In that 6.35 at Newcastle I’d side with Eeh Bah Gum. Somewhat relevant, what what, as to use that terrible forum cliché, ‘I’ve been told…’, I’ve been told that’s what they say in Northern parts. The old boy was a 5 time winner last term and arguably he ran his best ever race last time when beaten just 0.75 l in the ‘Dash’ at Epsom on Derby Day. Didn’t have the clearest of passages that day either. Runs off the same perch as at Epsom (88) and that looks exploitable here. Also, the current quote of 15/2 looks more than fair.
Today is an easy pick for me because I backed Copper Knight at Epsom in the Dash. He was impeded early in that race and shuffled back through the field before making good headway until he was denied a clear run. The jockey accepted that it was too late to do anything and he simply let the horse coast home. Copper Knight has a shade of class and having won the same race last year he makes plenty of appeal. Tarboosh had a terrific time last season and looks well weighted here but he simply isn't as good on the all-weather. His only success on the surface came in maiden company and that has to be a concern at only a point bigger than Copper Knight in the betting. Foolaad and Makanah are others in the mix, although the latter was raised 8 lbs for his latest win. Eh Bah Gum ran really well in the Dash but this is his first go at tonight's surface. I thought Copper Knight was unlucky last time and having no concerns regarding the track I expect him to be hard to beat this evening. 6.35 Newcastle Copper Knight 9/2 2pts win.
Backed Blue De Vega the last twice but reluctantly deserting him for stablemate ENCORE D'OR who is 3 from 5 on the surface, is in the right grade and has won off a similar mark before.
Looking through Tarboosh's form his best AW run is only 79 on RPR. He has only run 6 times on the all-weather though and much of his modest AW form was when he wasn't rated so highly on Turf. The one poor effort was at Kempton when he was running off an official rating of 92 but recorded only an effort of 71 on Racing Post figures when his best RPR at that time on all surfaces was 101. I would expect him to record a PB for AW surfaces on RPR today but prefer Copper Knight. Foolaad is right in the mix being better off with Copper Knight from the York race where they filled the top places. A bit longer in the tooth than his old sparring partner but should be in the frame and dangerous.
Tomorrow it’s an obvious one I’m afraid. 2:25 Newcastle Invincible Army 2pt win at 7/4 Just standout horse in the race and a remarkable price really. I was expecting closer to evens.
I read that the trainer was sending out Invincible Army and New Graduate out on quick recovery missions after Royal Ascot. Invincible Army opened at 9/4 for the Chipchase and I was a bit surprised it was still available in the morning. I reckon he's got Mr Lupton to worry about and has a few pounds in hand. His Ascot effort won't get the job done today but it was said that the ground ended up being too quick for Invincible Army in the Jubilee. Ironically it was far too soft for New Graduate and the jockey reported that he simply got lost in the mud. Either of Invincible Army's previous two runs this season should get the business done today and he has won on the AW before. New Graduate is 9/4 for the Listed race at Windsor and the somewhat inconsistent Matterhorn is pressing for favouritism with him. I decided to play the Tate runner because I saw the two of them in the same article and felt it was sensible to stay with both. 2.25 Newcastle Invincible Army 2pts win He should be tough to beat.
I make a point to rarely bet in sprints - they all seem to take it in turns to beat each other. At the prices I would probably chance it being Mr Lupton’s turn today, to follow up a decent performance at The Curragh recently
Finally!! will update the betting tomorrow night (i've been rather busy today and I am out most of tomorrow) I've just turned Glastonbury on to and it appears Janet Jackson is playing. Talk about running veterans in races beyond their current ability!! Tomorrow my bet heads up to Cartmel, to see if we can continue onwards. 2:35 - Manamite @ 14/1 1pt EW This is probably as good handicap hurdle you will get at this time of year (outside the handicap hurdle at Market Rasen) and for me it revolves around two horses. Magna Cartor is the first, who as is the norm, has improved for the good Dr, and looks to be one horse who is going to continue an upward curve. He will have to be doing just that here though, running from the bottom of the weights against much better horses, and I think this might be the race that finds him out in the short term. Manamite is another horse with good recent form in the book and I think he was really unsuited by how the race was run last time out at Kelso. He is a hold up horse who seems to need a good pace to run at, and that is what he should get in this race with Constancio in opposition. He looks well handicapped to me, and I think the market has him priced on the cap his jockey is wearing rather than what he has shown and the formbook.
Cartmel 14:35. Horses for courses me thinks. There seems to be some nice value about 3 horses who have proven ability at the track. Wells De Lune has been to the place 4 times for 4 wins. 14-1. Altruism likes the track as well. 8 starts for 5 wins and 1 place. 25-1. Zig Zag has been there just the once and was victorious. 40-1. There has to a fair chance a buck can be made here. Just one of them needs to run into a place.
Of all the British tracks it’s Cartmel that I can picture you at, eating a sticky toffee pudding and all that malarkey
Told you Cyc, your spiritual home is Cartmel please log in to view this image a 14/1 winner for you will pay for plenty of those puddings! Another disasterous day for my part of the thread with the selection pulling up with a health scare again, hopefully he is ok and can get back to winning ways shortly. So after the weekend its now 1 win from 7 -9.5 pts A solitary 7/4 winner. Hopefully next week will bring greater cheer. So here goes.
I hate doing this, but looking through the cards tomorrow I can only see horses in sellers. So I am going to go for one that I think should be odds on but isn't. 2:45 Mister Music @ 5/4 (BetVictor) - 2pt win This horse is a cut above this field, I have him about ten pounds clear and even the run last time would be good enough to beat this field. He goes well here, and he should get a fair enough pace to chase. I also like the fact that a new claimer is onboard tomorrow, as I think he has been getting used to Poppy and he is a horse that has been ridden plenty of times by claimers. I am sorry that it is a boring selection, but that is how it needs to be at times!
So to relieve the boredom of that selection, lets have a little game of get the treble of seller winners, and guess the prices if sold... 2:45 Mister Music - Not Sold 6:30 Hard Solution - 5k 6:45 Tomily - 15k
I would love to see the records of top rated horses in sellers and claimers. Seems to me that it should be loaded in their favour but it doesn’t often seem to work out. This one and the horse in the Windsor seller should be a very simple double to land. We shall see. Was expecting you to go for ICE AGE tomorrow
