Off Topic Political Debate

Indications in France that the numbers voting will be 10% higher than last time, about 53%.

 

I expect Boris is still favourite but he may well fall before I get to decide. The eventual winning contestant will definitely be a Brexiteer.

 

Earlier this week Le Pen was sure that her party would be ahead of Macron by about 10%. Anything less will be a failure for the far right again. Although the polls closed here at 6.00 pm, voting continues in the big cities until 10.00 pm.

 

Cottection to my last post: There will be no official exit polls released until after 23.00 - the reason for this is that the last Italian polling booth closes at 23.00. All the unofficial figures indicate that the German vote has not changed since my last post. According to reports the far right have lost ground in both Austria and the Netherlands up to now. The Greens have also gained in the Netherlands and done well in Austria.

 

Early polls suggesting that ELAM in Cyprus, the right wing party there have not gathered enough votes to win a seat.
Holland now saying that far right have been trounced.

 

The first turnout figures for the UK show the area covering Birmingham at 31.1% (down from 32.4% in 2014), while the turnout for the south east in the European elections is 39.36%, which is up from 36.3% in 2014.

 

Your are joking? The far right have dominated the European elections in France for years, they are set to do well again this time. The only failure continues to be Macron's bunch. Macron' popularity remains at a low 30%.

 

You have a prediction of how far ahead of Macron Le Pen will be? I gave you what Le Pen was saying, she would gather 10% more votes than Macron. I will be surprised if that happens, my guess is nearer 5%, but as the left wing has collapsed it becomes more difficult to call.

 

She probably expects with a eurosceptic public and an unpopular President her party should continue to dominate French politics in Euro elections. Not entirely unreasonable to assume.

 

Malta now, and again the right have lost ground.

 

As you are an expert on French politics I am sure you will want to give us your estimate of where the two parties will be when the results are announced.

 

The AfD have made gains on the previous election although the Merkel gaffe effect seems to be waning.

 

I will let you know later tonight. Best If you left your faulty crystal ball in the cupboard.

 

I think that you may like to consider the following SH.
Marine la Pen favours protectionism vs. free trade. Supports nationalization of industry. Separation of investment and retail banking. Opposes privatization of public services. Is against speculation on international commodity markets. Is opposed to globalization. Has pledged to take France out of NATO and the US sphere of influence. Is for abolition of the WTO and the international monetary fund. She wants a ''privileged partnership'' with Russia and believes that Ukraine has been ''subjugated'' by the USA. All of this does not suggest that she is the natural bedfellow of either Nigel Farage or of the AfD. In fact it all sounds very left wing - further so than nearly all parties in the UK. Also, in contrast to Farage, she does not want to leave the EU. Take away some of her views on immigration and we could be talking about a far left party here - she is certainly not an ally for some of the right wing oddballs found in the Brexit Party or amongst the Tories.

 

They have lost in relation to their general election results, which are the most recent. They have also lost in relation to their own expectations, and recent opinion polls.

 

So their results are much better than last time!

 

Le Pen wants the present Brussels set up replaced. She is also in talks to join the emerging large eurosceptic group.

 

I told you days ago that the talks would produce nothing, because the Eurosceptics had no common economic ideas, and the talks had been called off. You just keep repeating your same old mantras without finding out what is actually happening.

 

What they have in common is a dissatisfaction with the present set up and the autocrats wish for a federalist Europe.