Interesting comments on dates between races as I sometimes think the time between a debut and a follow-up is an important variable. A horse that has an impressive first start can perhaps be beaten on their second visit to the track and the lack of time between the 2 races can be blamed (possibly the implication here). Alternatively a horse can win its 2nd race then not run again (was that the problem with Calyx?). Hislop, in his biography of Brigadier Gerard, went a bit over the top on some things but his description of the Brigadier's training was informative. BG appeared in a listed race at Newbury over 5f this very week 49 years ago. He couldn't have been more impressive and Hislop explained that the 6f July Stakes was considered as his next target. It was 2 weeks later, but Hern and Hislop decided he'd instead go for a 'graduation' race at Salisbury just 8 days later. Giving weight away he won well but the observation was that he was unsettled in his box for a few days after the race. The thought was that he wasn't quite mature enough at this stage to take all this in his stride and that the race had come too soon. The decision was taken to give him a bigger break (6 weeks) before his next race, and a similar time before his last (and 4th) race of the season. He won all 4. It's informative to compare his campaign to those of his magnificent peers Mill Reef and My Swallow. Mill Reef made his debut in the middle of May and basically ran in each month to October (6 times, winning 5 and 2nd on his 3rd start). So running on average 4 weeks apart. My Swallow also started mid-May and ran 7 times, beating Mill Reef on his 4th start. at the end of the season he was rated the top 2yo, 1lb ahead of Mill Reef, who in turn was rated 1lb ahead of Brigadier Gerard. Compare that to the 1979 Guineas winner, Tap on Wood who ran 13 times as a 2yo. I think only the hardiest horse can be run like that. The key is in the skill of the trainer judging when they are ready to do themselves justice after their previous race. AOB seems an excellent judge and it could be that Lope Y Fernandez is work in progress.
I wouldnt be surprised if the Chesham form was reversed down the line, overall times are not the be and all end all in uk racing and if you look at the better horses who won the Chesham in recent years, Churchill, Thair, Maybe, were all run on soft. I thought the race lacked depth and the Coventry was the stronger race over all, albeit the winner was much the best on the day. Pinatubo is clearly a very early maturing type and hell face much stiffer tasks as the season progresses, I think given the hype, his likely odds will be worth taking on.
I was more of a mind that Lope Y Fernandez hadn't had enough time to improve much from his debut run. I feel a horse is unlikely to come on much in the space of a fortnight. He didn't have a hard race first time out and I am not suggesting he ran too soon after winning first time up. I read that Monarch Of Egypt is an intended runner in the Railway Stakes this Saturday. A week after Royal Ascot seems soon enough for a horse who allegedly missed the meeting due to a small setback. You would not think seven days would make much difference but we shall see if he runs and how he performs. Tomorrow night sees Etoile's form under scrutiny when Peace Charter lines up in the Group 2 Airlie Stud at the Curragh. She faces Albigna, who won on her debut from some well regarded sorts. Jessie Harrington's daughter of Zoffany only prevailed narrowly that day but is open to plenty of improvement and the stable had a promising winner in Windracer this evening. Ickworth adds interest to the race stepping up to 6F after failing to emerge from the stalls in the Queen Mary at Ascot. Peace Charter was a close second to Etoile last time after winning on debut and it will be interesting to see how this tricky looking race to be confident about actually pans out. Charlie Appleby's promising Kingman filly Summer Romance is due out again on Saturday. She won a 4 runner race on soft at Yarmouth very nicely and the runner up has won since. She's a half sister to Clive Brittain's useful filly Rizeena and she could clash in the Listed Newmarket race with Clive Cox's Star Alexander, who dotted up six lengths at Bath last time. I have had a bet on Summer Romance at 7/4 because I felt she has a lot more to give. She ran in a relaxed manner last time with her head down like an old chaser but when she was asked she quickened quite markedly and was well on top going through the line really strongly. I love an early small stakes punt ante-post and backed Summer Romance at 33/1 for the Guineas next year. I just reckon she could possibly go favourite for the race on Saturday. There are fillies in the market largely unproven and some who will not stay so it's a fun bet for me for some interest. She will need to win nicely but for a small bet it's a pure dreamer's investment. Life's too short to worry.
