Daily Racing Thread Friday 19th. July 2019

Friday's Meetings

Nottingham
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:00p.m.
Killarney
Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:10p.m.
Newbury
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:15p.m.
Haydock
Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:25p.m.
Kilbeggan(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:35-8:50p.m.
Newmarket(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:45-8:55p.m.
Hamilton(E)
Flat 7 Races 6:00-9:15p.m.
Pontefract(E)
Flat 6 Races 6:25-9:05p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Can I ask a serious question??? What do the membership think of the entry of Hey Jonesy in the 7f conditions heat at Haydock Park (4.50) of the morrow???

My regular readers will know how much I like this old boy gelding and wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him, by the end of season, take a top notch race or a mega handicap. Re the latter this is especially relevant as Hey Jonesy is currently perched on a most attractive mark of 105. And this can be made look even more appealing when you consider that less than 3 months ago he was beaten just 1.25 lengths, off levels, by an animal currently rated 119.

He is in 2 extremely valuable, and high profile handicaps, in the space of 7 days from 27 July – Ascot’s ‘International’ and then ‘The Steward’s Cup’. That mentioned 105 is the mark he has been given in both these contests. Tomorrow’s 1st prize is, in comparison to these 2 races, a paltry £10k (in reality this ‘winning amount’ could be as low as £7k as finish 2nd and Hey Jonesy can still run off 105 at Goodwood/Ascot) and I can really see no benefit to the horses chance in both or one of these future races by him winning tomorrow – he’d incur a 5lbs penalty if he did win at Haydock Park and in effect see him have to run off 110 at Ascot and/or Goodwood.

Tomorrow’s race is further than Hey Jonesy has been for over a year and the same distance as the Ascot handicap so it could be argued that connections are ‘testing the water’ to see if he will last home. But if he does and wins then that extra 5lbs will still be incurred.

I do rate Hey Jonesy but dare I say this I don’t think he will be asked to win tomorrow (‘prep’ for one or both of these big handicaps, perhaps???) as surely it would be total and utter madness to win £10k tomorrow but then as a consequence greatly, greatly, greatly reduce your chance to win £94k at Ascot and/or £155k at Goodwood. Unless I am missing something, people.

In conclusion then I think that Hey Jonesy could win tomorrow with ease but to do so would in my belief be Bonkers with a capital ‘B’. Thoughts???

 

SUNDAY STAR 8:25 Newmarket 10/1

Has been very dissapointing so far this season but this represents a drop in class. The addition of Atzeni in the plate is a huge plus and the handicapper has relaxed his grip. If Andrea can get her to settle early she can outclass these.

 

Certainly a watchable race to see how he is ridden. It would be good to see him given no chance and making ground hand over fist at the finish, without being asked. Then pile on for the big one

 

G'day, all. While we're waiting for the restart of sand-racing at Southwell (Monday 26 August, apparently) here's a little racing-trivia question to keep the brain ticking over. I'll make a modest donation to the charity chosen by the poster of the first correct answer. Obviously, I can't stop you googling, though I'd rather you didn't, and the question isn't particularly obscure. The one-word answer is enough - no need to spell out the explanation.

On another July 19th, many years ago, if DOUBLE UP was No.1, what was No. 6 ?

 

Morning

7.40 Hamilton-Laugh A Minute

Each Way @ 7-1 [Paddy Power] 4 Places

Class horse in the race

 

Newbury 3.40
The two favs have both raced over 6f on gf ground at York. Both are entered in the Gimcrack so are expected to improve. Al Aakif covered the distance in 0.28 secs faster time carrying 3lb more than Repartee. This was, however, the former's second run winning by 1½l, whereas Repartee was making his debut and won by 5l. Repartee's race was in May so he has 2 months of improvement in him, whereas Al Aakif's run was only 20 days ago.

On that basis, I would expect Repartee to start clear fav. 2/1 on these 2 against the field looks a fairly safe bet if one can get 2/1 each of them. The 2/1 Repartee has gone unfortunately but someone may offer 2s for a minute or two. I expect 2's is more likely to be available for Al Aakif on the course.

If I went for one it would have to be Repartee, currently 15/8

 

interesting stats,ron,but i still think,that AL AAKIF will have the measure of repartee today,as it doesnt happen too often,that a penalised horse wins in the manner that he did,so he might be special.but theres probably not much between those two..

 

Hmmmm and the betting isn't going as I expected either. I've probably put the mockers on the chances of Repartee

 

Misty Grey will probably go off like a bullet so should be a truly run race with the best horse winning

 

Hello, the odds have swung at the last minute. I could be right after all, even if I have picked the wrong one to win

 

FFS

 

What an odd little race

 

I will never learn. Failed to look at the other runners - again
Shadn
Asc G2 62K 5f GS 9-0 13/25 btn 6¾L Raffle Prize 9-0

"Athletic; raced near side, dwelt, held up in rear, effort just over 2f out, switched right over 1f out, switched right again and kept on to pass beaten horses inside final furlong, never troubled leaders, 10th of 16 in group (op 50/1) "

50/1, obviously unfancied. Btn less than 7l despite problems, by Raffle Prize

10/1 ew had to be the ew bet in the race with hindsight

 

well,we were both out of luck,unfortunately..

newbury,4 10:

prejudice might have the best piece of form,and is muchly respected,but could need a strong pace to be seen to best effect,and thats far from guaranteed here.so,i go with the unexposed SKYMAX instead.he shaped the last twice,as if this shorter trip would suit better,and isnt badly treated..

 

So often, knowing the result, one can see why the winner should have been given more consideration. I just don't have the time, nor inclination, to analyse all the runners in depth so I think I'll spare you all my half baked views in future

 

4:10 Past Master to make all. Also backed it to beat Skymax in a match bet @6/4

 

Brilliant by Harry Bentley.

 

Looking at the race this morning I decided not to play. There was not a lot in it on ratings and although Repartee had arguably more scope after the one run, the Ryan stable form was a concern.

I am not sure how many backers take stable form into account but I tend to worry when a stable is firing at less than 10%. Usually I will compare the 12 month average to the 14 day average to see how much difference there is. Kevin Ryan's 12 month average is just under 12% but his 14 day record was 2/41, which is a 4.88% strike rate and that is lower than I look for, particularly when thinking about quite short priced runners.

The Haggas stable were in much better sorts, sitting on 26% as a strike rate. The trouble with Haggas is that he wins a lot of small races with short priced horses to pad his statistics. If you want to win a three grand maiden race and have £250,000 to spend on a yearling, then William Haggas is your man to train it. To be fair to Haggas he has had a pretty good year but sometimes it just seems that he turns up with very little ammunition for the really good races at the top meetings.

I tried to translate the Queen Mary form back to a class 5 Novice race the other day. Coincidentally it was the filly who was one place ahead of Shadn at Royal Ascot. Multiply By Eight had been 12th behind Raffle Prize and was dropping from a Class 1 race down to Class 5. I thought she was a reasonable bet to upset the hotpot Hannon filly Dark Lady. In the end it wasn't to be at all and Dark Lady bolted up 5 lengths with Multiply By Eight totally feeble. The annoying thing was that Multiply By Eight ran to 83 at Royal Ascot on RPR and when dropped 4 classes proceeded to run to 61.

That's what makes this game damned difficult to predict and causes heads to be shaken across the land.

 

What price????