hi fellas! plumpton,2 20: rather modest fare here,so its hard to put a finger on the form of some of these,but you can do worse than backing a tizzard horse,and SIZING TARA can go well here,if over the problems,hes obviously had.was interestingly also well fancied on his last start,so might still have potential to do better..
ludlow,3 05: a small,but tricky field,as all of these need a mention or two,but a tentative vote goes to MAC TOTTIE.he had a very productive season last year,making hay in novice hurdles,and his first run in a handicap hurdle at cheltenham probably was a bit too much for him.quite interesting,that his yard is going chasing with him so soon,so he might have shown a bit at home.good chance..
Never in doubt for Persian King, confirms the Magna Grecia form as the best 3yo mile form around, both should clear up this season at 8-10f.
I hope Persian King goes for the French Derby next. I have backed him at 10/1 for that race simply because there were odds available for that race ante-post but none for the French Guineas. I had him at 25/1 for the Newmarket race but that's the gamble with the French horses.
Suphala held a good position to strike from but she folded quickly. She was easy to back and it just doesn't seem to be happening for these Frankel fillies. Castle Lady was game but it looks a division sorely lacking in quality. East ran well enough and will probably pop up somewhere later in the year. There is a vacancy for a real quality filly and it's a pity Sirayafina missed this race. I am not sure she would have liked the ground today but there was nothing there that would have trainer Alain De Royer-Dupre soiling his lingerie with concern.
well,here are my next two verdicts: ludlow,4 15: VALSEUR DU GRANVAL bolted up here a few weeks ago,scoring with 21 lengths,and a 7 lbr rise looks fair enough.should be competitive again here. killarney,4 25: AGUSTA GOLD is the class act here,as shes been holding herself in good company over hurdles,so if she takes to fences here,surely has a future..
Frankel wouldnt be anywhere near my first choice as a sire, not at 75k never mind 175k, hes producing Gold Cup horses and mudlarks. Considering hes probably had the greatest book of mares in history, ive not been overly impressed by what he has produced. Hes getting a high volume of decent level horses but Cracksman the only real standout so far and he failed to win a classic, a lot of them seem temperamental as well.
Sea The Stars and Nathaniel are both proving better sires to my mind (especially of middle distance horses). But they are also getting their fair share of NH progeny
plumpton,4 40: MELEKHOV is,to some extent,less exposed than most here,and he went about his business quite well last time out,so good chance,he ll keep progressing..
Just to observe on the French 1000 Guineas result. Commes went down by a nose today but Siyarafina absolutely thrashed her last time with consummate ease. It's a bit frustrating that the trainer pulled her out because she had not sparkled on the gallops. She could almost have won today's race on three legs on the form line through Commes. Suphala had also beaten Commes last season and fairly readily that day as well. She just hasn't come forward though. The colts race was about two seconds quicker than the fillies and Persian King carried 2 lbs more. The spokesman and trainer spoke of the French Derby being quite a tempting target for Persian King next time. Paddy Power offer 9/4 for Persian King to win that contest and that's value. They have UAE Jewel 6/1 second favourite for that race but he's not in the same league in my opinion. The Racing Post have UAE Jewel just 3 lbs lower rated than Persian King and that is nonsense in my opinion. I said after the Prix Djebel that the ratings for Munitions and Graignes were too high on 113 because that left them just 2 lbs below Persian King. If Persian King only had that much in hand he would not have gone off well odds-on. The Racing Post figures for today's 2000 Guineas were rubbish, a total bum steer for the uninformed.
Having wiped the egg of face. Whilst there was no excuses for East's defeat I just wonder what effect the lack of a prep race had- she was one of two making their seasons debut. The other thing to take out of the race is that she seems to need further. She has three entries- all group 1 races. The Irish guineas in a fortnight, The coronation at ascot and the pretty Polly over10 furlongs at the Curragh,but would Ryan want to take on Enable? I would like to see her entered in the French oaks, which nowadays is run over 10 furlongs. With regards Suphala I think that she did not act on heavy ground. I don't think that there is much wrong with the Frankel fillies. East is by Frankel and she ran ok.
Don't be too sure about Persian King being a shoo in for the Prix du Jockey club. This race is just 3 weeks away,and I don't think that the connections of Persian King really wanted a relatively hard race on heavy ground. Better race in my opinion would be the Eclipse with the prospect of a sound surface,also I think the proximity of the third somewhat devalues the form, only a listed race win of consequence and,Varian in interview, stated that the horse had suffered a setback and missed an intended prep race. Like you I don't take much notice of the Racing post ratings.TheBHB ratings are those that matter and a horse has to run three times to be rated. It would be unwise to underestimate UAE Jewel. It won the Wood Ditton impressively and the form is standing up. The listed race he won was a messy affair 6 seconds above average, why do trials have to be tactical when,surely the idea is to learn as mush as possible about the horse? The final piece of the jigsaw is the O'Brien factor. With the English and French Derbies run on consecutive days O'Brien will have decisions to make. He has potentially three possible winners in the English Derby. They can't all win so it will be interesting to see the final declarations.
That wasn't a hard race for Persian King, he won it with plenty in hand. The ground was softer than he likes and something has to fill the places in behind. Listening to the owner's representative the French Derby is their preferred target and he mentioned that Fabre concurred with that as the best option. The Wood Ditton is a famous name but it is only a maiden for unraced horses and I can't agree that the form is holding up. The runner up was beaten at Hamilton at odds of 1/12 Fav in a Maiden race. The 4th home won a Pontefract maiden at odds of 30/100 Fav and the sole piece of any real form is the third winning well at Lingfield but even then that was a class 5 race and it was virtually a match between Mutaraffa and the Crisford horse Aristocratic Lady. Aristocratic Lady pulled far too hard in that race and even if we take Mutaraffa's RPR of 90 at face value it's miles behind Persian King, who is the only horse to beat 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia and he has now won the French 2000 Guineas as well. For me, Persian King's form is more solid by miles and I think he has a fair bit in hand of the Varian colt. The O'Brien horses mostly look like they will need 12F and possibly more, so I doubt the French Derby will suit them. For me, Dee Stakes winner Circus Maximus or Anthony Van Dyck look the ones to consider for France. However, I believe the Fabre horse has more in hand of them than the ratings suggest. The son of Kingman also has repeated performances of a higher level into the bargain and could well have more to come yet. The French Derby will be a whole new ball game for UAE Jewel and it may be rushing the colt to fire him into that level so early. Patience may be a more rewarding strategy.
