A Month of Nass

Did you see that Bowerman was sold for, a rather modest sounding, 52,000 gns at yesterday’s ‘Horses in Training Sale’. The purchaser was EAM Bloodstock.

 

Don’t pre-empt the end of month round up!!! I think the month so far shows how hard it is just to pick one horse a day over a month.

 

That could be ultra cheap or ultra expensive!! Given how many issues he has had, you’d have to be a believer in divine intervention to put your hand in the pocket to buy him,

Hopefully he goes and makes a career and is sound. I fear that won’t happen.

 

It's difficult enough to pick a horse (and it win) once a month, let alone once a day over a month. To then restrict the race a day to one of the most difficult on the card makes it almost impossible (for me, remove the word "almost")

 

Do you need a “payday loan”? Mates rates

 

Don’t worry old boy, we don’t need to hit any of your pension pot here.

 

Ooohhh just spotted one in the next called RAIN IN SPAIN

 

1:45 Watchable @22/1

1pt EW - High draw and pace doesn’t look too onerous. Ping out make all job.

Horse was in good form before royal ascot and 5 lengths off winner in Wokingham isn’t a bad effort. Might seem exposed but the pace tomorrow looks less extreme than that day.

 

WEATHERBYS REGISTRATION COMMITTEE
Emergency Bulletin 13-07-2019

With immediate effect, the 9yo Watchable, trained by D O'Meara, will be re-registered as Laughable. This is at the unanimous request of members of the Not606 Horseracing Forum. Its official rating will not be affected, and losing bets on the horse during the week ended 13-07-2019 will stand (only one such bet has been traced).

 

Harsh on the old boy, he ran a very good race under the threads stone penalty.

 

Harsh on you both, really. I've said before what a useful thing you're doing with this thread, but - cheap shot or not - I couldn't resist it. As you say, he ran well (6th ? 7th ?) and by no means disgraced. I still think it's likely that watching summer jumping has dulled your critical faculties, in much the same way that drinking Yorkshire Tea will destroy the palate. Btw, that 5-lb hike next week looks a bit brutal, and I can see why you grasped the moment.

 

Funny you should mention the summer jumps, given tomorrow is a jumps only day. I am due to go to Sumptuous Stratford next weekend for the family fun day (believe it or not, I will be taking the family and going centre course enclosure - picnics etc). So hopefully the weather stays kind for next weekend too.

I have one for you whilst you are on, Sectional timings, what is the fuss and what is your view on them being introduced on the flat?

 

3:35 Ravenous 2pt at 12/1

This horse ran a really fair race last time out, now runs in a race where he can get an easy early position on a track that favours front runners. I think this will turn into a "sprint" for home and his flat speed will hold him in very good stead here. 12/1 is far bigger than I was expecting (single figures) so happy enough with that.

 

Careful - you could be setting yourself up to be on the receiving end of a 10,000-word essay. But I'll spare you that, because actually the answer's fairly simple. In principle, I'd welcome any addition to the databank which would give the punter more of an edge: in practice, with very few exceptions, I doubt if it has any useful application for racing in the UK.

And for the obvious reason, which is the sheer range and variety of courses. Left-hand/right-hand, flat/undulating/alpine-steep, sharpness/gentleness of bends, capacity to absorb rain, and so on for ever and ever. And that's before you factor in the growing and pernicious habit of moving the rails without telling anyone about it. As you know, I'm a punter rather than a 'lover of racing', and my overriding interest on any given day is whether there is a race from which I can make a profit. So I don't regard the variety of courses as one of the glories of British racing; I regard it, by and large, as a pain in the butt. From a punting perspective, I'd much rather live in Hong Kong. As things are, I bet almost entirely on flat AW tracks (i.e. not Lingfield) and pay much more attention to how I think the race will be run rather than Timeform or RPR figures.

As for the "fuss", my guess is that it's a little like the whip debate or the low-sun thing. Some journalists and pundits have decided to make a crusade of it, for reasons which I suspect have more to do with the filling of space than the advancement of knowledge.

Anyway, good luck today (out of curiosity, why do you never mention the course for your selections - is it just to annoy lazy people ?)