"Lack of time" might mean not enough time to rest up before another run, I just wanted to make the distinction that it was not enough time to make much physical improvement that was my concern with Lope Y Fernandez. The last two 2000 Guineas winners are interesting in that Saxon Warrior had a month between race 1 and race 2 and then a month between race 2 and race 3. Magna Grecia only had two weeks between race 1 and race 2 and then two weeks between race two and race 3. Both colts won the same race on their 3rd start (Racing Post Trophy/Futurity) but had very different gaps between their outings. The trend seems very much towards lighter campaigns for 2YO horses these days. Too Darn Hot made his debut at a mile last season but seemed to be fast tracked to a fairly ambitious 7F schedule. His Dewhurst win looks stronger now than it did earlier in the season, albeit that the horses franking the form went on to Derby glory at 12F and Commonwealth Cup success at 6F. In the Dewhurst Too Darn Hot looked outpaced at one stage but stayed on effectively to win well in the end. Was it a tough race on the horse though? He was rated an eye-watering 126 for that win but in retrospect you would probably say he beat a horse who wanted further in Anthony Van Dyck and one who is a sprinter in Advertise. Too Darn Hot was in limbo rated 126 because there is a ceiling on how high any horse can ever reach. His official rating was taken down to 120 after the Irish Guineas and has been further reduced to 115 after the St James Palace. The question would be whether they sacrificed his 3YO career by pursuing the very top races as a 2YO?
Summer Romance could not have been more impressive. She won six lengths in ready style and was cut into favourite for the 1000 Guineas at a best price of 14/1 now. Albigna was briefly favourite for the Guineas after scrambling home last night but the Godolphin filly seems to have more gears and she doesn't look like a sprinter to me. Charlie Appleby indicated that 7F would be on the cards next time and the Sweet Solera was mooted as a possible target. I hope that they only give her a couple more runs this season and don't tit about going to Meydan in February for a race. Keep it simple and focus long term. So often Sheikh Mohammed seems like the kid in the street with the fancy Christmas present who can't stop showing it off and then wonders why it is knackered on Boxing Day.
As I said last year, Too Darn Hot didn't have a great front extension which ruled him out of being a Derby horse. I think they made the most of him as a 2yo knowing he would be overtaken at 3. I was surprised, and somewhat disappointed, by the high rating and praise from Timeform during his 2yo career. I would have thought they could have spotted something so obvious from one race. Maybe their understanding of conformation isn't as good as it used to be. Horses with great potential and who, at 2, have not grown into their frame should be lightly campaigned with their 3yo and 4yo career in mind. Glad to see it
Not sure who people think is the best 2yo seen out so far, but the three times winner Siskin must be near the top of the pile. He won the Railway Stakes on Saturday beating Coolmore's Monarch of Egypt. This Juddmonte colt is from the family I always refer to as the El Gran Senor family, but is also the family of Xaar, Redoutes Choice and Bated Breath as well as many others. Shown as US bred, he is by the Juddmonte US sire First Defence who has now been sold. While coming from the mainly US bred Best in Show line the dam and granddam of Siskin are GB bred mares. The first dam being Bird Flown (by Oasis Dream) who raced in France and the granddam Silver Star (by Zafonic) also ran in France getting some black type. One would think Siskin should get a mile, so a 7f race may be next on the menu. Trainer Ger Lyons said about a month ago he was taking it easier with his 2yos this season as many needed 7-8f to be seen at their best. Yet he's run this onr 3 times by the end of June.
