Her form this season had been uninspiring, the best effort was a RPR of 66 and she had only finished ahead of three horses in four races. Two efforts down the field at Newcastle and a poor run on heavy ground could perhaps have been overlooked in retrospect but the return to form was out of the blue really. Her Topspeed rating for her worst run this season was a lowly 8 but she was awarded a personal best on the clock of 81 for winning yesterday. If she were mine I would be looking to run again soon on fast ground under a penalty.
Secondo looks short now at 4/1. December 2014 was the last time he won a race and he is on a losing run of 23 races but at least he is down to a rating of 58 today, while his last win came from a mark of 89, so he is well down the weights from his younger days. His run at Chepstow in May wasn't bad on a RPR of 63 but last time at the track he could muster only 53 albeit that he met with some interference that day. Jaganory and Cool Strutter have chances along with Castlerea Tess, who is one of the few with winning form recently. Castlerea Tess is 2/3 at Chepstow and Jupiter is tied in with her from their previous start. In the end I sided with Jaganory, who is something of a course specialist despite only two wins here. He has run at the track 20 times and won at a similar time here last season. Feasibly handicapped in an open race, I would make him co favourite here at 5/1, so I think he's a shade of value at 13/2. 3.30 Chepstow Jaganory 13/2 2 pts win.
So I was on -31 before today, thankfully a 10/1 winner helps out a lot! Well after the rule4 it worked out at 9/1 so +18 back -13 looks a lot more bareable going into the last few days of the month. Tomorrow looks really tricky, because I actually like a few horses tomorrow and a few would fit in with the recent upturn in form of the selections. However I am not shirking out of a challenge so its the Scottish Stewards Cup handicap at 7.40 HAMILTON (Is that clear Rainer?) This race has lots of pace on, which is often the case in this race and it should pay to be on a horse that is likely to be patiently ridden. In a race where Lake Volta, Staxton and a few others (mainly drawn low to middle) are likely to go to the front. So I think we should concentrate on horses who will be able to follow the pace, and the one I like that can do that is Golden Apollo who would be a very appropriate winner on the eve of the 50th anniversary of the moon landings. This horse ran a really taking race last time out, and from the same mark he can go very well again. He likes big fields and I think he is drawn well to attack off the early pace. 2pt win at 8/1
Crystal clear,Nass,thank you. And, apart from the sexually-charged misspelling of bearable, the whole post is a model of clarity and accuracy. Hope GA wins for you.
Pretty decisive win and the money suggested a big run was expected. Decent run from Jaganory in second but couldn't match the pace of the winner. Forecast paid just over £24.
GA? Can’t even be bothered to full name the horse? And you are concerned with my spelling and lack of racecourse names!! Haha
The 7.40 Hamilton is obviously very open and the ones at the head of the betting don't particularly appeal to me as any value at single figure odds. I went with last year's winner George Bowen. The sprinter looked potentially smart in his younger days but hasn't quite reached the level he looked capable of at one time. A chance is taken that he can act better at Hamilton than he has been doing at other courses, Quite a decisive winner off 100 last year, he is 2 lbs higher now on 102 but at 16/1 a small stake can provide an interest in the hope that he has happy memories of the Scottish track from last year. 7.40 Hamilton George Bowen 16/1 2pts win.
Wasaayef was back out at Newmarket tonight and won at 7/4. National Treasure, a half million Euro Camelot filly was narrow favourite at 6/4 but was 3rd, while the even more expensive filly Alpen Rose, who cost 750,000 Euros, was runner up. Both the expensive fillies are Godolphin owned and the trio were nine lengths clear of the others in the race. The third filly tonight, National Treasure ran well for a long way and perhaps got a little tired late. On ground with more cut and with this experience under her belt she may be the one who ultimately does best of the 1-2-3 tonight.
It ended up soft at Hamilton, totally different to last year's race. George Bowen worked his way into a good enough position but weakened out of it at the business end. Golden Apollo never really got involved but he did win a thrilling battle with my selection, sadly short-heading him for 8th place
Aye, as you say, Golden Apollo never got involved. It was a really intriguing race as nothing got into it from off the pace. Tomorrow I am going for the 8:30 at Haydock and the selection is Compton Poppy @ 16/1 1pt EW (4 places with Paddy Power). The rationale here is that I think the race will be set up for her closing style, and they put blinkers on for the first time. Her run at Wolverhampton with the visor on in October 2018 suggests that she can win from this mark, and now after two runs this season, they've gone for headgear again. Her mark of 56 looks really interesting on the back of that October form!!! 16s is big and I think we will probably get 20s/25s in the morning too.
We would have to go to the threads ombudsman but Rainer will likely just mutter something about silly summer jumps racing and why is it on today of all days. The thread can have replacements, but I really don't fancy anything else today so it will be a non runner no bet day.
Redcar 5:15 Gymcana @ 9/1 2pt Should race prominently and be in best position when push comes to shove.
