That is my point, I think talking about official marks and RPR on horses in the Derby is far from the optimal way of rating the race. I would much rather trust what I see rather than try to rate the race around beaten horses. Take Dashing Willoughby as an example, rated 105 by Timeform, 102 official and 104 best by RPR. Now put him in a handicap and who knows what he could run to. He could be a 100 horse or he could be a 90 horse. We simply do not know with these horses. What I would say though is i’d rather have a Dante winner who beat a Dewhurst winner who confirmed form in an Irish Guineas than a Chester Vase winner who beat a Zetland winner and a wolves maiden winner.
totally agree Stick - I also want Telecaster to win because I think Oisin Murphy is on his way to becoming the best jockey of his generation.
I wouldn’t disagree about Murphy, at all, but where is the next big job going to come from in European Flat racing??? A role that he can exploit and get top class rides from every single weekend - rather than just now and then. Coolmore, Go Dolphin and old boy Hamdan all have pretty settled looking employees to me. And in all fairness to that little Qatari chap he’s in no way in any of their leagues. Maybe if Juddmonte go down the retained line again there would be an opening.
Here's what Alex "Mush" Hammond thinks: "We could chew the fat for hours about the race, but the top and bottom of it is, I’m backing Telecaster to win and Madhmoon each-way and I hope they give me a run for my money (which is exactly what Telecaster’s trainer Hughie Morrison will be hoping for too!)."
Another boost for the Pink Dogwood form with the winner at Gowran Park- ALTAIR Altho the distance says different she won with a bit in hand -
How good is Sir Dragonet? The two races that he has had are not working out well. The Tippperary maiden that he won was awful. Seven of the horses have reappeared and none have won – indeed Heavenly Snow who finished third finished last of 12 beaten twelve and three quarters on his next outing, two of the other horses have run in handicaps and were well beaten off 63 and 55 respectively. The Chester Vase was not a great group 3 NORWAY and ARTHUR KITT won listed races last season – the rest won either their maiden, or a class 3 or4. KALOOR is the only horse to run post Chester and beaten eleven and half lengths in a listed race at Goodwood. You can only beat what is in front of you; however the fact is that what was in front of Sir Dragonet were not very good. The only reason he is favourite is based on the bizarre performance at Chester. Two races on flat tracks on soft ground is not good preparation for the undulations of Epsom, especially if firm appears in the description. He may turn out to be a world beater – but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it!
I think we have to at least consider the official handicap marks as a Guide to how much a horse needs to improve in order to win an average Derby. We have a wealth of data from previous Derby renewals and can compile an average figure for however many years we select as being relevant in forming a figure we expect to be a minimum required to win the upcoming Derby. One who stands out to me as bad value for this year's Derby is Bangkok. Balding's colt is generally 8's and 9's for the Derby but his official rating is only 104. In addition his last race has seen 5 subsequent runs and all five have been unplaced. Through Martyn Meade's Technician Bangkok has a dickens of a task with Sir Dragonet. Looking at the official ratings for the Derby, we see the following figures:- Anthony Van Dyck 118 Telecaster 115 Madhmoon 115 Line Of Duty 114 Broome 112 Japan 111 Circus Maximus 110 Cape Of Good Hope 106 Surfman 105 Norway 104 Bangkok 104 Sovereign 103 Sir Dragonet does not have an official rating yet and the remainder of the field are rated less than 100. It is clear from official ratings that Telecaster is a leading player but his odds now more than reflect that fact. I am just wondering if the 115 figure may be inflated a bit because of Too Darn Hot? Looking at Bangkok, he is tied in with Telecaster to some extent and his form hasn't worked out. Many will have felt that Telecaster would prove the better long term prospect but perhaps not to the tune of an 11 lb higher rating already. Bangkok's relative form with Telecaster is part of the reason I see the Balding horse as poor value in the Derby. I would expect Bangkok to drift on the day and he's not an assured stayer either in my opinion. I can't quite escape the notion that Bangkok beat Telecaster though, Maybe I am over cautious but it nags with me. I just have my doubts about Too Darn Hot. He didn't stay in the Dante and was hastily re-routed to the Irish Guineas. He was thrashed by Phoenix Of Spain and while Timeform simply reacted by raising the Hills horse to 126 and the Leading 3YO in Europe, I have my concerns. They have Magna Grecia on 125 as the second best 3YO in Europe but he was pish in the Irish Guineas. Calyx is the third best with Timeform on 124 but that looked as hollow as a fart in outer space at Haydock last Saturday. If the ground were soft I would be with Sir Dragonet as he is obviously a rapidly improving colt. However the ground is a huge question for him. I suspect taht if there is a dominant winner this year it may be him given that he came from nowhere to Derby favourite in just two races. The worst case scenario for me would be three O'Brien colts filling the places and just a length covering them. I hope we get a decisive winner and Hughie Morrison or Kevin Prendergast would be good trainers to see in the winners enclosure. Morrison has not hit the big time very often and it is 1996 that saw Prendergast last having a runner in the race. Best of luck to all concerned, it is a puzzling renewal, if not a vintage one.
I don't buy THD not staying 10 furlongs,he was beaten 1length by a race fit horse. Are we to assume that the likes of Japan, Line of duty and Surfman didn't stay 10 furlongs? If so what are they doing entered for the Derby? This is a poor Derby,no G1 winner in the field. It says everything when the favourite won a wretched maiden and a G3 in name only Even now the picture is confusing with several horses holding French Derby entries. Tomorrow we will get the final acceptors together with the draw
Frankie is on Anapurna in the Oaks. She has shortened to 5/1 in places. Pink Dogwood is now favourite at 9/4 and 2/1. Anapurna may be well backed with Dettori on board now. I expect Havlin's filly to drift in comparison.
shes also drifted to 11/2 in places, 7.4 on betifar, Mehdaayih 4.2 looks like Medhaayih is Havlins mount,Dettori was on the lesser fancied Gosden at Chester and if he had the pick here im sure he would have been on Medhaayih
Altair was odds-on for that race though and she won from a filly rated 82. In form terms it told us nothing really. Pink Dogwood is short enough for me and although Tarnawa won a Gp 3 by a neck next time, the odds-on Fav Who's Steph ran below form, only 3/4 of a length ahead of a filly rated 91. Who's Steph had an official rating of 108 and should have had tons in hand of the third filly. Of course O'Brien is the master and it's not a good looking Oaks (Never looked a good prospect from season's end last year) but 2/1 is pretty skinny for me.
The media report O'Brien as having a strong Derby hand. Surely running SEVEN in a 13 runner race is a sign that mediocrity is ruling the roost here. Cape Of Good Hope goes to France along with Surfman from the Varian yard. I doubt Andre Fabre is dropping to his knees in concern for Persian King.