 

I think I'd stick with Adjutant in the race Nass. Johnson has ridden a number of them in the recent past and decided to stay with the favourite. The horse seems to like the track as he's won two of his 3 races there.

Adjutant 7-2.

 

Well that was massively annoying. Very well backed and halved in price. Travelled like a good thing and then didn't pick up. BHA report suggests that he had a problem in the straight so hopefully he is ok and back racing soon.

I make it -25 so this is going to be an amazing last week!!

Rainer, that answer about sectionals is how I feel about them in general, but I need to start taking a look at them especially if they become universal on flat racing tracks.

Also, I am terribly lazy when writing out the bets, hence the lack of track. It also amuses me that it irks you so!!

2.05 AYR

This race is really interesting, with the David O'Meara trained Tomily heading the field. Tomily is a tiny little thing who was claimed last time out, and now back in a handicap I think he will find this really tough. Especially with the two stalls next to him housing horses who will probably go prominently. It will be interesting to see if he can hold his own in handicap company for his new yard.

Yes You is a mare who hasn't got any form this year, as such she has dropped down to a mark that can be exploitable. I think she has a lot of questions to answer here and is overlooked.

Scuzeme has more going for him than the two aforementioned horses, he has been running consistently in defeat since his Thirsk win four runs ago. He is 6lbs higher than the mark he won from and he is one from sixteen on turf. I think he is probably good for a place here, but without a massive pace bias I think he is beatable by something that is relatively well handicapped.

Art Of Unity might well be that horse, having won nicely at Hamilton last time out and now carrying a penalty in a 0-75 race (0-70 lto). He had been running well in the races he faced in Ireland before that raid, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him continue in fine form here. The key question is can he resist a slightly better field off a higher mark? This is a career high mark, and I think that along with the better field can make it far tougher for him. As such I overlook him here, albeit reluctantly as I think he will be in the vanguard and should be in the finish.

That leads me to the selection, Amazing Grazing who ran a stormer two days ago and this race should suit him even better. He beat off the pace angles that day, and that left him exposed to closers, and this race should see him prominent but being able to track the pace. Clifford Lee takes over in the saddle and I think that he is a jockey upgrade here (interestingly its only his second ride for the yard). He has won from higher marks in the past and has dropped to this mark despite running consistently well.

Kolossus is out of form and looks like he hasn't trained on. I am surprised he is running at 6 furlongs again. Metal Exchange is obvious of interest given her unexposed profile, but for an inexperienced three year old filly this is going to be a tough ask. I think on handicap debut she is weighted to the ability she has shown and must be overlooked (albeit kept an eye on for the future) in this field.

Then the final horse Burmese Blazer is a modest sort who is better over five furlongs (could be said about selection too) and one who seems to need a pace collapse to get a good result. I think this is a race to watch him in with a view to the future.

SO -

I think Scuzeme and Art Of Unity both have really interesting profiles, but I think both can be exposed by something that runs to its handicap mark. Amazing Grazing did that on Saturday and can back that run up here.

2pt win @ 11/2

The comeback starts here

 

Yes, agreed. If sectional timings became universally available, and demonstrably reliable (in the sense that you knew you were genuinely comparing like with like), then it would be perverse to ignore them. Well done for bowing to popular demand and citing the 2.05 at Ayr,, and I'm sure the -25 is only money lent (yeah, right).

 

I think the sectionals are a useful tool on the AW and, despite the difficulties, I'm sure they can be of some use on the turf. If I had the time and knew how to use them, I'm sure the stride data is very useful too. Can't beat watching a race though and looking at the horse's conformation, scope and style of running. Unfortunately I no longer have the time nor inclination as I don't bet

 

Kolossus has been running at the wrong trip and back down a furlong is of interest off a mark that 10lb below his original rating.

 

In the 2.05 Ayr Tomily makes some appeal. It was an awful race he won last time but he did it well enough. What stands out to me is that, while he os not as good as he used to be, his handicap mark of 77 reflects that and he used to compete in better company than today's class 5 affair. He has not been with O'Meara long enough to expect a turn around in form just yet but he faces beatable opposition today and I feel he is capable of winning this at a decent enough price of 4/1.

Hopefully his win last time has restored some confidence and looking through the others I decided that Tomily was the one to be with today.

2.05 Ayr Tomily 4/1