Another non runner!!! A result! Tomorrow we go to Windsor - the 7:20 This is a nice little sprint handicap in which Tom Morley runs three in his own colours and all three have good chances. Importantly for all three it looks like we have a few pace angles who should make it an honest (not extreme) test of these sprinters. The draw at Windsor could prove important, but with pace drawn in one and nine it shouldn't mean that we get a lopsided race in terms of pace. So the draw at Windsor this season - We've had 9 races at this trip with fields of 8 to 10 runners, and the records show - 3 7 8 7 (8) 4 5 3 8 1 6 2 5 4 2 9 7 5 1 1 8 7 9 10 8 5 (7) 7 (9) 2 (4) So that suggests to me that high drawn horses have the best of the draw, and what is really interesting about these numbers is that only three (in bold) have been in handicaps, the rest have been novice races in which you often get a wider spread of abilities at the weights. Those three handicaps were won as below (ATR form) ROYAL BIRTH (3) - slowly into stride, held up, headway chasing leaders halfway, ran on under pressure inside final furlong, led post ANGEL ALEXANDER (IRE) (7) - pressed leader, went to far rail and led halfway, ridden and went clear over 1f out, easily TOMAHAWK RIDGE (IRE) (1) - quickly away, led on rail, hung badly left from 2f out, ran on and in command towards finish Now, I am not one to say that ATR are talking bull with their reviews, but Tomahawk Ridge didn't race on the rail, but that isn't the point I am coming onto!! The point I wanted to bring was the Angel Alexander race, in which they went further across to the far rail. That race was on soft ground (despite that not being the official going) and if we have any cut in the ground tomorrow (as the official going suggests) then I think it might be best to be placed towards the centre of the course in the higher numbered stalls. That brings me onto the selection, which is a Tom Morley owned horse, but not the one carrying first colours (he is in the second colours but is third in the market of the three). The horse is Leo Minor and he is a really interesting horse on the form of his penultimate effort. He finished fourth in a Newmarket race, where he was all dressed up and found nowhere to go inside the final two furlongs. This is his way, and it is little surprise that he doesn't win very often (11 runs since last win) but that makes him a really interesting horse when he gets conditions that are likely to suit. Those conditions are a pace to chase and the ability to run through horses. Both of which should be perfect in this race. So here comes the additional, he has been dropped two pounds by the handicapper for his run last time out, in which he stumbled 2 furlongs out, whilst all of the trade papers are reporting this, the handicapper has seen in fit to drop his mark!! 2pt Win @ 7/1 Leo Minor
Timeform are quite keen on Leo Minor in their preview on ATR. The Racing Post describe his form as patchy but that his last run was promising considering that he stumbled. In contrast Timeform are against my selection, awarding her only two stars out of five in their assessment. I decided to give youth a chance here and Dancing Warrior is only 3YO and making only her second start in a Handicap. 5th from a mark of 89 at Sandown in April I was wondering why she has not been seen again since but I thought that was a fair run and some winners have come from the race since. It would be foolish to assume that Dancing Warrior can reach the heights another runner in that race has gone to since but there is surely some scope for improvement yet and this is a fairly exposed field she faces. The big improver from that Sandown race is Henry Candy's Kurious, who flopped in last place next time out but went on to win in Listed class when returned to Sandown. Kurious then beat Garrus in a Group 3, again at Sandown, and she is becoming something of a course specialist there. Dancing Warrior has a fair way to go to be anything like Kurious but she was third in a Listed race at Chantilly as a 2YO and if she improves from her April race I feel she would have a shout here. The market has shown some nibbling of the early 8/1 odds and I have seen her as low as 4/1 tonight. You can still get 11/2 though. She appealed to me as a gamble on her improving from an unexposed position. 7.20 Windsor Dancing Warrior 11/2 2pts win BOG.
Another loss! So short but sweet tomorrow 6:20 Chelmsford James Tate should win this but I think it will be his other horse. Power Link at 9/1 2pt win. Returning to the yard and if he can show anything like his juvenile form from Newcastle then he is thrown in.
Dancing Warrior came out of the stalls like a snail and never got involved. I thought Our Oystercatcher went off very short at 9/4 but he set a good clip before burning out in the closing stages. Leo Minor was also slowly away but at least made some headway. Shamshon finished well for 3rd but can't really catch a break from the handicapper and won't get any leeway after another solid effort tonight.
Watchable is certainly a big price this evening and he's had more joy at 6F than the 5F trip he ran over last time. He's getting on a bit now though and looks a bit high in the Handicap on 97. My biggest worry is that he has only run once at Chelmsford and it wasn't a good run. He was headed 4F out that day and seemed to weaken in the closing stages. I can't quite back him, even at 14/1 odds. The market is mainly about the tied in form of Alkaraama and Intuitive, 3YO's who dominate the betting and selection box for the race. Some will feel the Stoute horse is more likely to improve given his trainer's record and he did beat Intuitive over course and distance last time. Two pounds worse off for a half length advantage last time Alkaraama finished well that day and I feel he will confirm superiority on less favourable terms this time. With Embour a non-runner now and market support taking Alkaraama from an opening 3/1 in to 6/4, he's not really value to my eyes now. Intuitive is a best price of 15/8 now and they have a strong grip on the race at the coupled odds. I decided to go for Walk On Walter as an each-way play in this one. With the first two in the betting relatively tight it's not a race to throw much at for me and at 11/1 with the bare 8 runners and three places up for grabs I thought a small investment worthwhile. Walk On Walter doesn't have that much mileage on the clock and has won 6 of his 18 races. He is 211 in three starts over 6F at Chelmsford and his poor effort over 7F at the track may not have been helped by his being held up, as opposed to making the running/prominent as the usually is. On his Chelmsford form he may have a squeak and I thought he was the one outside of the two obvious candidates. Power Link seems easy to back at 16/1 in places. No doubt the obvious ones will fight it out but I'll go:- 6.20 Chelmsford Walk On Walter 11/1 BOG 1pt EW
