Off Topic UK / EU Future

Are the Le Pen supporters in your village dancing in the streets yet?

 

Hardly, everyone is asking how could she have done so badly after trying to get all of the right of centre parties to support her. Her share of the vote collapsed over the last week. How can someone lose 10% of the vote in a single week is the question.

 

Corbyn is 70 today - might feel a bit older after this news!

From BBC:

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn might not appreciate this result on his birthday.

His party has lost the borough of Islington to the Liberal Democrats.

Mr Corbyn lives in the borough, within which his Islington North constituency falls.​

 

It was only recently that you were claiming the Macron boy was in the lead. To prolong the long term domination of the far right in France is a superb victory. You also claimed her party was finished not so long ago. You should give up the prediction game.
Macron's federalist vision has taken a real battering. The Guardian has reported Le Pen will now be unpicking the EU from the inside.

 

What are you talking about? You just ramble on without having a clue what you are talking about. There is a big difference between a multi-party vote, and a two person presidential election. I really cannot be bothered with such poor understanding on your behalf.

 

The confusion is all yours, I'm not sure how you manage to get so much so wrong.

 

Eurosceptic or far right parties have topped the European poll in the U.K., France and Italy. Le Pen has called for a grand coilition

 

Coalition.

 

There are some interesting questions raised by these results. Taking the EU parliament the expected right wing surge has just not happened. The centre will still be the largest grouping, but far more from the Liberal/Green parties will have representation.
In the UK the collapse in both the Labour and Tory party is totally unseen before. As the seats are distributed we see that Brexit have taken the seats previously held by UKIP and sometimes the Tories. LibDems and Greens have taken seats from both Tories and Labour. Brexit Ltd. can go along and make a noise within the EU, but will have no more relevance than UKIP ever did.
So when the MPs return to Westminster how many Brexit MPs will there be? Still none. They can continue shouting from the sidelines, but until they become a proper party and put up candidates in a general election, they remain a pressure group, nothing more. Despite the spin there is still little in the leave and remain vote, with remain slightly ahead. It might just have the effect on Labour to sort out just where they do stand. 9% for the Tories currently is a disaster that even in their lowest days has never been seen before.

 

Indicates the country is as split as ever... Sadly... Pretty much down the middle between leave and remain parties.. With the two establishment parties decimated...

Sent from my F8331 using Tapatalk

 

Now the dust has settled politics in the UK and Europe will not be the same as usual. The Brexit Party scored a spectacular victory spearheaded by the influential Nigel Farage. This, coupled by the Tories poor showing, will ensure a firm Brexiteer is elected as the new PM.

Remain votes went to the resident protest party, the Lib Dems, and the Greens. The Change UK and UKIP parties were completely ignored by the voters and are likely to be put down in a short period to alleviate any further suffering.
The Labour Party also suffered badly due its confusing flip flopping messages. It will now firmly latch onto the 'remain' camps and demand another referendum. This will lose it large numbers of core supporters in the North that voted for Brexit.

In Europe the predicted massive surge of populists did not happen but significant gains were made by eurosceptic parties and will now have roughly a third of all MEPs. Eurosceptics made gains in France, Italy, Hungary, and Germany. The 40- year grip of the two main centrist political groups in the EU has been broken. Although beaten at home by Le Pen's far right party, Macron is set to be well placed to push his controversial federalist agenda. The new EU parliament will undoubtedly be a more interesting place. I very much look forward to hearing Anne Widdecombe's maiden speech.

 

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party will now be the largest individual party in the European Parliament. I'm sure the thought of its new MEPs berating the EU on its failings for the next five years fills the eurocrats with horror. They will want the UK out of the EU as quickly as possible. There must be zero chance of any extension to the October deadline making a no deal exit much more likely.

