Word has got out that I selected it . Didn't see any 25/1 last night though. I was complaining about the 8/1 showing in the RP
Subliminal is now 3-1 and as short as 5-2 in places. Street Poet at 8-1 seems a pretty fair place bet. Paddy now has Grey Destiny at 25-1.
In fact I’m hearing that the 4/11 could go to 1/3 very soon give the weight of support at the former price. One further point re the jockeys at Royal Ascot I found it astounding that after ‘day 4’ 2 jockeys (the Creature and the legendary Ryan) had won 50% of the races between them – 12/24. Might be wrong but certainly in my lifetime I’ve never known 2 jockeys dominate on the level like that at a major meet. Almost like, earlier in the decade, in the NH sphere, when the Ruby boy and the Geraghty lad used to win practically every race (non-Corinthian that is) at the ‘Cheltenham Festival’.
Not to mention the punt landed on Crystal Ocean, its a ridiculous comment. Many springers and gambles are seen and landed at every top meeting. My focus on the race would be the bottom four in the handicap with the selection being Arlecchino's Leap who has a bit of course form.
You cannot seriously compare Crystal Ocean with a three times raced maiden being punted. Crystal Ocean is a 125 rated horse who has run well in Group 1 races and won plenty of lower level group races. The context and circumstances are all important. Sea Of Class was weak in the betting because of the absence and more because the ground was against her and her participation was in doubt. It's easy to see why Crystal Ocean would be considered a better value option in the particular circumstances. A horse whose form reads 090 and has ratings of 32, 63, 47 on RPR figures is altogether different as a vehicle for financial support. You need to examine your own input before declaring other people's contributions as ridiculous. You are nothing more than a tedious troll.
If indeed I were a tedious troll then I would be on here pointing out that every single one of your ante post bets this season seem to have gone badly awry. Ascot was an absolute graveyard for you! You are a beautiful writer and a strong student of group racing but sadly you are pretty inadequate when it comes to tipping winners. Thousands of words for zero return. You are also your own biggest fan and cannot begin to contemplate that someone may not agree and adhere to your view. You say you were a bookmaker, thats laughable, if you ever were you would understand more about the markets....your friend Boris can help you with this although I doubt you have the capacity to listen!
Tomorrows race is the 3:45 at Brighton, an amateur jockeys handicap over almost 1m 4f, and one that has a rich heritage of throwing up Roy Rocket as the winner. This Brighton legend gets another go at the race tomorrow and he is likely to get the race run to suit again, with a few of these liking to go off from the front. I often find that amateur jockey races are run in one of two ways, falsely or really falsely. Falsely is when there are more than one pace angles and they often take each other on, and really falsely are when you have only one pace angle who gets an easy lead. This race over the last four years has shown both of these in action with Tempuran getting loose on the lead in the race two years ago, with overly eager runnings of the race being either side, and both being won by Roy Rocket. This year we have Orabas (front running winner for Simon Walker in March), Rose Crown, Ezanak, Los Cerritos all having form from the front or at least racing prominently, which should set this up for something coming off the pace, with Roy Rocket, Happy Ending and Thunderhooves all likely to be nearer last than first in the early stages of the race. So, Roy Rocket, an age old question, one which gets asked of our Spanish correspondent every time he goes out for a round of golf.... HAS AGE CAUGHT UP WITH HIM? Last year he came into this race on the back of three good course performances, and this year he comes in off the back of four woeful course performances. The form in the book suggests he shouldn't get a look in and I tend to agree with the formbook here. He is now 9 years of age, and at 12/1 he looks a woeful price for the form he has shown. A horse priced up on past glories. So that leaves me to pick up on Happy Ending, who was given a horrendous ride last time out by Rhian Ingram and for once in an amateur jockeys race you probably could put a jockey uplift symbol next to the name of Mathew Fielding in the racecard!! She now returns to the scene of her only win and I think she will make it a second win tomorrow. If you get chance to watch the run of Happy Ending at Bath it is well worth doing so, popped out of the stalls well, raced in prominent position (I don't think that was supposed to happen). Restrained and let drift to rear. Push off the bend and stay on very well to snatch third at the post. So 2pt win at 9/2 BOG
You can't do a lot when horses get injured. I had a decent Ascot, a few winners, some places and a couple of unlucky/close ones who got poorish rides. I nominated several bad value bets, including Ten Sovereigns and watched my 2000 Guineas pick Advertise answer his and my critics with a good display in the Commonwealth Cup. This thread is about one subject and every person's input should be respected in what is an unproven and largely experimental topic. There is no need to be stating that someone's opinion is ridiculous. I reckon your comment that many springers and gambles are seen and landed at every top meeting is incorrect. It's just a throwaway statement with no parameters and no evidence. I would far rather trust a better quality contest than a low level event. That is my right as a punter. There are no rights or wrongs in such a choice, it is simply the preference of the individual and certainly not ridiculous. From Nass's point of view I am wondering how concerned he would be in making a selection that later hit 25/1? The money keeps coming for Bated Beauty and while Billy Roberts has now been supported in, earlier positive Arlecchinos Leap is now a big negative. That all adds up to a crazy and confused market for me and I stand by that sentiment.
Alas he didn’t run too badly but the pace held up (although I think from one viewing that Celtic Artisan was unlucky from his draw). Not the start I’d wanted but at long prices that’s the likely result! Well done those who went with the pace and Street Poet.
And to answer Grendel, if I back a horse that drifts in a race like that it can be alarming but it depends on the horse and it’s profile. If it comes from a punting yard then I’d be massively concerned, but if it came from a more conservative yard I’d be less worried. Great call btw and send my 5% race finding fee onwards
Strewth Nass. That's the sort of race I spend about 0.5 secs on before moving to the next race. I wouldn't know where to start
love this thread nass , love trying to unravel low grade handicaps , i know the purists show disdain for such things , but every race has a winner , for a gambler ,it matters not whether it’s a brighton or ascot , it pays the same ! For this race , we really are looking for small margins , trainer form , jockey competency, course form and ability , all seem to have various shortcomings with one or more of those factors , but on the horses for courses and a quirky venue like brighton , it has to be old boy Roy Rocket , despite the trainers lack of winners recently, the horse might enjoy the way the race is run , and the jockey is certainly familiar with the horse and track , good luck !!
Since everybody's input is to be respected I will offer the fav in the Brighton race today. Amateurs used to be s walker or s Brotherton now i don't even look at names much less form.
