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Article: The Place Betting Experiment | Horse Racing

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Sep 8, 2011.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    <laugh>
     
    #41
  2. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    An interesting theory Oddy - and one that WILL show a profit long term.

    My betting guru when I was a raw youth many years ago was Supernap, of the defunct Daily Herald, who asserted that place betting was the equivalent of buying money - if you could find a bookie to take your bets. And therby hangs the tale! Most bookies thought the same and would only take each way bets - and I'm very surprised to hear that some will now take place only bets.

    Supernap DID advocate some very boring betting patterns and you need an iron will just to stick to that pattern - but if you can you WILL show a profit. Among the conditions laid down - and I can't remember them all, it's in his book if you can find a copy &#8211; but restricted to 8-10 runners, avoid sellers, maiden auctions and handicaps. There are more restrictions but as I said &#8211; my memory lets me down &#61514;

    Good luck if you take it further.
     
    #42
  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    <cheers> Reebok - got my first "winner" today, Timpanist 4.00 Brighton came 2nd and paid 2.30. Mind you I was lucky as I picked it last night and come the off we were down to 7 runners <yikes> would've been gutted if it had finished 3rd
     
    #43
  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Thursday 8th - Money Never Sleeps (4th) -10
    Friday 9th - Glenridding (5th) -10
    Sat 10th - Swiss Dream (18th) -10
    Sun 11th - Pistol Jack (fell) -10
    Mon 12th - Timpanist (2nd paid 2.30) - returns 23

    Balance after 5 days: &#8364;43

    Tuesday:

    4.20 Folkestone Karuga
     
    #44
  5. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Karuga managed to grab 2nd place but the miserly tote place return of 1.20 was a little disappointing.

    Thursday 8th - Money Never Sleeps (4th) -10
    Friday 9th - Glenridding (5th) -10
    Sat 10th - Swiss Dream (18th) -10
    Sun 11th - Pistol Jack (fell) -10
    Mon 12th - Timpanist (2nd paid 2.30) - returns 23
    Tues 13th - Karuga (2nd paid 1.20) - returns 12

    Balance after 6 days: &#8364;45

    So I need to find something to pay 3.50 tote place on day 7 to break even for the week - time for a decent study <ok>
     
    #45
  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Last pick of the 7 day experiment:

    4.10 Listowel Muirhead
     
    #46
  7. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Muirhead a non-runner so Lenabane in the same race
     
    #47
  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Lenabane gets 3rd and pays a juicy 2.60 tote place so my last &#8364;10 stake returns 26

    Thursday 8th - Money Never Sleeps (4th) -10
    Friday 9th - Glenridding (5th) -10
    Sat 10th - Swiss Dream (18th) -10
    Sun 11th - Pistol Jack (fell) -10
    Mon 12th - Timpanist (2nd paid 2.30) - returns 23
    Tues 13th - Karuga (2nd paid 1.20) - returns 12
    Wed 14th - Lenabane (3rd paid 2.60) - returns 26

    Balance after 7 days: &#8364;61

    After a disastrous first 4 days I'm quite please to be only 9% down after a week with 3 consecutive returns. So pleased in fact, that I'm going to bore you all with this for another week <ok>
     
    #48
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I might join you Oddy. Having picked one horse today ((in response to Cyc's Trifecta bets) which won, I've probably had my quota of winners for the week, but I'll give it a go. I quite like the idea of the Trifecta bets too.

    I'm not doing one a day though. I'm going for as many as I think each day (some days may be none)

    For tomorrow I'm going for:

    Bu Naaji 3.40 Yar 9/4 (now 2/1)*
    Hot Rod Mamma 4.20 Ayr 7/2 (now 11/2)*
    Stepharlie 1.50 Ayr 5/1 (now 17/2)*

    * As at mid day UK time.

    £30 spent (Sunk)
     
    #49
  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Good stuff Ron. I opened an account with Totesport tonight so from tomorrow I will be placing real tote place bets <ok> I am keen to stick to just one per day though. Up to now I have developed the folowing tactics:

    NO maidens
    Ideally 9-11 runners
    Only 16+ runners if I really fancy one to get placed (this will often give a decent return like Lenabane did today)
    Avoid anything shorter than about 2/1 (prob won't pay more than 1.10 place)
     
    #50

  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I've added the forecast odds Oddy. Hopefully they won't shorten too much.
     
    #51
  12. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    So today I have placed the first real bet of this experiment with Totesport:

    4.30 Pontefract Handles For Forks (£10 tote place)
     
    #52
  13. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Strange name Oddy - I think they missed off a word ....

    Should have been For Forks Hake :)
     
    #53
  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I might be saying "Forks Sake" at 4.35 Reebok
     
    #54
  15. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    <laugh> Best of luck on you're daring raid mate. Six months from now, there won't be a bookie on the planet who won't crap himself when you walk through the door.
     
    #55
  16. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    <cheers> Cyc I have some brown envelopes on order <laugh>
     
    #56
  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Is that with fright or laughter Cyc?
     
    #57
  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    That's the first of my tenners down the pan. Good start, good start.
     
    #58
  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Off to a flying start Oddy. £30 down the pan. Just like that.
     
    #59
  20. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Feck it 4th <doh>

    -10
     
    #60

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