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Daily Racing Thread Saturday 27th. July 2019

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jul 26, 2019.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Saturday's Meetings

    Gowran

    Flat 7 Races 1:25-4:45p.m.
    Newcastle
    A/W 7 Races 1:40-5:05p.m.
    Ascot
    Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m.
    Chester
    Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:35p.m.
    York
    Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:25p.m.
    Newmarket
    Flat 7 Races 2:15-5:40p.m.
    Salisbury(E)
    Flat 7 Races 5:15-8:15p.m.
    Lingfield(E)
    Flat 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m.

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Racing Post
    Sporting Life

    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
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  2. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Hello, all.

    HEY JONESY goes tomorrow in the valuable £150k 7 furlong handicap at Ascot (3.00). It’s a big 7 days for him as next weekend the old boy is also earmarked for ‘The Steward’s Cup’. I’ve spoken about Hey Jonesy enough this past month so won’t bore everyone solid about him anymore suffice to say I think he is incredibly well perched on just 105 tomorrow (even more so when you consider that 3 months ago he finished just 1.25 lengths, off levels, behind an animal now rated 119) and would expect him to go very close to winning one of these two mega handicaps. And his run at Haydock Park last Friday should have put him spot on for this weekend’s contest. Furthermore, the jockey booking of old boy Seamie Heffernan is eye-catching and most welcome. I think Ladbrokes current quotes of 28/1 represents very decent each-way value re Hey Jonesy.

    Meanwhile, there is one running in the card commencer at Salisbury, of the morrow, the heat restricted to Gentleman Corinthians only (5.15), who is of interest. There are probably a couple of dozen reasons why you should ignore BOUNTY PURSUIT (such as he has no form at the trip, has been disappointing this term, only beat one home last time etc, etc) but there are also a few reasons to make you sit up and think, ‘by Jove he looks interesting in this’. Namely his mark of 64 is the lowest that Bounty Pursuit has run off for over 30 months (and was perched as highly as 75 less than a year ago), he’s got respectable course form (-230), is a winner on ‘good to firm’ so should handle the underfoot conditions, was heavily punted, into second favouritism, last time out at Newbury in a quite nice race, the stable have had success in the past in these sort of ‘niche’ affairs, i.e. apprentice/conditionals/Corinthian contests (Mouchee last December being the most obvious), whilst his Corinthian rider appears more Sam Waley-Cohen than Victoria Pendleton as Mr James King, at the time of writing, has had 4 winners since mid-March (from 16 rides). It’s a risky recommendation, team, as Bounty Pursuit is prone to throw in a howler but if A-OK he has the potential to make a complete mockery of a mark of just 64.

    Good luck all.
     
    #2
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  3. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    #3
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
  4. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    I’m off to Ascot tomorrow to see the mighty ENABLE win the King George!

    Great to see this fine race regain its prestige this year, with the Derby winner also involved. I think Defoe and Crystal Ocean are top class opponents, but I think Enable is probably at a different level
     
    #4
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  5. Mick Malones Mauser

    Mick Malones Mauser Active Member

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    I'll be in Ascot myself tomorrow.
    First time there, looking forward to it
     
    #5
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  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Loads of meetings again for Saturday but with Goodwood next week there are plenty of unappealing small fields at York and HQ as trainers keep their powder dry for the Sussex Downs.

    In the Newmarket 4:00, Pass The Vino returns to the course and distance of his 25/1 surprise latest win, now chasing the hat-trick, with Princess Power back for another go 5lb better off. The obvious danger is first-time-in-a-handicap winner Swindler, who may still be ahead of the handicapper. The other one with a credible form chance is Dominus, who won easily last time and would not mind a drop of rain. Will have to wait and see how much rain they get at HQ before deciding what to back in this one as there may be non runners.

    The main meeting at Ascot starts with the Princess Margaret and a short-priced favourite Summer Romance. Whilst it is questionable that she beat anything good at Newmarket last time, she slammed them with the minimum of fuss and must surely make it three from three unless one of her unexposed rivals is top draw.

    Whilst the betting suggests that the King George is some sort of penalty kick for Enable, I do not think that will be the case. She is obviously entitled to come on for her win in the Eclipse, where reportedly only 85 per cent fit, but how this race is run might not be ideal. My expectation is that Frankie will try to keep it simple and sit near the pace, of which there might be plenty.

    There has to be a general assumption that Hunting Horn or Norway (or both) are here as pacemakers; and obviously the latter finished behind the Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck at Epsom and in the Irish version. Although the three year olds are in receipt of 8lb from Enable, I do not think that they are within 8lb of her ability and I expect Crystal Ocean to give them 11lb as well.

