It would have been madness not to supplement them. This may be the best shot Hughie Morrison ever gets and Aidan's troops are all much about such with Sir Dragonet the one with the potential to be something better class. I was hoping for a better show from Magna Grecia in the Irish Guineas and O'Brien is at a loss as to why he ran so poorly. It does not give confidence that the Newmarket Guineas was much cop and with it the form of Madhmoon looks devalued. In some ways the supplemented colts represent the best chance we have of finding a winner who is not mediocre. Sir Dragonet came right away from his field in the Chester Vase but it was testing looking that day. Will he have the tactical speed if the ground is quick? The going was reported as Good at 1.15 today with some showers possible today and tomorrow but warmer and drier weather is forecast from Wednesday onwards. In the Oaks I just had a small bet on Anapurna. She looked very progressive last time and although a but softer might suit her she made more appeal than the stablemate favourite at her odds. Pink Dogwood is too short for me and Maqsad was impressive last time but has not been missed by the layers. I reckon Lavenders Blue at 16/1 is appealing for each-way especially if anyone offers 4th place betting on the day. Anapurna 8/1 Lavenders Blue 16/1 EW
It is going to be good to firm unless they open the hoses up for a couple of days. Friday and Saturday look very warm and Epsom dries out quickly. This could influence things a great deal.
A lot of the trial winners appear to be around the same level on paper, so its probably about who is improving, who is taking the big steps forward, and the prime candidates for that appear to be Sir Dragonet and Telecaster, if either of those two were to take a similar step forward as in their previous races, they wont have much to worry about from this field. The ground is a question mark for Sir Dragonet given his action, there is also a possibility that he picked up the pieces of a race that fell apart at Chester and on fast ground he wont have as many stopping in front of him, as 3/1 fav im passing. I cant back Broome, hes just too slow, on paper he looks exposed as a 114 soft ground 10f horse to me. Got beat with a soft lead in a conveyor belt G1 as a 2yo in France, the horses flanking him on that occasion have been beaten 20+ combined in Guineas this year. He was well held by Madhmoon on good too firm and Madhmoon looks a notch below top class. The runner up in the Derrinstown was all out to win off 74 and Guaranteed who was beaten 6L, just got beat 11 1/2 in the Irish Guineas. He is also out of a 5f listed winning Acclamation mare and If he wins the Derby then ill probably chuck gambling and this years 3yos might as well pack it in too. Im also concerned about Anthony Van Dycks pedigree, being out of a Exceed and Excel mare, he won over 1m3 on soft at Lingfield but this is a much stiffer test, he was an early 2yo and his best form puts him in the mix with what has been achieved so far but I dont think hes improving and its noticeable that the only other runner from that Lingfield race that decided to turn up here is a 250/1 outsider Hiroshima. Bangkok was a bit keen as a 2yo and unlucky not to win a maiden, running in some of the better contests, he beat Telecaster first time out this year when Balding was winning everything, but the form of his Sandown win has been so badly hammered that its impossible for me to fancy him as a win contender. He has a great pedigree for it and im sure he is better than the bare form says at Sandown, but I dont think he has progressed as much as Telecaster and I expect that form to be reversed. Id also have concerns about him mentally handling the occasion, could easily pull his chance away. Japan looked like a Leger horse to me and he didnt do anything to change that opinion at York, the market suggested he would need the run but seems unlikely to have bridged such a gap with the winner in the last 2 weeks. I think he will step forward and run a good race here but dont see him having the tools to win. As previously mentioned with Madhmoon, I dont think he has the pedigree to win a Derby and he has always looked just a notch below top class, I think running him here is a bit of a hail mary play with options thin on the ground for a G2 winning 2yo, but I like the trainer and hope he runs well for him. I think Telecasters form got a good boost with Too Darn Hot proving well up to G1 level with a 2nd in the Irish Guineas, that looked like the strongest 3yo race run so far and it was only 9 days after a serious race at York. The impression of the Dante was that we were looking at two G1 horses, and TDH has backed that up with a solid run. I think he has trained on but as some feared, he hasnt improved on a top class 2yo career. Its encouraging that Surfman, Line of Duty and Japan were all considered worthy of running here after being well beaten in the Dante, it shows that the horses in that race were highly regarded. For all it appeared an unsatisfactory race, its not like the pacemaker finished 2nd staying on, he collapsed in the final furlong while the winner who chased him round looked very strong at the line. Telecaster ran faster and finished faster than all bar Too Darn Hot and there was no fluke about the result. The extra 2f could see further improvement and my only concern is that this race is usually won by a hold up horse, so id like to see Murphy ride a more patient race than he did at York. This horse always appealed to me on pedigree and since York, Ive thought he was the standout candidate for this race. Of the outsiders, Norway is worth an e/w bet at 40/1, he was very weak in the betting at Chester which surprised me given his pedigree, hes a full brother to Ruler of the World, who won the Chester Vase and Derby, and a half to Duke Of Marmalade, so I fancied him strongly and fully expected so see him smashed up in the betting for Moore and Obrien who had won the previous umpteen renewals. Maybe THEY KNEW about Sir Dragonet or maybe Norway was badly in need of the run, either way hes a really nice horse to my eye, and ive always liked him, had a good bet on when he won his maiden last year against the market. If you look at who he beat that day, Blenheim Palace and Rakan have run well behind Broome in the Derrinstown, and I Am Superman ran a blinder in the Irish Guineas. He will enjoy being back on fast ground and I think hes the forgotten horse of the Obrien mob.
