Kinross entered in the rearranged in the Futurity at Newcastle (along with several other non-AOB trained runners)
Goodness, Armory got the mother of all tankings in the match race for the Group 1 Criterium. 20 lengths is some distance to be beaten over 7F. Aidan O'Brien said coming into the race that he felt Armory had improved since his previous race but he looked like a horse that had come to the well once too often. I thought Armory looked potentially top class in winning his maiden but to my eye he was no more than workmanlike when landing the Futurity and the Racing Post Ratings I questioned at the time look like a hill of rubbish now when looking at the subsequent form. For example, 3rd home Geometrical was rated 105 for his Futurity run, having recorded 93 on his previous start, but then ran to 92 and 77 subsequently. The Futurity rating stands out like a huge overrating based on the fact that it was a Group 2 contest. With Armory running so poorly behind Alson it is hard to evaluate the form. The Racing Post went with 63 for Armory and 113 for Alson on the day but with only 2 runners and such a huge gap between them you could easily argue that it would be tricky to get within a stone of what they actually ran to. Alson was runner up to Victor Ludorum in the Lagardere, when Armory got much closer to him. The safest thing to say is that the Fabre colt Victor Ludorum, who won with something in hand in the Group 1 Lagardere, is probably a top class prospect. Victor Ludorum is yet another Shamardal colt to shine this season and you could make a case that he, Pinatubo and Earthlight are the three best 2YO colts this season. All by Shamardal and all unbeaten they have won 14 races between them and are all Group 1 winners. Godolphin own all three and this must be their strongest hand for a long time. Regarding Kinross, as Odd Dog says, he is entered in the re-arranged Futurity but is also entered in the re-arranged Horris Hill, due to be run a day later at Newmarket. Ralph Beckett says that the going and strength of opposition will determine which contest they choose for Kinross but it seems sensible to me to go to Newmarket and get some experience of the course if they are looking to win a Guineas with the colt. I am not sure he has much to worry about from the O'Brien stable anyway. Mogul looks more of a horse for next year at 10F to 12F and if Kinross can't do him for toe then I doubt he is Guineas quality anyway. Kinross is 6/1 for the re-arranged Futurity, which would indicate to me that bookies feel he will head to Newmarket for the Horris Hill. The ground at Newmarket is currently soft.
Something was obviously amiss with Armory, stopped to a walk in the straight, he had previously finished a neck behind Alson in the Lagadere where Armory presumably ran close to his usual 110 rating. Seems strange to increase Alsons rating considering Armory was a complete throwout and the time was only .2 faster than the preceding claimer over course and distance, very strange in fact. Suspect Victor Lodorum will have to improve a fair amount next season to be winning classics as the 113 he has achieved so far wouldnt be good enough.
It's very early days for Victor Ludorum. With only three runs under his belt he hasn't had the same chance to show his full potential yet. As it stands they are ALL chasing Pinatubo, who is 15 lbs clear on Timeform Ratings. Earthlight is 17 lbs behind Pinatubo on Timeform figures and he also has to prove that he stays a mile. Victor Ludorum is only 2 lbs behind Earthlight with Timeform and he has raced less to this point and his stamina is not an issue. Arizona is second on Timeform's 2YO colts chart on 119 but I think he is exposed and I see him as a vulnerable favourite on firm ground in the Breeders Cup this weekend. I would be heavily against Albigna this weekend as well. Jessica Harrington's filly looked short of toe in the Moyglare before relishing the mud in the Prix Marcel Boussac. The concrete surface is unlikely to see her in the best light this weekend and the message seemed to be that the owner was keen on the idea of the Breeder's Cup race, rather than the trainer. I feel it could be detrimental to Albigna's 3YO career if she runs on the runway at Santa Anita.
Unusual for a European G1 winner to go over for the Juvenile, Arizona fits the usual profile as not being able to win a European G1 and a last throw at the dice to make him a 2yo G1 winner. Given you think Albigna looks slow, you wont be expecting much from her next season whether she runs here or not? There is simply no evidence to back up this claim you refuse to drop, the evidence is all to the contrary that running in this race has no special bearing on what a horse does at 3, multiple classic winners in both continents in the last few years proves this.
