Info not exact (3rd party) but was put on right track . Drift told the story and happy with a nice bit of profit.
I agree that Hermosa today did demonstrate that she is going to be the three year old filly to beat over a mile. I can see her going for the Coronation at Royal Ascot and then the Nassau at Goodwood – the same route that Winter followed. Hermosa races like a filly that will get the ten furlongs and obviously Coolmore want it on her record. There are still races to be won with Pretty Pollyanna. She is not the first horse to run too freely on debut and I think she will come on. However, they will surely look to avoid the O’Brien filly by going to the July Meeting at HQ. I would not want to step Pretty Pollyanna up beyond a mile. The cynic in me thinks that when trainers/jockeys tell owners to step up in distance it is often a tacit admission that the horse is not fast enough rather than the trip is too short.
You can get 3/1 on Siyarafina now. She is joint Fav in a place with Hermosa. Hermosa also has stamina to prove and with the mile division for 3YO fillies looking hers for the taking, then why step up in trip now? Hermosa was generally cut to 7/4 favourite for the Coronation Stakes, a race where Michael Stoute's Jubiloso looks ridiculous at 4/1 in a place and I reckon Siyarafina is good value at 3/1 for the Diane, given that she was that price before winning today. Hermosa splatted her field today but it was a filly with a long lay off, and stamina questions, who followed her home. Qabala scoped abnormally after the race, while Just Wonderful ran six lengths worse than she did at Newmarket in today's race. Foxtrot Liv in third place casts doubt on the quality of today's form. She ran behind Hermosa in a Group 3 last season but she had not improved at all from that this season, still stuck on 102 for an official rating coming into today. East was woeful today while Fairyland has not even run to 100 on Racing Post figures. I have never liked the Breeders Cup for 2YO UK horses as I feel it is hard on youngsters. Just Wonderful ran in the Breeders Cup, as did East and they were both very poor today. Runaway winner of that race, Newspaperofrecord, was turned over at odds of 1/5 Fav when she returned to action this Spring and the winner of the Colts version, Line Of Duty, was out with the washing in the Dante at York, running to just 97 on ratings, well below expectations. Whatever the reason, there were some seriously below par efforts today with East the worst on 74, a whopping 33 lbs below her official rating and Just Wonderful and Fairyland at least a stone below par. It was a one horse race where even Pretty Pollyanna was short of her best by 8 lbs. It looked a good performance from Hermosa but nothing really stepped up to challenge her and Qabala was too bad too be true. Over in France Zabeel Prince did the business and in the style I felt he might. He quickened up to take control but with Study Of Man closing in for second I would be wary of taking the 10F route with Zabeel Prince. A mile would be better for him I feel and one of the horses he beat last time sits as favourite for the Queen Anne, so why not take Zabeel Prince to that race? I backed Zabeel Prince for the Queen Anne at 20/1 because I felt he would shorten with a win today. Zabeel Prince is as low as 7/1 now but bigger with some firms. I mean, would you rather back Le Brivido for that race when it is coming up on two years since he won and he holds entries over 7F, 1M and 6F in various races around about Royal Ascot time? 7/1 for the O'Brien colt looks awful value and the Group 3 entry at 7F in Ireland does not exactly bolster confidence. I would make Zabeel Prince favourite if he turns up in the Queen Anne and he's paid for that bet today anyway so it's a question of hoping they decide to take him down that route now.
War of Will was 5th in Line of Duty race, he just won the Preakness last week. Newspaperofrecord was also beaten by a filly who ran behind her in the Juvenile. Just Wonderful is a complete dog, I found that out when I backed her at Newmarket. I also fancied Foxtrot Liv ew at 40s, she was the only horse in the race I was really interested in. Hermosa will have no problem with the trip in France, she's bred for it being a full sister to Hydrangea who stayed 1m4, and O'brien has confirmed that is her target, he doesn't have a great record in the race though. Interestingly, given that she didn't win a 2yo G1 in Europe, Hydrangea also ran in the breeders Cup Juvenile, also didn't stop her winning and placing in multiple G1s as a 3yo. Line of Duty wasn't the first Godolphin horse to run no race first time this season, their guineas horse also did the same after flying back from dubai, Line of Duty could easily leave that race well behind, and in fact, he's probably long odds on to do so.
I explained before that it is only UK based horses that I don't like running in the Breeders Cup. It is also with a view to the early season Classics that I choose to oppose them. It's just a personal choice I make and it's never let me down over several years now. If 2YO horses are winners in the Breeders Cup, I take the view that they probably had a hard enough race. If they run well it is usually a sign for me that they have had a tough race. If a horse is tailed off and eased down then they may benefit from that the following year. Masar never really got into his Breeders Cup race and finished without having had a hard time. The way it panned out it was as if he had not had a proper race. Line Of Duty could bounce back but if he doesn't win the Derby I will have been successful in ruling him out at an early stage. I use the previous examples to make judgements for the Guineas/Oaks/Derby and that is the sole purpose of the stats for me. Hydrangea was a late developer who won on her re-appearance in April but she was woeful in the 1000 Guineas. That looked like a bounce given that she had beaten Winter in the trial race but was miles behind her at Newmarket. Winter then beat her another three times before Hydrangea popped up at 20/1 to reverse the trend with a head victory in the Matron. Winter was having her 6th race of the season that day and O'Brien probably got the ratio of visits to the well a little wrong that day. Hydrangea then produced an unusual win over 12F on gutters, where she looked packed with stamina but they dropped her back to a mile at 4YO before upping her to 12F in two poor performances afterwards. Hydrangea was an oddball in a way, winning only 4 of her 19 races. Her two best wins were vastly different affairs. She didn't win a Guineas though and that is my only real interest in using the Breeders Cup stats. No doubt something will catch the eye in the Breeders Cup this year in the Juvenile races but I'll be against them next Spring for the Classics.
You just backed one in an early season classic yesterday. You are now changing the goalposts that's its only UK horses the race destroys. The theory is baloney, countless horses have had good careers after running in the bc Juvenile races, there really is nothing more to be said about it. You could pick any end of season 2yo race and highlight all the horses who dissappear from it and ignore the ones who go on to be successful. We have established that the race is used as a last throw of the dice for 2nd tier European horses, its hardly surprising not many of them go on to win classics. Im not commenting on it again as its beyond nonsense, but I'm sure you will continue to mention your theory. Maybe let godolphin and coolmore know they are ruining their horses potential every year with that very hard race and they would win classics with these horses if only they skipped the bc Juvenile.
