im going to cheltenham this year for last 2 days of festival and cant wait , ive had a dabble ante post as usual on the big races my selections are , champion hurdle - hurricane fly gold cup - imperial commander queen mother - master minded arkle - finians rainbow supreme novices - Zaidpour supreme novice - Time For Rupert world hurdle - Grands Crus no major bets yet until closer to the time , whats your selections and does anything stand out ?
Here are my thoughts on the Festival so far: Gold Cup: I have been laying Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander for regular small stakes since the last Festival. The stats strongly suggest that the winner is usually younger than 10 years old. All three of these fail on that stat. Kauto and Denman also have to contend with the fact that only one horse has regained the GC after losing it and that was Kauto himself. Younger horses like Pandorama, Long Run and Diamond Harry look the most likely contenders. The race has thrown up shock winners in the past and Midnight Chase might prove value if he lines up. Selection: Long Run Danger: Pandorama Outsider: Midnight Chase Lay: Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander Champion Hurdle: This one of the best races at this year's Festival. The race has a habit of throwing up repeat winners and it will be no surprise if Binocular follows up last year's win. The one horse I am particularly opposed to is Menorah as he has to overcome one of the worst stats at the Festival which is that winning the CH in the following season after winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle has proved nigh on impossible. Hurricane Run is a fascinating contender as he has won hatfuls of races yet has failed to ever run at the Festival due to injuries. Overall, expecting a horse that has never even run at the track to turn up and beat the best hurdlers around has to be considered unlikely. He has a tremendous engine and might do it although I could not consider risking money on him. Peddlers Cross is unbeaten and won at the Festival last year which is a good sign. He rates the danger. Selection: Binocular Danger: Peddlers Cross Outsider: Overturn on fast going Lay: Menorah Queen Mother Chase: Much will depend on the state of the going because on soft going Master Minded will be very hard to beat if at his best. However at 9/4 he represents poor value in my opinion. Reigning champ Big Zeb must be feared but for a shock winner I will go for Nicholls much improved Woolcombe Folly who has improved stones this season. Selection: Woolcombe Folly Danger: Master Minded Outsider: Forpadydeplasterer The Arkle Chase: The first thing to note in this race as that horses aged 9 and older have an abysmal record and should be dismissed out of hand. Secondly, 90% of all the winners had never finished out of the first two placings in all completed chase starts so any horse that has been well beaten when completing should be crossed off your list. There are only two entries aged 9 or older this year so that does not help much. The other key factor is nearly all the winners had shown excellent hurdles form and it appears that an official rating of at least 143 over hurdles is required. The shortlist is quite long at this stage:- Finians Rainbow: Rated 142 over hurdles, top yard, unbeaten over fences (faced only 4 rivals in 2 races). Down the field in the RSA Hurdle in 2010 Captain Chris: Rated 146 over hurdles, been 2nd both starts over fences, seems going dependent (wants good) Mamlook: Rated 143 hurdles, unbeaten in one run over fences in a poor race, big outsider Medermit: Rated 155 over hurdles, been first or second on all completed chases (refused once), placed 2nd in Supreme novices 2 years ago, very strong contender indeed Noble Prince: 148 hurdles, 3 chase starts always in first 2, lively outsider Realt Dubh: 146 hurdles, 6 chase starts, always 1st two when completing (5 from 6) At this stage the most likely winner appears to be Medermit although he is not a certain runner so no ante post can be considered RSA Chase: Time For Rupert looks outstanding in this race but this event is well known for throwing up a surprise or two. In contrast, highly rated hurdlers do not have a great record. Selection: Time for Rupert Ryan Air Chase: This looks a match between Poquelin and Albertas Run Selection: Poquelin World Hurdle: This also looks a match between 2 time champ Big Bucks and newcomer Grands Crus. Hard to call I will update the stats and other info nearer the time
Merdermit runs at Sandown on Saturday and if he wins well he must shorten for the Arkle. The trainer has two races in mind for the Festival and until he declares which he prefers I can't get involved. Double edged sword innit? I want him to win well on Saturday to increase confidence but I also want the price. If you are prepared to risk losing a bit ante post then the 12/1 generally for the Arkle is a huge price. He will certainly be much shorter if he lines up in March
Hurricane Fly will win Champion Hurdle Kauto Star will win Gold Cup Big Bucks will win World Hurdle Master Minded will win the Queen Mother Nearer the time i'll fill in the other races.
We should have a comp over the Festival and make our selections each day with a points system. Someone should contact betfair who sponsor a few forums ÃÆââ¬Å¡Ãâã100 prize for comps and with the numbers on here I think they'd easily sponsor it.
at least two of those will get beat and if Kauto wins well I will give up. 11 years olds do not win the GC.
ill back that , cant possibly see how kauto star can win this race or indeed any other of this class , great horse but had its day