 

If you look at the results more closely some of what you say is correct, but some of it is not. Just over 40% of people in the UK voted for parties clearly against Brexit, against the just under 35% who voted for clearly defined leavers. If the Tories take that as a sign to elect a Brexiteer PM they need to think again.
In France the huge surge in favour of Le Pen disappeared. Her 10%lead finished up at below 1% and she will have the same number of seats as Macron. The President actually had the best result ever for a sitting President in an EU election. What has been obvious is the number of people who just do not understand PR and can only think in terms of FPTP.

 

Why should the parliament worry about Farage who only turns up on pay day?

 

The projected results look as follows:
European People's Party 179 seats (down from 217)
Prog. Alliance of Socialists and democrats 150 Seats (down from 189)
Euro. Conservatives and Reformists 58 Seats (down from 74)
Alliance of Liberals & Democrats 107 Seats (up from 68)
European United Left - Nordic Green Left 38 Seats (down from 52)
Greens-European Free Alliance 70 Seats (up from 51)
Europe of Nations & Freedom 58 seats (up from 37)
Non-Inscrits 7 seats (down from 18)
Europe of freedom and direct democracy 56 seats (up from 42)

Various things have become clear - the predicted far right wing surge didn't happen. Their two blocks have only a seventh of the available seats. The traditional conservative and socialist blocks are on the decline, and the Liberal and Green positions have strengthened. The overwhelming majority of voters voted for parties which are commited to Europe. The German results are the most relevant because they are based on the highest turnout (61.4%) and are, therefore, most similar to what could be expected at a general election. According to that basis the most popular single parties (in terms of the numbers who voted for them) were the German CDU/CSU and the German Green Party. Unfortunately countries get their allocated numbers of seats independently of turnout so Britain gets its full allocation despite the paultry 37% who actually turned up.

What has also become clear is that our neighbourhood WUM, is not actually a Tory. He claims to be a member of that party but is, in fact, chuffed about the victory of another (against his own). Yet he called for Michael Heseltine to be thrown out of the party for doing exactly the same thing.

All in all a result which I can live with. This is the first time the Greens have come second in a national election in Germany (and won all the major cities) - and the greens also did well in several other European countries. Being, by far, the most cohesive block in the EU Parliament a great deal can be achieved from that position.

 

Another observation is that the highest turnouts were in Belgium (89%), Luxembourg (84.1%), Denmark (66%), Malta (72.6%), Spain (64.3%) and Germany (61.5%). In all countries where the turnout was over 60% (ie. realistic) the hard right did badly, or were less successfull than they hoped. Which tends to prove that the more people vote the better. Spain was the best - Lots of socialists, the greens did well and not a Fascist in sight.

 

What you fail to understand is probably the majority of Tories were so disgusted by the blocking tactics against Brexit they were compelled to register a protest vote. This also occurred en masse on the remain side. I can assure you I am a paid up member of the Conservative party which is why I will be taking my duty to elect a new Prime Minister on your behalf very seriously.

The eurosceptic combined parties will amount to about a third of all MEPs, they will have a strong voice in the new parliament.

 

How do you work out this 'third of all MEPs claim' ? Can you list them in any meaningfull way ? As far as I can see they belong to 2 groups - The Europe of Nations and Freedom group (includes Le Pens cronies and the Liga Nord and little else) and the Europe of freedom and democracy group (includes Nazi Nige, the five star nutters from Italy and a few disgruntled East Germans). Altogether a disjointed rabble who will not agree with each other for more than 5 minutes and who constitute no more than a seventh of all MEPs. Where are the rest of your imaginary army ? By way of contrast the Green group is drawn from 15 different countries, and has a common platform on all the issues of the day.

 

I'm not sure you understand PR. Le Pen has finished up with more seats than Macron.

 

I forget exactly who it was now, but someone described how he had always over forty years been a member of and voted for the same party. He broke that record after a great deal of soul searching to vote for a different party in the council elections. He went on to say that he would be voting against his party in the EU elections, but this time it seemed much easier. Now he was free in his mind to vote for what he believed in rather than just following the party line, he doubted he would return in the near future. I wonder how many others will feel the same, and this is where the two main parties are at sixes and sevens, because they have no idea where their normal loyal voters went to.