Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 21st. August 2019

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Wednesday's Meetings

Bath
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:15p.m.
York
Flat 6 Races 1:55-4:50p.m.
Carlisle
Flat 8 Races 2:05-5:55p.m.
Killarney
Mixed 7 Races 2:10-5:35p.m.
Worcester(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:00-8:00p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:45-8:45p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
The Acomb Stakes sees Charlie Hills' Persuasion as favourite and he made a winning start at Goodwood when largely unconsidered at 16/1. A reasonably expensive son of Acclamation, he gets the oft used comment "Can take the step up in class in his stride" from the unimaginative Timeform preview blurb writer. While that may well be the case the favourite King Of Athens, who was heavily backed for that Goodwood Maiden, stank the place out completely and was only 5th when second favourite subsequently. Charlie Hills is by no means my favourite and I try to take on his favourites in scenarios like the Acomb race.

Harpocrates sets the standard in some respects, as a fairly exposed runner with several tie ins on formlines. Ropey Guest is actually the highest rated in the field after being 6th in the Coventry but he was 200/1 in that Royal Ascot race and I don't trust his form for one minute, although I see two selections for him at 20/1 and can only assume some are keeping faith in the 101 rating from the Coventry, rather than focusing on the fact that it is 42 runs and 181 days since trainer George Margarson had a winner.

Plenty of tips about for Mark Johnston's Kingbrook considering that he is a 12/1 shot. The son of Kingman is entitled to come forward but it looked a weak race he landed last time even if the 1-2 were well clear. 12 runs have seen 1 winner, off 72 in a Nursery and 11 unplaced efforts since. This is much tougher I feel.

The one I have been with since betting opened is Joseph O'Brien's Vitalogy. The son of No Nay Never made a winning start when unfancied at 25/1 on debut and he beat yardstick Harpocrates that day when getting 5 lbs. Vitalogy closed up well from an unpromising position that day and he finished strongly late on to swoop to victory. Vitalogy seems certain to be suited by the step up in trip and I feel he will confirm form with Harpocrates here. There should be more to come and he is already the best of his dam's offspring. I thought he was a decent bet at 6/1 and along with Liberty Beach in the Lowther at 11/4 were my early selections for the Ebor meeting.

Still available at 9/2 in a few places I have a feeling that Vitalogy may go favourite and I would make him favourite if I were framing the prices.

2.25 York Vitalogy 9/2
 
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My thoughts on the Juddmonte International Stakes are here

At first look I thought Logician was a false favourite for the Great Voltigeur Stakes (G2), having won his first 2 races in minor events. But, his last race when stepped up to 12f was a massive improvement, clocking a fast time winning with ease. That makes his opponents look rather slow by comparison so the 11/10 looks fair enough on reflection
 
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Crystal Ocean sbojld be odds on in my opinion. I fear Japan though, i have a sneaking feeling he is AOB best 3yo.
Damota Gold i am on as well as to follow up for winning for me on Saturday.
 
Morning

Away from York...am backing

6.00 Worcester-That's A Given @ 3-1 [Bet 365]
 
mallafets123 said:
Crystal Ocean sbojld be odds on in my opinion. I fear Japan though, i have a sneaking feeling he is AOB best 3yo.
Damota Gold i am on as well as to follow up for winning for me on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Needs soft ground imo, King Of Comedy is definitely overpriced at 4/1 , fresh for this , gosden knows what’s needed .
 
rudebwoy said:
Needs soft ground imo, King Of Comedy is definitely overpriced at 4/1 , fresh for this , gosden knows what’s needed .
Click to expand...
Different variants today but I don't think KOC is as close to Enable as Crystal Ocean is. We shall see.
 
If Japan wins today, with the other main contenders not running below par, his odds for the Arc will tumble and could even become fav. Currently at 9/1, is he worth a small interest just in case?

If you think today's race is between Crystal Ocean and Japan, back Crystal Ocean today at 11/10 and japan at 9/1 for the Arc. If it Crystal Ocean wins today you have made a very small profit with a free bet on Japan for the Arc. If Japan wins today you could lay off Japan in the Arc or be sitting on a good value bet
 
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Ron said:
If Japan wins today, with the other main contenders not running below par, his odds for the Arc will tumble and could even become fav. Currently at 9/1, is he worth a small interest just in case?