Siskin is officially rated 110 now and he is the Racing Post's top rated 2YO on 115. Timeform have him on 111p so there is a general consensus that he leads the way so far or is very tight on the heels of the top rated. Plenty of excitement was generated and speculation regarding the 2000 Guineas was made in the aftermath of his latest win. The Racing Post have Siskin rated 7lbs ahead of Pinatubo, while Timeform have Pinatubo 1 lb ahead on 112. I think it's tight between the two of them myself and on official ratings they are tied on 110. The Racing Post advantage of 7 lbs in Siskin's favour looks a bit dubious to me. Monarch Of Egypt had met with a setback that caused him to miss Royal Ascot and the betting for the Railway Stakes suggested that the O'Brien colt was unlikely to be winning on his return to the track. Monarch Of Egypt had his rating raised in defeat but in the circumstances it seems hard to measure how strong either colt might actually have been in the Railway Stakes. Looking to the Marble Hill for clues about Siskin we see that runner-up King Neptune was beaten five lengths in 6th place in the Norfolk, the 3rd was beaten seven lengths in 5th behind Pinatubo in the Chesham, 4th home was well down the field, beaten more than nine lengths in the Albany, while the 5th home was beaten in a maiden before landing a tight Windsor Castle at the Royal meeting. Overall that Marble Hill is a little disappointing and looking at the Railway Stakes itself Fort Myers went off joint second favourite with Monarch Of Egypt and was supposed to be the form gauge in the race but he took all his time to hold off a 66/1 shot rated 22 lbs lower than him by a head for 3rd place. It is a pet hate I have that assessors give the benefit of the doubt that one horse has run to something like his form, rather than ponder that it ran below form. Fort Myers was given as running 5 lbs below his previous best, while the 4th home was bumped up a full stone, from 85 to 99 on RPR. Real Force was also raised a stone on official ratings, from 83 to 97. Doesn't it concern people that a horse who ran 80, 85, 81 for its first three races then magically comes up with a 99 effort on start number four? Siskin is clearly talented and has done nothing at all wrong so far. He's an exciting prospect but he has not been missed by either the assessors or the bookmakers. He's top/near top of the main rating trees and joint favourite for next year's 2000 Guineas. I am looking longer term and the Railway Stakes has not been a good race for winners going on to win the 2000 Guineas the next year. I would hope to see Siskin at 7F next time and not many more runs after that if he is going to be a classic horse next season. I am pleased to see Ger Lyons grabbing the headlines for a change instead of the O'Brien winner factory. The next couple of months should see some good 2YOs making their debuts and no doubt some of them will arrive with great reputations. Siskin sets a good standard but I think it is quite tight for now at the top.
A few good looking 2YO races this week. One of the most interesting is Charlie Appleby's AL SUHAIL who is entered and jocked up for a maiden race over 7F at Newmarket on Friday. Al Suhail is by Dubawi out of Shirocco Star, making him a half brother to Telecaster. He holds a group 1 entry in the National Stakes in September and is presumably well regarded. The race is full of well bred newcomers from top stables and TSAR is a Kingman colt from the Gosden stable who are batting at an incredible 40% at the moment. At Leopardstown on Thursday there is a 7F maiden with plenty of well bred talent. Aidan O'Brien has several entered of course and the ones I have been waiting to see are HEAVEN OF HEAVENS, SALSA and SNOW. Heaven Of Heavens is by Galileo and is a full sister to Magical and Rhododendron. She is entered in the Moyglare and is obviously of interest on breeding alone. Snow is a full sister to Kew Gardens and also holds a Moyglare entry but you might reason that she will need a mile this year. Salsa is a full sister to Hydrangea and Hermosa and with Hermosa being a double Guineas winner you could argue she may have more speed than the other two. Also Moyglare entered, she sits as favourite for the Oaks in the early market at 33/1. You would think it unlikely all three will clash at this stage of their development and perhaps none of them will run on Thursday but they will be interesting when they do appear. The one that takes my eye for Thursday is Jessie Harrington's ALPINE STAR. By Sea The Moon out of Alpha Lupi, the filly is a half sister to the brilliant Alpha Centauri who was also trained by Harrington. The trainer has another filly in Thursday's race but Alpine Star holds a Moyglare entry, while the other filly does not. Jessie Harrington has already had some nice 2YO's this season and has the very promising Albigna near the head of the 1000 Guineas betting. Perhaps more likely to be a runner that some of Aidan's fillies I will be interested to see how she performs.
Tsar is another Juddmonte horse, another Kingman but a horse from a family that hasn't shone in the stud (unless I have missed something) for some time. Tsar's 3rd dam is Navajo Princess who, those breeding fans among you will know, is the dam of the great Dancing Brave. The 2nd dam is by Sadler's Wells and Tsar's dam is by King's Best, so bred in the purple, as they say. Usually a good horse wins this race: used to be called something like the Strutt and Parker Stakes. So Tsar is starting in a tough race and it's noticeable that many top trainers have entries and many already have jockeys declared. Dettori is already declared for Tsar even though Gosden has 2 entered. Maybe this is the time for the Dancing Brave family to reassert.
