The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

Nottinghamshire even

 

Ah, sorry about the geography, but anything north of Newport Pagnell is one amorphous badlands as far as I'm concerned.

Anyway, duly lunched and rested, I've decided that MININGGOLD is the likeliest winner of the 5.10. No need to tell you of the trainer's gift with sprinters (at all levels), and it's interesting that the mare is ridden again by Andrew Mullen after a long period when Paula Muir seemed to be the automatic choice. She's up a couple of pounds for not winning here last time, again under Mullen, but she looked bright and well that day, and a small hike doesn't seem unreasonable. I expect the race to develop down the stands side, so I've discounted anything drawn 1-4 (sorry, Nass). If you're in a position to monitor the exchange market in the five minutes before the off, it would be wise to do so, but there don't seem to be any early signs of serious gambles beyond a bit of money for Tan. They're about 11-2 the field as I post, which seems OK.

Difficult card, on the whole, and my only other possible bet would be Bold Show in the 6.15. Fahey's booking of Megan looks like a declaration of intent.

 

Funnily when I looked at the race yesterday evening, the horse whose name was noted at the top of the list was Mininggold, however I am most intrigued by you going against the low stalls, as I don't think we can do that tonight. If you look at the draw stats for course and distance with fields 11 to 13 in size you get (most recent first)

10
9
8
2
7
1
2
1
6
4
2

Which to me suggests that it perhaps isn't draw that impacts on the races at this trip. Therefore when I look at the pace forecast, with First Excel drawn low, you should get plenty of pace from stalls 2,5,7,8 and 11 I think we should get a fair result despite draw.

It isn't a race that interests me as a betting heat currently, but if we see the market move in the time before the race then I might be swayed.

The key bits for me on the card is Daily Times is odds on but do we know if Gleneagles horses go on the surface? We might find out today, but at odds on I think he should be taken on.

Quaint at 8/1 looks more interesting for me, but drawn on the wing and taking on the colts is going to be difficult.

In the other maiden Bill The Butcher is a real positive on sire wins, and has the form in the book. I am a bit surprised that he is 15/8.

 

Yes, I may have confused pace-probability with draw-bias, and my ideas (read prejudices) on how the race will develop could be completely wrong. And I agree that backing Daily Times at odds-on would be pretty much a blind act of faith in the trainer. Wouldn't talk anyone out of Bill the Butcher, either.

Do you believe Coleen,or Rebekah ? Give reasons for your answer, and show your working.

 

Looking at their actions I’d guess Coleen would go on the surface. Not sure about the other mare.

 

Bill The Butcher won at 11/4
Quaint placed at 11/2
Mininggold very unfortunate in the first which was won by Samovar

not a bad night

 

I assume she doesn't like it soft

 

Old boy, views on this evenings racing?

 

I like a couple in the 7 30 ; Port soif is on a handy Mark and molten lava ,also nice in at the weights , James given drops one into 5f sprint in the last ......

 

those two are interesting and overpriced too, Global Exceed has been strong in the market for that race, but doesn’t have the surface form I’d want to see for a shortish price.

 

Right very quickly

5:30 - Arzaak/ Bluella - Both got the course form and drawn medium to high.
6:00 - Purple Sandpiper/Titanium Grey - place bets as both have positive sire statistics and some of the more fancied horses don't
6:30 - Angel Palanas - been running better than form suggests. A little worried by the wide draw but this race doesn't look too hot. EW price
7:00 - BTS/Bee/Fly - Forecasts - hoping Fly beats one of the other two
7:30 Atalanta Queen - Best Bet of the day. Good course form and drawn well to get prominent.
8:00 - Going Native EW - Poor race and this one looks very overpriced. Rhona could have a cracking night!!

 

it was 7f Royal Sands did it easily , backed from 25/1 into 9/1

 

Anything catch the eye in this evening card ,Dalglish has Gina d cleaner dropping back in trip ,drawn to attack !

 

Cold Harbour looks an EW bet to nothing

 

I see Gina been backed into 3s !!! They must be confident, trainer has good record at southwell , callum the job jockey as well.

 

For a two-bob mid-November novice stakes, the 5.40 race is actually quite interesting. I don't usually bother putting up shorties here, on the grounds that anyone who reads this thread regularly doesn't need self-evident sermons about the likeliest winner of a non-handicap. But the case for THE BELL CONDUCTOR is so persuasive that I'm having the biggest bet of the year to date, so I'll share it.

Everything about this looks right. The latest Catterick form is OK in itself, but the run before that when favourite for a York Class 3 in October is way ahead of anything here (the useful Easterby winner was due to run in a listed race at York which got abandoned later in the month, and would probably have gone off favourite). You take his ability to perform on fibresand on trust , of course - the sire Dandyman has only average fibresand stats, although (useless fact alert) colts with Dubawi blood on the dam's side do pretty well here; but jockey-in form Ben Curtis is up, and I don't see anything very terrifying in the opposition.

Auchterarder was overnight paper favourite, but mostly on the strength of Johnston's remarkable season. Anything Michael Dods sends here need to be looked at twice, of course, but I really can't see Royal Context giving TBC 7 lb, and this looks like a full bank job. Currently about 5/4 (17.00 GMT), and it could drift a bit, but I'd settle for any odds against. If this gets beat, you won't be hearing from me for a while.

 

I couldn’t back him at the price because of the Johnston horse who ticks loads of boxes and could be a cut above. The weakness for that one makes it a no bet race.

I like old boy Alpha later and also Meshardal

 

went off odds on, won well enough too. Well done!

 

This thread needs more Rainer and less Board

 

As Sheldon Cooper so often says, Stick, these are the things we think and don't say out loud. And the fact is that, without Nass, this thread wouldn't exist at all. I'm sure he'll find something he's good at eventually.