If you think today's race is between Crystal Ocean and Japan, back Crystal Ocean today at 11/10 and japan at 9/1 for the Arc. If it Crystal Ocean wins today you have made a very small profit with a free bet on Japan for the Arc. If Japan wins today you could lay off Japan in the Arc or be sitting on a good value bet
Click to expand...
Smart idea i'll do that, i think Japan will be in the top 3 anyway
 
I much prefer Crystal Ocean and I think 11/8 is a good enough price for him. His form looks much more solid.

King Of Comedy kicked off the season with a modest enough performance at Yarmouth. Odds-on that day, it was harder work than expected. I opposed him with Sangarius next time but King Of Comedy put in a much improved showing in winning well in promising fashion. The crux of his chance today is his run in the St James Palace Stakes and how strong the form is. Too Darn Hot is the only horse really propping the form up and with King Of Comedy trying a new trip now there is an added question mark for me and I just don't fancy him.

Japan was 3rd in the Derby but the form of that looks woeful. Sir Dragonet was the latest colt to put a dagger into the heart of the form strength and I am strongly against Japan here. His two wins since both look very weak and the drop in trip looks counter intuitive to me. For me he's at least half the odds he should be for the Arc at 10/1 in a year where his trainer has a very mediocre looking 3YO squad. Circus Maximus looks a better bet at twice the odds of Japan here.

Elarqam has been finding his feet again and did well on soft ground last time. This is a tougher assignment but he's earned his place in the field.

In terms of a big priced each-way Regal Reality looks huge at 40/1. He became unstuck in the mud last time and an earlier third behind Enable and Magical gives him an each-way poke here as a Brigadier Gerard winner who seems generally on the up. Back on a decent surface he may just surprise a few here and a couple of quid each-way at 40/1 was risked for an interest.

I think Crystal Ocean will put them to the sword here. He is solid and I feel he will win comfortably against opponents with questions.

I have doubled Crystal Ocean with Dakota Gold, who did my selection Summerghand at Ripon last Saturday. He won well that day and looked likely to win again under a penalty. He's up 5 lbs with the penalty today but 6/1 looks very fair as a horse hitting top form at the right time.

1.55 Dakota Gold 6/1
3.35 Crystal Ocean 11/8

Win double

3.35 Regal Reality 40/1 EW

I am hoping Constantinople can win today to enhance his Leger chances. Logician is all the rage but is pretty skinny. The Gosden horse has come from 12/1 to 7/1 for the Leger without doing anything and he will be favourite if he wins today but I just think he is short enough for the Classic at 7/1 and am holding on grimly to my ticket with 33/1 on Constantinople in hope of the dream surviving as far as Doncaster next month.
 
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afternoon,mates!

the 1 55 at york is as competitive as it gets,with plenty of chances about.my choice,though,is CASPIAN PRINCE e w.ive always liked him a lot,and though not at his best in recent starts,he has a good high draw,so if he gets to the rails in the lead early on,can run a blinder today.
 
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1.55 very competitive opener at York.
a lot going with the favourite, but maybe this is the day that Final Venture finally wins one ?
a bit past it now but I always have an each way bet on Caspian Prince. Today at 25/1
2.25 always hard to know with 2 year olds. Persuasion was very impressive at Goodwood but so too was Vitalogy in Ireland. One of these 2 to win.
3.00 Logician looks hard to beat
3.35 Crystal Ocean, Elarqam each way
4.15 CARNWENAN each way - at 13/2 might be the bet of the day
4.50 Praxeology for Dettori and Mark Johnston.
Hurstwood possible each way bet at 40/1 ridden by Daniel Tudhope. won at York earlier this season
 
jumpsfan said:
afternoon,mates!

the 1 55 at york is as competitive as it gets,with plenty of chances about.my choice,though,is CASPIAN PRINCE e w.ive always liked him a lot,and though not at his best in recent starts,he has a good high draw,so if he gets to the rails in the lead early on,can run a blinder today.
Click to expand...

I see you just pipped me to it regarding Caspian Prince! Really hope he goes well today!
 
Steveo said:
I see you just pipped me to it regarding Caspian Prince! Really hope he goes well today!
Click to expand...
well,ive had my fair share of success over the years with him,so he dont owe me anything.would be great to see the old boy run well..
 
York selections...

