Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2011

[Tamerlo]

I am opening a debate on this year’s forthcoming Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe.
Would members please pass all their comments on the main contenders- and any others they feel have a live or outside chance.
Here’s my feelings on the race and brief comments on the fancied horses:

Likewise last year, I do not feel there is great quality in depth to the current generation of Classic middle-distance three year olds.
Nevertheless, I think this year’s race will be ultra-competitive with no outstanding favourite.

Workforce.
I feel he is probably the ‘yardstick’ by which to try and assess the form.
Apart from last year’s defeat by Harbinger in the King George, he has never run a bad race- and is very lightly raced overall.
His Eclipse running gives him much the same chance as his conqueror, So You Think, but it is his running in this season’s King George against Nathaniel which raises the most questions.
Would he have seriously threatened the winner if he had run straight and true, and did the relatively slow early pace count against him?

So You Think.
I feel this top class performer is very consistent and highly durable. However, I am reluctant to grant him ‘superstar status’ based on his races against Rewilding and Snow Fairy. Also, there must be serious doubts about his participation, given his alternative target of the Champion Stakes.
Should he go to post at Longchamp, his capacity to lay up with the leaders will assist him on the turning track.

Sarafina.
She was my fancy for last year’s race and certainly did not have the best of luck when it mattered.
It is to be applauded that she has been kept in training for another attempt, and it is almost certain she will be in contention.
Yet can she reverse the form with another four year old, Workforce, who has likewise been kept in training and is one of the few Arc winners to try again the following year?
She will undoubtedly require luck in running and the size of the field may be crucial to her chances.

Nakayama Festa.
Not many people will fancy this horse, but the Japanese have had several good tries at winning the race- and he only lost by a head last year. Undoubtedly an outside chance and fair value at 33/1.

Galikova.
This late foal showed in her recent trial that she stays the distance- and is obviously improving. Her form may not read quite good enough, but it is impossible to discount her in a race where three year old fillies have done well in the past.
Difficult to weigh up.

Reliable Man.
Many will discount him after his ordinary performance against Meandre in the Grand Prix De Paris, but he emphatically reversed that form in last Sunday’s Prix Niel.
This French Derby winner has only lost the one race, but are the French three year old colts good enough?

Nathaniel.
Nathaniel’s defeat by Treasure Beach at Chester did not augur well for an Arc victory.
However, his impressive win in the King Edward at Royal Ascot- followed by a highly enterprising and positive ride when defeating Workforce in the King George- speaks volumes for his improvement.
The big question is....would he have won if Workforce had run straight and true?
My view is that he quickened really well and that Workforce would have had all on getting to him.
I don’t think the course in Paris will hold any fears for him, and he could be ridden close to the leaders.
His stable is in tremendous form and, if his improvement has continued, I see him as the likely winner.
His current 7/1 is a very fair price, but he will probably be longer odds on the Pari Mutuel on the day.

What do other members think?

 

[Cyclonic]

You're up early mate.

 

[Tamerlo]

Good morning, Cyclonic. Yeah, I wake up early- ever since I retired. Maybe it's the sign of a misspent old age- as well as a misspent youth!
Or maybe I feel most expressive early morning- as opposed to flippant and idiotic in the evenings; that's why I post my rantings on here!

 

[Cyclonic]

Gotta do a runner as the good lady needs to be down by the sea. Training day for Dragon boats. Will update thinking on the Arc later. Free thinking is good. It inspires wit. later mate.

 

[Tamerlo]

See ya, Cyclonic. Watch the box jellyfish- beautiful but deadly (like some women I've met).

 

[OddDog]

I must say I'm struggling to get excited by the old Prix this year, something which often befalls me in those years where we don't have an obvious 3YO champ over 12F. On paper it looks like one for the older horses and I would agree that Nathaniel looks the value pick at the moment. The one factor I always find difficult to factor into the race is the French style of race-riding and the unique challenges that Longchamp presents. How much of a "home advantage" really exists?

I am however particularly intrigued by how the British Champions Day fares against the Longchamp spectacle in terms of attracting top horses. As time goes by I am becoming more and more convinced by the idea and it is marvellous that Frankel will be headlining at Ascot. Should So You Think's connections choose Ascot over Longchamp that will also provide a thrilling support act (although many will say Ballydoyle are taking the soft option).

 

[GDC]

Morning Tam: I have supported Nathaniel EW at 40s and 33s so will be happy if i get a run for my money.

Cometh the day i fully intend to stick with Workforce who i think will come back to his best

 

[QuarterMoonII]

I was thinking about starting a thread for each of the big races on Arc Sunday as all of the current entries are available online at France Galop’s website; however, as there are a couple of declaration dates to go and the possibility of supplementary entries, it might be best if I just post a link and some instructions so that interested parties can go and look for themselves.