It doenst look a strong renewal of the colts race, the US form is all much of a muchness and Acomb also ran Vitalogy gives you an idea of the general level, he has been quite unlucky in his 2 runs over there in prominent trials, he certainly should have won last time and I suspect he will have plenty of backers on Friday but how many times is a horse unlucky before you have to say it doesnt have the speed to get out of trouble? Arizona should be fine on the ground and if he runs to his Dewhurst level he wins but hes had a hard enough campaign already and will do well to get a nice trip from stall 12, hes no value at 9/4 fav but I certainly wouldnt rule him out against this lot. Structor is unbeaten in 2 but he had a perfect trip last time and I dont think the race was as strong as some of the other trials, given hes trained by Chad Brown and unbeaten I expect him to be popular but I dont think hes good enough to win this. Decorated Invader beat Vitalogy at Woodbine and he looks the best prospect in the race to me, he was an eye-catching 2nd first time out in a hot maiden at Saratoga before winning easily at the same venue on his second start. He stepped up to win the G1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine on his 3rd start and won it in quite commanding fashion, arguably Vitalogy should have finished closer but both horses had a similar trip and Vitalogy just wasnt quick enough to go with him. If there is a standout in this race its Decorated Invader and he looks a very fair price at 6/1, hes the one im with and Vitalogy could chase him home.
If you would stop and take in what I am actually saying regarding the Breeders Cup juvenile and frame the subsequent form using my precise criteria it would help you to realise that my system has not failed me thus far. Here are the parameters for the hard of Listening:- 1. I am talking solely about the winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile race. 2. The winner HAS to be trained in the UK or Ireland. 3. Performance is based on what the winner achieved as a 3YO The roll of honour based on my criteria is as follows:- Donatavium Pounced Wrote George Vancouver Outstrip Hit It A Bomb Mendelssohn Line Of Duty Other than a false dawn of romping home on the unreliable Meydan track from Mendelssohn, the winners all disappointed in general. Several were tipped as Guineas or Derby winners in waiting but they were nowhere near it. The ill fated Line Of Duty was the latest winner of the race and although he ran a couple of places in weak looking group races his final race was an odds-on defeat at the Arc meeting. He didn't win a race this year and he was never involved in the Derby. Space Blues was an early interest in the Derby for me, based on the fact that he had won over a mile at 2YO and the fact that Charlie Appleby had entered him in the Derby at a supplementary stage, indicating that they thought he might stay. It didn't happen but I lost pennies at a huge price and got it back with more when backing the horse later. He had a more profitable season than Line Of Duty, end of. Arizona may win the Breeders Cup race but my abiding memory is of him looking outpaced at one stage in the Coventry before finishing strongly to pip Threat. He has a class advantage but we have seen the US tracks and going negate that in the past. If he does win it, I will be against Arizona next year based on my thinking about the Breeders Cup race. I doubt that his run behind Pinatubo on soft in the Dewhurst can be taken seriously. Both the Irish Handicapper and The Racing Post rated that run 9 lbs higher on 117 than his previous best of 108. I may be wrong but I am calling that figure Bullshit with it being at the *** end of the season on gutters. Time and time again we see these soft ground runs late in the season proving to be totally unreliable. Arizona has won on fast ground but it was a maiden against vastly inferior opponents. On good ground he was more than nine lengths adrift of Pinatubo and that seems the far more reliable line of form. Regarding Albigna, I don't think the ground will suit her at all but that does not mean she might not run well in a 1000 Guineas with some cut in the ground. If it rides fast at Newmarket in the Spring I would be against her chances and if running on concrete ground in the States I believe there is a chance it could physically affect her with a detriment to her 3YO career. I think my comments make logical sense and cannot understand why you think Albigna has no chance in the Guineas if she isn't fast enough at a greyhound track on ground normally suited to a Boeing 747 take-off strip. No doubt the UK and Irish runners will be hyped up and backed on the strength of having higher ratings but they are not for me at the odds, in the circumstances. If picking winners was as easy as just backing the highest rated runners we would all be rich. My main bet is Kimari at 11/2 and if she breaks well she should be hard to beat. Not sure if I will bet anything else at the meeting.