1:55 - Arecibo @ 14/1
2:25 - Vitalogy @ 5/1
3:00 - Logician
3:35 - Crystal Ocean
4:15 - Blakeney Point @ 10/1
4:50 - Pop Dancer @ 8/1

Good luck to all who are playing today...<cheers> <ok>
 
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Grendel said:
The Acomb Stakes sees Charlie Hills' Persuasion as favourite and he made a winning start at Goodwood when largely unconsidered at 16/1. A reasonably expensive son of Acclamation, he gets the oft used comment "Can take the step up in class in his stride" from the unimaginative Timeform preview blurb writer. While that may well be the case the favourite King Of Athens, who was heavily backed for that Goodwood Maiden, stank the place out completely and was only 5th when second favourite subsequently. Charlie Hills is by no means my favourite and I try to take on his favourites in scenarios like the Acomb race.

Harpocrates sets the standard in some respects, as a fairly exposed runner with several tie ins on formlines. Ropey Guest is actually the highest rated in the field after being 6th in the Coventry but he was 200/1 in that Royal Ascot race and I don't trust his form for one minute, although I see two selections for him at 20/1 and can only assume some are keeping faith in the 101 rating from the Coventry, rather than focusing on the fact that it is 42 runs and 181 days since trainer George Margarson had a winner.

Plenty of tips about for Mark Johnston's Kingbrook considering that he is a 12/1 shot. The son of Kingman is entitled to come forward but it looked a weak race he landed last time even if the 1-2 were well clear. 12 runs have seen 1 winner, off 72 in a Nursery and 11 unplaced efforts since. This is much tougher I feel.

The one I have been with since betting opened is Joseph O'Brien's Vitalogy. The son of No Nay Never made a winning start when unfancied at 25/1 on debut and he beat yardstick Harpocrates that day when getting 5 lbs. Vitalogy closed up well from an unpromising position that day and he finished strongly late on to swoop to victory. Vitalogy seems certain to be suited by the step up in trip and I feel he will confirm form with Harpocrates here. There should be more to come and he is already the best of his dam's offspring. I thought he was a decent bet at 6/1 and along with Liberty Beach in the Lowther at 11/4 were my early selections for the Ebor meeting.

Still available at 9/2 in a few places I have a feeling that Vitalogy may go favourite and I would make him favourite if I were framing the prices.

2.25 York Vitalogy 9/2
Click to expand...


I like the look of YORKSHIRE GOLD here.Slowly away in a Leicester maiden he finished the race with some purpose, will be well suited to the extra furlong,and holding a group two entry looks a fair bet at 14/1
 
york,3 00: GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES

logician falls well into the could be anything category,but NAYEF ROAD is a typical hardy and progressive johnston horse,and surely deserves his place in this field.didnt do much wrong this seasn,quite the opposite in fact,and should be bang there here..
 
york,3 35: JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL

well,ive been thinking long and hard over the last couple of days,if i should back ELARQAM here,because ive a nagging worry,he might not be good enough,but now im giving him the benefit of the doubt,as i adore this horse,and if connections are so brave to supplement him for this,i ll be brave too and back him.if hes in the first three,i ll be more than happy with that.anything better is a bonus.
 
Vitalogy seemed a bit slow today, he never looked like he had the pace and the exposed Harpocrates ran a much better race of the two who met last time. Aidan's horse was collared but gave it a good go from the front.

Shaking my head at the odds of Persuasion. Time and again the Charlie Hill's runners fail to progress and the price seemed all wrong on him. Ropey Guest ran well enough for his long winless stable but overall I don't think this was a good renewal of the Acomb.

Constantinople ran OK but could not lay a glove in Logician, who will take all the beating in the Leger now. This was a strong performance from the Gosden horse and he is serving it up to O'Brien if the other UK trainers are not doing so. Generally 2/1 for the Leger now, I did see the ante-post guy on At The Races put Logician up at 12/1 a couple of weeks ago, so that looks good business from him. Yet again a Handicap graduate emerges to be a strong St Leger player. Constantinople will have place prospects at Doncaster and he kept on well enough today but it looks a tough ask to reverse form with the Grey who should become a popular horse with the public. Having done me last time, Nayef Road stank the place out this time miles behind Constantinople. That seems pretty typical of the "Muck and Nettles" that you get with Mark Johnston runners though and the horse will probably pop up at big odds to do someone else later in the season.

Waiting on Crystal Ocean for the double with Dakota Gold now, so fingers crossed.
 
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