the most impressive Trials winner was Sir Dragonet, but certainly the ground needs to be taken into consideration. this looks like being the firmest Derby ground for years, it is already very dry, but with hot conditions also forecast for Saturday I think the one certainty of Derby day is that the race will be run on good to firm ground. Telecaster therefore has a huge chance along with Madhmoon who has good form on quicker ground to go alongside that 4th in the Guineas. the unknown factor for me is which O'Brien comes out of his huge pack - you can be certain that one will, it is just a question of which one.
Im going with Tauteke 50/1 in the Oaks, this race often throws up an outsider given its generally lightly raced fillies getting a proper stamina test for the first time, and this one looks to be flying under the radar a bit. The horses at the front of the market are not really doing it for me, Medhaayih has looked the classiest of them so far but not convinced she will see it out well enough, same goes for Maqsad and Lavenders Blue. Pink Dogwood has seemingly been Ballydoyles Oaks filly all along and she should stay, has she done enough to warrant being 11/4? im not sure anything could be considered much value at under 4/1 in this field. I was looking to Anapurna as a viable option as she won her trial impressively and she has the pedigree, the dam was 2nd in a Yorkshire Oaks, but digging deeper, I thought she looked quite fit and ready for the race, she had run in December and January, and it might have been another case of a Frankel handling the soft ground better than most. Tauteke was second in that race, clear of the others, and I think there is a case to make for her reversing the form. Varian has said that she had not come to herself before the Lingfield race and that she is looking a different horse now, the same connections won the Musidora and have opted to go for the French Oaks instead, possibly because they have a decent filly for this race? The dam was a 12f Group 3 winner on soft ground but Sea The Stars generally prefer fast ground. I think the combination of a more testing race on better ground, and with that run under her belt, will see Tauteke in a better light and at 8/1 against 50/1, I think shes worth chancing. As far as 50/1 shots go, im quite confident of a big run.
I am not so sure about Too Darn Hot. In the Irish Guineas he went from 6 lbs ahead of Phoenix Of Spain on Champagne Stakes form, to 7 lbs behind him on Racing Post Ratings. On Official Ratings Too Darn Hot was rated 14 lbs ahead of the winner coming into the race and 21 lbs ahead of Decrypt, who was only half a length behind in 3rd place. Even allowing for improvement from 1st and 3rd, that is a bit worrying for me and I can only really assume some regression on the part of Too Darn Hot. 126 was probably a ridiculous rating for Too Darn Hot last year. After runs of 116 and 113 on RPR in the Dante and Irish Guineas I was interested in seeing what the Official Handicapper made of Gosden's colt in his updated ratings this week and he reacted by dropping Too Darn Hot to 120. That seems to indicate a feeling of regression and the question for Telecaster fans will be how well Gosden's horse actually ran in the Dante? Bookmakers heavily favour Phoenix Of Spain for any potential rematch in the St James Palace and I note that Gosden's King Of Comedy is the more upwardly mobile of the stablemates in the St James Palace betting. King Of Comedy put a fairly moderate run behind him when a good winner next time and he improved to 111 from 100 on Official Ratings. There was 28 lbs between the two colts on RPR at one stage but they ran to exactly the same rating of 113 on their latest starts. Slightly concerning for me regarding the Dante strength.