So why didnt you caveat your Albigna comments with "if she wins"? And what if she gets beat a short head? "I feel it could be detrimental to Albigna's 3YO career if she runs on the runway at Santa Anita." This statement is utter nonsense with nothing whatsoever to back it up. A list of horses who were not good enough to win European G1 2yos, remaining not good enough at 3 means nothing. Some of those races where run on soft ground as well and you claim the sharp nature of the track somehow stopped these horses from becoming G1 superstars at 3. Many of them maintained their level of form at 3, many were G1 placed as they were at 2yo, ie they maintained their form. Like hundreds of 2yos who dont run in the BC Juvenile Turf, some did not train on, its a normal occurrence, nothing to suggest that this specific race increases the chances of this happening. Line of Duty was officially rated 114 after winning the race as a 2yo, hes now rated 115 after placing in 2 major European G1s., thats his level, he fulfilled his potential, thats as good as he is, winning in America didnt stop him improving 5 or 10 pounds. MULTIPLE 3YO CLASSIC WINNERS HAVE RUN IN THE RACE!!!! Our horses used to run on Hard going here before the ridiculous watering took over, they are flat horses after all, and I find it very strange that you have such an apparent contempt for firm ground given you are a flat man. Santa Anita have been under severe pressure to provide a safe racing surface on dirt and turf this season, the dirt track is much slower and more testing now and the ground will be perfectly safe, world class trainers wouldnt be running their horses if it wasnt. Tweak your theory criteria as much as you like, with every tweak it becomes more meaningless, youre simply digging a bigger and bigger hole, just accept that its nonsense and move on.
Line of Duty ran in the Derby, Space Blues was a 7f horse, in a Derby discussion, I think its safe to say what was the better choice of Godolphin Derby horse.
Donativum Euro RPR Pre-BC: 105 Euro RPR Post-BC: 113 3yo Season Listed winner, G2 Placed Best RPR: 114 Final OR: 112 ABILITY: MAINTAINED Pounced Euro RPR Pre-BC: 115 Euro RPR Post-BC: 117 3yo Season Unraced ABILITY: UNKNOWN Wrote Euro RPR Pre-BC: 105 Euro RPR Post-BC: 115 3yo Season G2 Placed Best RPR: 111 Final OR: 108 ABILITY: Debatable, clearly overrated for BC win, Euro RPRs of 104 and 106 when beaten 4L in Irish Guineas in keeping with his pre BC 2yo ratings, last UK run used as pacemaker in G1. Arguably maintained based on ratings. George Vancouver Euro RPR Pre-BC: 114 Euro RPR Post-BC: 117 3yo Season Tailed off 3 runs in G1s Best RPR: 104 Final OR: 103 ABILITY: DIDNT TRAIN ON Outstrip Euro RPR Pre-BC: 117 Euro RPR Post-BC: 116 3yo Season G1 3rd St James Palace Best RPR: 119 Final OR: 118 ABILITY: MAINTAINED (Twice btn 3L by superstar Kingman) Hit It A Bomb Euro RPR Pre-BC: 110 Euro RPR Post-BC: 114 3yo Season G3 Placed Best RPR: 114 Final OR: 111 ABILITY: MAINTAINED Mendellsohn Euro RPR Pre-BC: 115 Euro RPR Post-BC: 115 3yo Season G2 Winner, twice G1 placed Best RPR: 122 Final OR: 120 ABILITY: IMPROVED Line Of Duty Euro RPR Pre-BC: 105 Euro RPR Post-BC: 114 3yo Season twice G1 placed Best RPR: 117 Final OR: 115 ABILITY: MAINTAINED Worth noting that when this list began, the race was a conditions race and then a G2 before it earned G1 status, the quality has certainly improved in recent years but it remains generally a race for horses who were not good enough to win G1s in Europe, Albigna looks like being the exception to the rule this year. The recent improvement in quality with the likes of Masar and Mendellsohn gave me some hope that Line Of Duty would be a player if he was a 12f horse like Masar but turns out he wasnt and he only ran to the same level as a 3yo. From the list of 8 horses, 6 maintained or improved their form, 1 didnt run and 1 didnt train on. This list doesnt take into account the multiple G1 and classic winners who have run in the race, it only serves to disprove the theory that winning the race is detrimental to a horses future prospects. I suspect if you pick any end of season 2yo race on the calendar you will get similar results for their winners, its utterly dependant on the horse, its ability and potential, and not the race. The facts show that this race does not stop horses from fulfilling their potential, the fact that 2nd string horses are given a chance to become G1 winners in a lesser race may cloud the perception of their future performance level when running in European classics the following season.
