Hard to know what to make of Epic Hero. He seemed to have every chance but in the end he was actually pipped for third in the last stride. The Racing Post assessor bumped the winner up to 109 but I have my doubts about that. Perhaps the form of Epic Hero isn't great and I have wondered about Andre Fabre's reluctance to go to Newmarket for the Guineas with Persian King. He has consistently expressed the view that his top colt would not cope with Too Darn Hot or Ten Sovereigns. Ghaiyyath runs later in the Ganay and I read that long term they hope to up him to a mile and a half for the Arc. I've had a bet on him for that race at 16/1 and hopefully he can enhance his reputation further today. Arc De Triomphe Ghaiyyath 16/1
Well Ghaiyyath was well and truly bubble burst there. That was woeful and I've already binned my Arc ticket. Waste of four quid there It's probably back to the drawing board with Ghaiyyath as he clearly seems fragile. The ATR crew were quite negative about him the build up but then suddenly suggested he might win by 7, 8 or 9 lengths. Epic Hero beat at 1/2 and Ghaiyyath at 1/3, it certainly wasn't a day to be "Buying Money" at Longchamp.
I just did Mer Et Nuages and Roman Candle today because I thought they were better value at 10/1 and 11/4 than the favourites were. Mer Et Nuages ran well in third place but I was a bit disappointed given that the ones I wanted to lay, Polydream and Ostilio were second last and last respectively. Plumatic has generally been disappointing since being considered Fabre's Epsom Derby colt at one stage. Olmedo ran something more like a French 2000 Guineas winner today. I was surprised to see Ostilio go off favourite today. He was progressive last year but generally in handicaps before landing a weak looking Group 2. The Crisford stable has not been in the best of form either. On Racing Post Ratings Roman Candle came in rated highest and Starmaniac's race had not worked out so far. At the odds I preferred the Fabre colt and he covered my bets. Starmaniac has to go down as disappointing today and he was a crazy looking 3/5 Fav when I checked in a 3.20 in the afternoon. Not my favourite track Saint-Cloud, as it seems to be hard to get reliable going reports for. It varied between Good and Heavy today, depending where you looked. Never mind.
I did Suphala for the French 1000 Guineas but with the ground soft it is hard to call the race. In the 2000 Guineas Persian King is 8/11 but Andre Fabre feels good ground is best for him. He only has himself to blame if the soft conditions scupper his colt, because they skipped the Newmarket version in thinking they would get better ground at home. Seems fuzzy logic to me because more often than not it seems to be wet in France. Maybe it was just another excuse for not taking on the Gosden and O'Brien horses but hopefully Persian King can take this on the way to the French Derby.
Job done by Persian King on ground probably less than ideal. 6/4 for the French Derby now and hopefully he can go on and complete the double. UAE Jewel is 6/1 2nd fav for the French Derby but he will find Persian King both better, and faster, than anything he has met so far. Happy with 10/1 on Persian King for the French Derby and 6/4 may not be a bad price in time.
Zarkallani again finished a close up 2nd, but I'm still convinced he is a high quality colt as is very much a work in progress
With the initial entries for the Arc having closed, followers of French racing might be interested in a few of them... I have started a thread specifically for the race. The older horses include WALDGEIST (Andre Fabre) and MUSIS AMICA (Andre Fabre) but are otherwise quite thin on the ground on the French side. The three year olds include ZARKALLANI (Alain de Royer Dupre), PERSIAN KING (Andre Fabre), BALLET RUSSE (Andre Fabre), DARIYZA (Alain de Royer Dupre), SHAMIYLA (Alain de Royer Dupre), SIYARAFINA (Alain de Royer Dupre) and PLATANE (Carlos Laffon-Parias). Must go and see if I can find someone offering fancy prices about SIYARAFINA as an alternative to favourite ENABLE trying for the hat-trick that Treve could not manage...
Shamiyla runs at Saint-Cloud today. She is 5/4 Fav for the Prix Cleopatre due off at 2.00PM She is actually the lowest rated in the race but open to a ton of improvement. Siyarafina is 25/1 for the Arc but there isn't a lot of stamina in her pedigree.
Shamiyla will be unlikely to be running in the Arc De Triomphe. Favourite for her race today, she trailed in 5th of the 6 runners as the Fabre filly Etoile won it easily with a nice change of gear. These bookies make it really easy to leave races alone, with Shamiyla trading at about 11/10 despite having only won a maiden, while the second favourite was a runner up by just a neck in a Group 3 race. The Racing Post had Etoile rated 26 lbs ahead of Shamiyla and while a lot of improvement is possible, it's a bit of an ask to have faith that 11/10 odds are any value. I can't say De Royer-Dupre is my favourite trainer by any means. I am a bit surprised still that he didn't run Siyarafina in the French Guineas because she had not sparkled on the gallops. How many times have we heard trainers say that a horse shows very little at home but surprises them on the racecourse?
Will not get an easier chance for his maiden win today in the first race at Longchamp. Already into 1-2 from 4-6!
Siyarafina reappears after missing the French Guineas due to working poorly in the lead up to the race. Collateral form suggested she would have won that Classic had she run and it's no surprise she is hot favourite for the Group 1 Prix St Alary today. I have backed Siyarafina for the Prix Diane ante post and a win today will see her very short for the race also known as the French Oaks. At a shade of odds on today though, I can't back Siyarafina. She missed her last intended race, so that is an immediate concern and she also steps up in trip today. She also meets a promising rival in Platane. Platane beat Etoile last time up and the Fabre filly went on to win really well next time out. Platane looks sure to enjoy today's trip, whereas Siyarafina has shown plenty of speed so far and does not tick enough boxes to warrant being odds-on in my opinion. Fount is unbeaten in two starts but her form leaves her with enough improvement to find. I will be pretty surprised if Platane is not in the first three today and at 5/1 each-way she seemed a fairly low risk option to me. She could win it and if placing it's a money back job. I hope Siyarafina wins for the sake of my Prix Diane bet but the odds are too short today. Platane at 5/1 is way too big in my opinion. 3.28 Longchamp Platane 5/1 E/W
Pity Zarkallani was not the odds of his price guide on ATR. They forecast him as going off at 11/2. Where do they get these people from? Long way for Zarkallani to go yet. That was a poor quality affair today with rivals rated in the 70's and it's hard to know where they will go with him next. The fillies race that followed was run in more or less the same time and the winner of that had a best RPR of 78. The Racing Media leave the UK punter's poorly served. On three different websites today, there were three different going reports for Longchamp. One said it was good, one said it was good to soft and the other said it was soft, so WTF? Times were a shade under 5 seconds slow so I doubt it is soft going. Zabeel Prince runs in the Prix D'Ispahan later and is 3/1 generally. The form of his last win could scarcely have worked out better with 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning well in good races next time out. Will Wild Illusion outstay him? That would be my biggest concern but I went with the Varian horse because he won well last time and the form is more than well franked. I hope to see him pounce late to take up the running to the winning line. 4.03 Longchamp Zabeel Prince 3/1