    Waldgeist continues to pick up valuable prizes in small fields at home but was behind Crystal Ocean at Royal Ascot and there is no reason to think he will reverse that form now. Sir Michael’s Sea The Stars horse was just touched off in this by his stablemate last year and could well go one better.

    Defoe has done nothing wrong winning his last two (Morando and Salouen behind both times) but this does require a career best if the big two run to their best form.

    Japanese raider Cheval Grand is overpriced by the bookies on his form because they know that British punters will not back him. The seven year old’s staying-on second in the Dubai Sheema (Hunting Horn and Magic Wand behind) is probably not good enough to win but his home form, including the Japan Cup two years ago, is not reflected by his 40/1 price tag.

    I am hoping (expecting) to be celebrating Enable winning her eleventh straight at around quarter to four. She could go on to equal Frankel’s winning streak but she won’t be unbeaten.
     
    #6
  7. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Morning

    2.25 Ascot-Rectory Road

    Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet Victor]

    Apprentice is good value for his claim
     
    #7
  8. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Any fancies for Newcastle today (don’t ask <laugh>)
     
    #8
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  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Steve Bruce to be sacked by Christmas <ok> <laugh>
     
    #9
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  10. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    By the end of September more like <laugh>
     
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  11. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

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    Today could be the day for ripp orf. He’s now well handicapped and always seems to rise to the occasion with Hayley, who wouldn’t? He loves ascot in big field handicaps. My only worry is the ground, I think he likes it quick which he won’t get today.
     
    #11
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  12. Black Caviar

    Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I was very keen on Crystal Ocean before the rain and backed him during the week but with the ground now firmly in Enables favour id be surprised to see her beaten.

    Subjectivist 4/1 in the 4.15 looks a fair price considering the level of his collateral form, also proven in soft ground, he will surely take a bit of beating and should be clear fav for this.
     
    #12
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  13. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    If she stays unbeaten this season and wins the Arc does she surpass what Frankel achieved?
     
    #13
  14. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Morning all.. 2 bets for me today:

    Ascot 1.50pm Aroha 20/1 each way. Likely the favourite obliges but at these odds I 'll take a punt with this filly who ran well in the Albany. Decent jockey on board this time and quite like horses with the most experience in these races. That's my Saturday VALUE play...

    York 2.05pm Get Knotted 9/2 to win the race named after him. Has a good record at York and with cut in the ground will go close. Quite surprised 9/2 was available this morning..
     
    #14
  15. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    Good pick Pops that’s the horse I had at 100/1 ew at Royal Ascot
     
    #15
  16. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Good shout..really like the jockey booking today Oisin Murphy who is different class to what he s had on his back previously..:emoticon-0148-yes:
     
    #16
  17. jumpsfan

    jumpsfan Well-Known Member

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    hi fellas!

    ascot,1 50:

    well,summer romance is clearly the one to beat here,with proven pattern form already,and no worrys about the trip.but,from an e w point of view,i think,GOOD VIBES might be the one.she missed ascot due to a dirty scope,but it may have been a blessing in disguise,as she was spared a hard race,and could be a bit fresher than some others today.also is she held in high regard by her trainer,who says,she might be the best hes trained.so,definite e w shout.
     
    #17
  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I love Enable. Which is why I fear for her every time she runs. She doesn't seem to have improved a great deal and I wonder if her injury has prevented her from reaching her full potential. She won the Eclipse easily enough, despite being short of peak fitness. She cannot afford to be short today as Crystal Ocean has improved and sits uncomfortably 1lb below Enable on Timeform ratings. Also, I don't trust the AOB team of 4 not to do their best to hem her in. They might slow the pace, force her to either go wide, or go to the front too early, making her vulnerable to a late challenge by one of them. On fast ground she would have been up against it with Crystal Ocean who ran a cracker when just beaten by Poet's Word in very fast time last year. Over 12f the softening ground may just find him out (I see his next 2 entries are over 10f).

    Question is, how much has she come on since the Eclipse?

    How good is the Derby winner? That was a decent time he ran, despite not getting a clear run, and has probably improved since then. He also goes on soft so the rain won't be a problem for him

    Can't burden Enable with my selection so I'm going Anthony Van Dyck ew at 9/1
     
    #18
  19. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Close ..just a 2nd today at 20s :emoticon-0148-yes:
     
    #19
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  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    6,000gn for a very useful 2yo; Under the Stars won very well. For once a Ballymacoll family horse as she traces back to a full-sister to Reform. This is of course the family of Islington and North Light.
    Whoever put their hand up at the Sales must be pleased with themselves and probably looked back to Knighton House (Reform's sister) and Country House (Reform's dam). She must be worth 100times that now.
     
    #20
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2019

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