I think its obvious now that he was overrated at 2yo, the Dewhurst form hasnt worked out well at all, Anthony Van Dyck won a weakish race at 1m3 on soft, Advertise was tailed off in the Guineas and Sangarius was well beaten in a listed race, handicapper obviously fell for the hype with that 126 rating and 120 is more realistic. That said, his 2nd in the Irish Guineas shows hes still among the best 3yos at a mile, and possibly was up against a track bias with the winner of that race. When you compare to Frankels Dewhurst, the runner up went on to win the Irish Guineas and Dream Ahead was a top sprinter at 3yo. In hindisght Too Darn Hot shouldnt have been rated anywhere near the same as Frankel.
O'Brien has three horses still in the English and French Derbies including Anthony van dyce and Norway.
With regards how strong the Dante form is, hasnt TDH just proven its 2019 3yo G1 standard form, whatever that may equate to? He did run 2nd in a G1, how it compares to other years isnt really relevant as we are talking about what looks a mediocre group of horses this year. Looking at the other trials, the runners up hardly scream elite G1 class, none of them would be in Too Darn Hots class even given that he was overrated. I expected the Dante to be the best trial, my initial reaction was that it was the best trial, and the runner up finishing 2nd in what looked like the race of the season so far, confirms that for me. I seem to be in the minority with that opinion as most were quick to knock the race and continue to do so. Ive got Telecaster 120+ and dont think he has to improve much if any to win this renewal.
I agree that the Dante looks by far the strongest trial, visually and on the figures. Sometimes the answer is staring us in the face and I sincerely hope that a smaller operation can win it with Telecaster.
He’s run second in a Dante and then a Guineas. To me that is strong form to rate an unexposed and potentially improving Telecaster against. TDH hasn’t grown much and the others have caught up with him in terms of maturity. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t a 123 class juvenile, it could just mean that he hasn’t improved or stayed at the same majorly impressive level. Even a regression to 120 shows how strong the form looks. What else has beaten a horse of that calibre in a trial?
Depends how strong any given renewal is. Just because a race is a Group 1 does not mean it is a certain level in any given renewal. Some years are better than others. Too Darn Hot's new Official Mark is not indicative that he has run to 120 yet this season. Handicappers are always quick to raise a horse's rating, often too quick, but they take forever to drop them back again. Another sub-par performance from Too Darn Hot will probably see the 120 rating reduced again. In the Irish Guineas Magna Grecia did not run to form, he was at least a stone worse than Newmarket. Another worrying consideration for me is I Am Superman only 3 lengths behind Too Darn Hot. I Am Superman had won a Handicap well from a mark of 89 and was pushed up to 101 on official figures but instead of trying him in a Handicap under a penalty before he could be re-assessed, they put him into a Listed Race where he looked too short a price. He was only 5th in that Listed contest and he ran to 94 on Racing Post figures that day. It seems a coincidence that he is deemed to have bounced right back to his best as a 66/1 shot when 12 lbs worse as 11/8 Fav. It's not a great race and none of the trials look strong. The one exception might be Sir Dragonet in the Chester Vase but he could be a totally different proposition on faster ground. If people have Telecaster at 25/1 they have a great bet but at 5/1 now I still feel he has a little bit to prove for my money at least. We will find out in due course. There won't be any excuses from me whatever the outcome. It's all just opinions at the moment.
I Am Superman boiled over the day he ran in the listed race and hence the earplugs in the Guineas. I don’t think you can rate the race around his listed run.
Which is the same as Norway when beaten by SD. Perhaps instead the Chester race should be rated around the Wolves maiden winner Dashing Willoughby.
Even if you take his Handicap winning run he's just a Handicap winner now rated 101, and finishing three lengths ahead of that is hardly the performance of a horse officially rated 120 is it?
? Norway has an official rating of 104, while Dashing Willoughby has an official rating of 102. With 3/4 of a length between them in the Chester Vase it pretty much makes zero difference which one you choose to rate the performance of Sir Dragonet on. I don't get your point here at all.
From eons ago when they were HUGE prices I have TELECASTER and LAVENDERS BLUE, superhuman to get two to the post let alone get winners. Both from unfashionable stables and would be a breath of fresh air in my opinion.