So go to this link: France Galop Race Calendar.

In the “Date” field, enter “02/10/2011” (or “01/10/2011” if you want Saturday as well). You can click the calendar icon next to the “Date” field and select “Octobre” and the day with the same result.

They have changed this site recently so that it automatically searches so you should see a list of fixtures starting on the date that you entered. Under the “Race by race” column, click on the LONGCHAMP link, which will take you to that day’s card. Then you can click on the link for the race that you are interested in seeing. Each race entries page has a “Previous race” and “Next race” button to navigate the card and there is also a meeting program link at the top that will show a list of all the races. Only the Group races currently have entries listed.

There are currently 117 original entries in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the next forfeit stage being Tuesday 27 September.

 

[Cyclonic]

Back from the sea and didn't see a box jellyfish anywhere, maybe because I live too far to the South. The Dragon boat training was wonderful. All them bronzed sheilas belting up and down the waterway did my manliness proud. Now onto more mundane things.

The Arc. Well where to begin. It's always best to wear a visor when arc welding, the flash can be a bastard. Heaven forbid if you get a piece of metal in the eye ... painful as all f**k!

 

[Tamerlo]

QuarterMoon, good afternoon!
Please do your thread for all the big races on Arc Sunday, if you wish- it will not clash with this preliminary Article.
I was just looking at the Arc betting and posted the thread to see what members thought of the race and its main protagonists.
Thanks for your info. re France Galop.

 

[Tamerlo]

Cyclonic, I don't know about the flash from arc welding. It seems to me you were wanting to flash something else on the beach- or go muff diving in your briny surf!

 

[Cyclonic]

Workforce: Quite a number of people are yet to be convinced of this horse's abilities. Great efforts have been made in some quarters, to make light of his slashing Derby win, but to score in such emphatic circumstances, and in such a brilliant time, has to attest to the quality of the animal. Again, some have tried to lessen the value of Workforce's Arc victory, by saying that he got the run of the race, and was ridden to perfection. The fact that these two statements are true, should not cheapen the manner in which he made that Arc field look like G2 horses. The merit of his gallant second behind So You Think over 10f is open to question. Personally, I thought the run heroic. I think it's not unreasonable to suggest, that I'd probably have a better understanding of So You Think' depth, that most of the good people in the UK. Not withstanding that I run the risk of being overly biased. I firmly believe that So You Think would win the Arc if his connections decided to run the horse. But of course, it probably won't happen. So if I'm of the opinion that the Southern horse is good enough to win the big race, then Workforce comes into the race with a huge shout. So You Think sat on Workforce, who was asked, rather foolishly, I might add, to break So You Think's heart, by trying to beat him down with a very powerful kick from a long way out. We all know that So You Think drafted the Derby/Arc winner, then peeled off his heels when the hard yards had been done, and changed gear. These are two serious horses. If Coolmore squib out and take the easy option, then Workforce will take a power of beating in France.

I know nothing of the history of the great race, so it becomes a bit hard commenting on the chances of mares. Many moons ago, a wise man told me that more often than not, a good colt will beat a good filly. (As we saw in the St Leger.) There are of course exceptions to the rule, but as it's one I hold most dear, I wouldn't risk my hard earned on the fairer sex. As for the three year olds, they seem to have a fairly good record this year, in Group racing. I'm a firm believer in home ground advantage, so if a youngster is to prevail, I'd suggest looking at the local lads. I also think that the Asian can be discounted this year. We've had our fair share of them in Australia. They seem to fire the first time up, but seldom repeat the run.

Cyclonic the Mystic has spoken.

 

[QuarterMoonII]

Looking at the seven contenders that Tamerlo originally mentioned:

Workforce – I have come to the conclusion that he may be a horse that is best fresh, so not having had a prep-race for the Arc (same as last year) is probably a positive. Will Ryan Moore be back in time to take the ride though?

So You Think – there seems to be every indication that he will not run. With that in mind, anybody looking for an ante post bet on the other fancied horses should get on now because the prices will all contract when he defects.

Sarafina – I am totally biased here as I have backed her ante post. She has been trained for the race and hopefully she gets better luck in running than last year, although Lemaire did manage to get boxed in when there were just four runners on Sunday!

Nakayama Festa – completes the repeat line-up of last year’s first three but we have no way of knowing how much he will come on for Sunday’s race and we know that his conqueror Sarafina was less than 100% according to her trainer.

Galikova – could well be the best chance for the ‘home’ three-year-olds. She won a slowly-run Vermeille and only Zarkava has completed the double in recent years but I am sure they will let her take her chance.

Reliable Man – reversed previous form with Meandre in the Prix Niel but the trainer’s post-race comments were not as ebullient as they were about Sarafina, suggesting that he is not at the front of the Royer-Dupre pecking order.