You can kid yourself with ratings but it misleading. The fact is that horses get rated upwards in a heartbeat and then take forever to drop down the ratings when it is perfectly clear that they have failed to perform to the same level again. Air Force Blue was rated 124 going into the 2000 Guineas and he ran to 86 in that race. He came out of that race rated 123. He then ran to 78, 99 and 56 but was rated 118 going into his final career start. His official rating indicated only minor degradation but the truth was that the horse was useless as a 3YO. I look for horses to avoid as 3YO's and the Breeders Cup has never let me down. I said at the start of the year that Line Of Duty was to be avoided in the Derby and he should never have run in the race. His best two runs of the season came at a mile and they foolishly chose to run him at 10F on very soft ground on what turned out to be his final start. The horse was badly placed several times and Charlie Appleby's assertion that he was an ideal type for the Epsom Derby was light years away from the facts. You can't just look at ratings and take them on trust. To find the whole truth you need to look at how the ratings for a race panned out in the future. I cannot be bothered running through all the figures in what is largely a pointless difference of opinion but I picked Donativum at random as a horse deemed to have maintained his ability. He won one race from seven attempts at 3YO and that was a narrow win in a French Listed contest where he gained a rating of 103 from the Racing Post. That was 10 lbs lower than his Breeders Cup rating. His two best runs came in the Joel Stakes and the Victor Chandler but only one horse ever won again from that Joel Stakes in 35 subsequent runs and only two horses won from the Victor Chandler in 37 subsequent runs. Both races pretty much stank the place out and if you were going by the ratings from those two races you would have lost a fortune, as nearly all of them resulted in unplaced efforts. For me, it is laughable to suggest that Donativum maintained his ability but hey-ho believe what you will. The biggest flaw in rating horses is the urge to rate them higher, rather than admit that some Group races are just piss poor renewals.
Donativum ran to 113 in the BC and 113 & 114 on his final 2 starts as a 3yo, how can you possibly dispute that he didnt maintain his ability? He was nothing special, the race he won in America was not even a graded stakes at the time, the runner up of Aiden Obriens went on to run 3L 3rd in the French Guineas and Derby, yet more evidence that the theory is nonsense, and at the same time showing that the form was a notch below European winning G1 standard. Donativum running close to the likes of Confront, Rio De La Plata, Ouqba and Main Aim puts him bang in that low 110 range, I remember those horses very well as I was just getting into racing at the time, they were solid G2 horses. The types of horses who would be running well in good races, not necessarily winning them but not beaten far, so the fact that there was few winners doesnt tell the full story does it? It doesnt mean the races were garbage, they were solid G2 level, which is all Donativum was, he was never good enough to win a European G1. He was well beaten in his first 3 runs before winning two big money conditions races basically, never even attempted a group race in Europe at 2yo.
