the course is bombproof and this is usually the only race he wins every year, still only 8yo and I think he will grind it out too strongly for Lostintranslation. Im doing a double Bristol De Mai 6/5 and Cyrname 11/8, a case of horses for courses as I think the other two are better horses. Ideally Lostintranslation will be beaten far enough to push his price out a few points, but if Altior bombs and he runs a promising race then he might well end up shorter than 7s, still I cant justify taking that price, id be wanting at least 10s just now.
