Think so. Theres a semi final and final to win to get through. Chances very very slim. Pity as wed have had two games in Dublin. I know a lad who's bought four tickets to cover the two games. Cost him 2k
There's one finals place for each of the leagues in that European Nations League thing. It's designed to have one nation from each tier, so in effect each group of four nations grouped together will be of a similar standard. Can't remember what league ROI were in but they won't be playing any of Georgia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus for example because they were in the bottom 'League'. One of those four will be in the finals. I think I've got that right but it's unnecessarily complicated.
I know we've a fair chance of drawing Wales as they must be in same group. Wouldn't be a whole lot between those two