The race generally attracts decent animals who rank below the top level in Europe, it is invariably won by a performance in the low to mid 110s, ie G2 level, no need to build a theory about why these horses arent winning all the G1s in Europe, you wouldnt expect them to as if they were good enough its unlikely they would have ran in the first place, its a last chance saloon. Imo, the only hope these horses have is if they are actually middle distance horses in the making, as in the case of Masar, as I hoped with Line of Duty, but this is not the normal type who runs in the race. The evidence is utterly overwhelming that running in the race is not detrimental to a horses chances of maintaining their ability at 3yo, no matter how much you tweak the conditions to "only uk horses, or "only winners" etc, there is no anomaly in the data. Many of our horses are bought in America and have US pedigrees, it makes absolutely no sense that it would affect UK horses differently than US. Our pedigree is massively influenced by horses who proved to be best at the ultimate test of balance, speed and stamina, the tight tracks arent going to ruin the average horse, and our top trainers arent going to send ones that it might.
Moving on. Is one of you flat boys going to start a Breeders Cup thread. That would be far more positive huh.......
Very true. I could name a few horses who were rated higher than their achievements and consequently lifting the ratings of horses they beat to what could almost be considered non sensical. I would not wish to detract from how good the horses are/were, merely that the hoses they beat did not justify the rating. I still think ratings should be split; one based on facts and a subjective one based on professional opinion of how good they actually are. So for example 130p7 means factual evidence such as time and conditions produce 130 but the way it won suggests the horse is at least 7lb better
Runs at Newcastle today and currently fav at around 13/8. No idea how he will handle the surface but I guess it is the same for all of them.
I am not interested in most of the Breeders Cup. I rarely have more than two or three bets in any year. I have followed it for more than thirty years though. I remember Pebbles well and had money on Miesque both times she won. Back in those early days it was the case of UK runners being expected to win but pretty much failing. Even Dancing Brave met defeat in 1986. My own best Breeders Cup was in 1994 when Barathea formed part of three winners from four selections and I landed an each-way four fold. I would have won a small fortune had Henry Cecil's Eltish won the Juvenile at 17/1 but he finished second to favourite Timber Country, who mowed him down late. Pat Eddery rode Eltish into the lead that day but once Timber Country got going it was clear that the jackpot was not going to be hit. It was a memorable night for me because I had been asked to step in for someone who was too ill to submit four selections for Breeders Cup Night as part of an ongoing Sports selections competition. My picks on the night resulted in him coming from sixth in the standings, into 3rd place and winning a cash prize. Miserable sod never even bought me a pint! Still, my own bets paid for a few jars. This year's Breeders Cup is not a great looking renewal from my perspective as not many of the races hold much interest for me. I am slightly tempted with Old Persian in the Turf race because I wanted to take on Bricks And Mortar. The US trained horse has a sequence going but it hasn't been in strong company and Magic Wand is no great shakes as runner up in his last win. He is yet to tackle 12F and until he proves successful at the trip he has an element of doubt at the odds. Old Persian has the habit of throwing in a poor run but at his best he is decent. He didn't quite develop into an Arc horse as I felt he might do but he could hardly have run worse than Ghaiyyath did if he had gone there. Anthony Van Dyck is not a bet for me at 9/4, so Old Persian at 4/1 looked the bet to me in the hope that he is on a good curve coming in. Having gone against Albigna on account of the ground I had better pick one for the race. Daahyeh is likely to be better suited by conditions tonight and if she is to win at a mile this is probably as good a chance as she will get. The Rockfel hasn't worked out well though and she beat a maiden home that day who ran like a drain next time. At the odds I went for Shadn, who has improved steadily this year. She beat a French group winner last time and this might just be her cup of tea. At 16/1 she was a low stakes interest for me. Kimari 11/2 Win only ante-post Old Persian 4/1 Win only Shadn 16/1 EW 4 places These are my plays for the meeting. I have had a fun bet on Graceful Kitten at 25/1 with 4 places each-way. A good bit to find but he's unbeaten and looked quite speedy last time. Hopefully he may last home for a place.
