Daily Racing Thread Friday 6th. Sept. 2019

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Friday's Meetings

Newcastle
A/W 7 Races 1:30-4:55p.m.
Haydock
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:05p.m.
Ascot
Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:15p.m.
Kilbeggan(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:15-7:20p.m.
Musselburgh(E)
Flat 7 Races 4:25-7:30p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:40-8:40p.m.

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Good Luck <ok>
 
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Morning

4.00 Haydock-Alemaratalyoum @ 9-4 [Skybet]

Like the jockey booking for this shrewd stable
 
A couple of interesting debut runners today from top stables

4.20 Newcastle-Critical Voltage...currently 2-1
7.10 Kempton-White Moonlight..15-8
 
I notice Chris wall has booked Richard Kingscote for Ice Lord 14/1 ,will enjoy conditions and crucially has the best jockey for that track !!
 
The 1.45 Haydock sees an interesting mix of fillies with little bits of form taking on well bred newcomers.

Ursulina was tried in Listed company last time but was 6th of the 6 runners. Not beaten that far but her official rating of 88 and the 7 lbs penalty leave her vulnerable to my eyes. Previously 2nd to Summer Romance, that race has worked out awfully, including the winner, since. I think Ursulina is poor value and a risky proposition today.

Tulip Fields is just about holding onto favouritism here but is on the drift. The Johnston filly was 2nd on debut but didn't improve on that effort when 3rd next time, clocking RPRs of 77 on both occasions. You would think it likely that she will need more than that to win this race today. By Golden Horn, the step up in trip today might help but neither of her races has worked out well and the sole winner from her most recent race scrambled home off 68 in a Nursery, so the form level seems weak.

Newcomer Heart Reef has been backed today and she is trained by Ralph Beckett. She cost 220,000 Euros and is a daughter of Australia. She has no fancy entries I can see and the sire is a bit of an unknown quantity for now. At 3/1 I couldn't be backing Heart Reef, even if the money is often ominous in races like this one.

On breeding I prefer Dusty Dream, as her sire is Dubawi and the dam is Memory. Dubawi is well established, while Memory won the Cherry Hinton as a 2YO for Richard Hannon senior. Memory didn't train on at 3YO but her progeny so far have been decent enough, with the best of a small sample probably being Call To Mind in 3rd behind Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup. Trained by William Haggas and owned by the Queen Dusty Dream holds a Fillies Mile entry. With plenty in her favour on paper it is worrying to see Dusty Dream such a market negative today.

In the end I decided to buck the betting trend and go with Dusty Dream here. The fillies with the form look nothing special. Heart Reef id just too skinny and Dusty Dream should be somewhat streetwise for William Haggas and odds of 11/2 were a sufficient carrot on a day when no much caught my eye.

1.45 Haydock Dusty Dream 11/2

Hopefully her Majesty will also be shouting "Go on you dancer" this afternoon.
 
afternoon,fellas!

haydock,1 45:

well,i can see your point,grendel,regarding URSULINA,and you may be right,but i think,shes better than she could show the last twice,especially,as this is a much easier assignment for her.so,unless some of the newcomers is above-average,she is destined to go well today.

ascot,1 55:

a big field,but probably not too many,that can be honestly considered,but thats something,you never know with these youngsters.KLOPP OF THE KOP ran as well,as could be expected behind the impressive mums tipple at york last time out,and with a bit of progress,should be the one to beat here.
 
Thought they said that they did suffer from his win as no one backed him... The stats are even more against him doing a 3-peat...
 
haydock,2 20:

another trappy race,as theres not a lot of form to go on,but ESPRIT ROSE has an appealing pedigree,and hails from a top yard,so she gets a narrow nod here..
 
Dusty Dream was backed in to 7/2 but was pretty hopeless. Held up, she made an effort briefly but just didn't look very talented. No Fillies Mile for her.

I was correct in thinking the ones with form were vulnerable but it was the other newcomer Heart Reef who capitalised from 50/1 shot Rainbow Jet who had come here with a 63 rating after two previous starts. It looks quite a poor race based on her placing, even if we allow her further progress from the 63 rating.
 
haydock,2 55:

a competitive handicap,where more than one are quite temptingly treated.UNABATED,though,is definitely very well handicapped,and comes here after a good win last time out,and could still be well ahead of his mark today.must have had a lot of problems in his career,but could be making up for lost time.
 
NassauBoard said:
Stats?
Click to expand...

At the time Nass most of the reports leading into the race were that Tiger wouldn't do the double back-2-back wins as no horse had done it since Red Rum, maybe a place at best...

Going for a treble will certainly see the media. papers, pundits saying no chance no, surely…?!?
 
redcgull said:
At the time Nass most of the reports leading into the race were that Tiger wouldn't do the double back-2-back wins as no horse had done it since Red Rum, maybe a place at best...

Going for a treble will certainly see the media. papers, pundits saying no chance no, surely…?!?
Click to expand...

It’s a glorified cross country race now, so stats go out the window.
 
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