On Saturday the first at Newmarket is a 7f Fillies maiden. A lot of the best stables seem to be targetting it, especially AOB, but I am hoping we'll see a Royal winner. Haggas runs a filly called Award Scheme who is by Siyouni out of a Dansili mare called Queen's Prize who ran very few times and won a 7f AW maiden. However her dam (Daring Aim by Daylami) has produced a number of reasonable animals and is a half-sister to an Oaks 2nd. We'll see if this is one of Maureen's nice 2yos. One of the Queen's best ever horses made its debut at this meeting, finishing a close 2nd to the next year's Oaks winner. Her name was Highclere. UPDATE: With Doyle on Appleby's Light Blush (by Kodiac) Haggas calls up super-sub Danny Tudhope. Gosden runs another Royal filly called Likeness (a Darley bred Sharmadal filly) and Dettori is already down as her jockey. 2nd Update: Likeness withdrawn and Dettori switches to Gosden's other runner. Looks as if Moore will ride Ennistymon for AOB, who is likely to be favourite.
Just a few words on Light Blush, who as I said is by Kodiac. She is out of a mare by Pivotal, who is out of a mare by Lammtarra, who is out of a mare by Bellypha and happens to be a daughter of Meon Valley Stud foundation mare Reprocolor. Few other breeders mix up their sires like they do. Few other breeders are as consistently successful. This is their most successful family and the current flag bearer is Telecaster. It is the family of Opera House, Colorspin, Kayf Tara, Izzi Top and many others.
Moore is riding Kipling (no doubt an exceedingly good Galileo colt and brother to Irish Oaks winner Seventh Heaven) for AOB so Stoute has engaged Oisin Murphy to ride the Queen's debutant First Receiver in the Friday Newmarket race highlighted by Grendel: worth noting I should think. With Al Suhail and Tsar standing their ground this looks a hot Newmarket maiden.
Watched the race back again and can't fathom how Al Suhail got beaten. He came there absolutely swinging when the Hannon colt was already under heavy pressure and looked to have put the race to bed but Al Madhar kept on well for pressure and just edged ahead by a neck in the closing stages. Hannon's colt won the battle today but the Godolphin horse is the one for the future I feel. He looks ready made to win next time. Tsar kept on well from the rear, as did the Queen's runner and they are two who should have no problems winning races. Kipling was prominent but run out of it in the closing stages finishing 5th. Time may tell this was a good maiden but he was a silly price for a horse beaten easily by stablemate Lope Y Fernandez, who was himself comfortably dismissed by Pinatubo in the Chesham. It's all about Al Suhail for me though. I thought he travelled like a good horse today and he seems set for a good season going forward. Alpine Star ran a decent race in 3rd behind the more experiences Love from the O'Brien stable. She was very weak in the betting beforehand and she does not have the presence that half-sister Alpha Centauri possessed. A bit green and not a bad start for Alpine Star but the Moyglare entry looks fanciful for now. The twice raced favourite Love made heavy weather of beating Ger Lyons' Zoffany newcomer Soul Search and the latter filly looks sure to win a maiden on this showing. Al Suhail's race replay:- http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/3/96108/ The two to note for me are Al Suhail, who looks a sort sure to progress and Tsar, who fell out of the stalls on the extreme right and then ended up on totally the opposite side. As he made his challenge though, Al Suhail was travelling much the better and must have traded at startling short odds in running but somehow the Hannon colt got there.
Should I be disappointed with Daahyeh’s effort in the Duchess Of Cambridge or just impressed with the winner Raffle Prize? Clearly Raffle Prize has improved again following the Queen Mary to come on and win another Group 2 with a penalty. Daahyeh travelled quite well through the race but did not immediately respond when asked for her effort and was then never going to catch the Johnston filly, which had quickened clear from the front. It may be that these two turn out to be a good pair of fillies. If the plan with the winner is the Prix Morny to take on the colts (as the trainer opined on Racing TV), it is reasonable to expect that the runner-up will head to York for the Lowther to avoid a rematch.
Eshaasy caught my eye in that maiden, half brother to Galileo Gold, thought he was very green and ran well considering, id expect him to take a big step forward and will be having a decent bet on him next time.
There was a little trio of horses there that finished together and all looked like they would improve for the run. DULAS, ESHAASY and TAMMANI. It will be interesting to see how the form of the race pans out.