Nathaniel – will go to Paris after a long summer break and on the bare form appears to be the best three-year-old middle distance colt in Europe. I don’t think that fitness will be an issue but the main concern would be his lack of experience in numerically large fields. The tactics that are chosen on the day could be a big factor in his chances.


Just a mention for something that all punters should be aware of when it comes to betting in France: on the PMU, horses in the same ownership are coupled in the betting. This means that if any of them wins, you are on the winner. If you want to be on just one named horse, put your bet on with a British bookie. Where an owner has more than one runner, the PMU return will be less than the odds being offered on each individual runner by our bookies, but you numerically have more chances to win.

 

[NassauBoard]

I will give rationale later but the 11/2 on Workforce looks very big. I am very close to backing him.

 

[QuarterMoonII]

Cyc, you should have shoved Mrs Cyc in with the boxed jellyfish and intrigued the bronzed Sheilas with your Arc welding skills.

There is a Wikipedia entry for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe here if you want to know a little about the race’s history plus a list of all previous 89 winners. The part about the sponsorship needs updating as QREC have extended their sponsorship until 2022. Their official Arc site is here.

A brief answer to a couple of the questions you raised:

Since 2000, eight of the winners have been three-year-olds, with Zarkava the only member of the fairer sex. Fifteen of the last twenty winners were three-year-olds and Urban Sea – dam of Sea The Stars – was the only other female to win in that time.

You won’t be surprised to see that the French dominate the race historically with 64 wins.

It is only in the last few years that the Japanese have sent runners over to France. Their initial attempt was with Deep Impact, who was subsequently disqualified from third place. In the last two years they have sent a couple of horses, obviously attracted by the large prize money and possibly also by the perceived weakness of European middle distance horses since Sea The Stars retired.

 

[TopClass]

AOB frustrates me. He bigs up So You Think as a wonder horse but it looks more and more likely that he won't be given a chance in Europe's biggest flat race. Go and have a crack at being the best for goodness sake. He was third in the hottest 2m handicap around so the idea that he wouldn't get a mile and a half is bloody nonsense. I for one think he'd probably be better in fact.

I am yet to rule St Nicholas Abbey out of the equation as he might end up getting a race run to suit (if they send him) so he rates as a lively outsider.

Interestingly, here is a post of mine from 606 Refugees on 17th June just before Nathaniel ran for the first time at Ascot:

"3.05 NATHANIEL 11/4- Liked this horse from day one and it loves every inch of this trip. Connections have waited for soft ground and given the way Treasure Beach advertises his form, the price looks very, very fair. I will probably sound like a crackhead but I would not mind an ante-post quote for an e/w price in the Arc. (I will accept all abuse tomorrow evening after he finishes stone last) "


Which was followed swiftly with a response from Famouswise:

"TopClass

If Nathaniel gets placed in the ARC i will meet you and give you 50 pounds of my own money

I am very serious and genuine im a man of my word "

-Looks much more a solid bet now doesn't it!

 

[SwanHills]

Tamerlo/QuarterMoonII: Thanks for very useful comments on the more fancied horses. The going is so important that I think I'll wait a bit till I am sure as to what the ground will be like. Although certainly not in recent years, there's always this possibility in France that the ground will be bog-like, and then a full re-think would be necessary? Certainly going to have a good bet though, although not ante-post, for sure.

 

[Reebok]

It's Workforce for me

I'll give you the rationale later - when Nass tells me what it is

It's actually because I WANT him to win

 

[QuarterMoonII]

If Nathaniel runs at least a place in the Arc, we need to get somebody along for a photograph when Famouswise hands over the fifty notes to TopClass. I can’t see it happening myself – they’ll be old white fivers with cobwebs on them!

SwanHills, you are dead right about the state of the ground. I would not back a horse like Snow Fairy, who does not want it soft, because I am almost certain she will be scratched.

The French water the big tracks to produce “good” ground so it is never going to run fast in October. The problem that creates is that you get years like last year when heavy rain is forecast on Arc weekend and the form book potentially goes out the window. As it happened they had some overnight rain but it did not turn into a quagmire and Goldikova still managed to win the Prix de la Forêt despite the soft ground.

If they didn’t water their tracks the ground would surely always be acceptable in October but (to coin a phrase usually used about Tykes) you can always tell a Frenchman, but not much.

 

[kiyonemakibi]

It is only in the last few years that the Japanese have sent runners over to France. Their initial attempt was with Deep Impact, who was subsequently disqualified from third place. In the last two years they have sent a couple of horses, obviously attracted by the large prize money and possibly also by the perceived weakness of European middle distance horses since Sea The Stars retired.

Don't forget El Condor Pasa finishing 2nd to Montjeu in 1999 - though that was an isolated case before they started doing it in earnest over the last few years as said.