The Guineas

I've gone with First Up. Might be a race or two too early but wouldn't want to miss out at that price!

 

Shine So Bright looks well short at 14/1, looks a bit tight that.

 

I think dandhu beat mot just previously also.

 

Yes, they were 4th (2nd time out) and 6th FTO in a Newmarket maiden. Mot Juste improved with every run last year (you could measure it as she was often running against the same fillies) and I felt his Newmarket win in the Oh So Sharp was as promising, if not more, than the Rockfel.

 

Advertise is worryingly weak here at 12/1 in a place.

 

Thats why you listen to Fenster in the big races folks, never in doubt, couldnt believe how far clear they were down the Golden rail.

Advertise and Ten Sovereigns dropping back to the sprint division id imagine.

 

Well Magna Grecia pissed up there. Many disappointments, not least of all Advertise who was shocking. The trainer had shouted the odds about him being a value bet but he was never going and beaten after two furlongs. His Walter Mitty trainer looks to have been bigging up a horse who has not trained on.

Ten Sovereigns looked well but he never quite convinced that he was going to win. It didn't look like he burned out late and I doubt Calyx would be sweating at the prospect of facing off with today's favourite at Royal Ascot.

The Godolphin team were pathetic and the most obvious question must be why Magna Grecia's conqueror Persian King was sitting on his arse in France while a posse of mediocre colts were chasing shadows at Newmarket. Who is running that show? Andre Fabre or the owners?

A big priced placer is often the question with Guineas form and King Of Change is this year's spanner in the works being second at 66/1. He won a tiny Nottingham affair last time and was rated 89 by the Racing Post. That is a bit shocking.

I was aboard Magna Grecia early doors for last season's Futurity but never felt he would have the pace for this. Part of my thinking was also that Persian King would confirm Autumn Stakes form with him if he showed here. Fair play to the colt, he has won it well and probably gone Derby favourite now. Saxon Warrior won the Guineas last season but failed to follow up at Epsom and Magna Grecia has less stamina in the pedigree. 5/1 for The Derby is the best available now.

Skardu and Madhmoon ran decent races but there were some terrible efforts on there. I was surprised to see late cash for Al Hilalee and he ran like a box of rawl plugs.

Well done anyone on Magna Grecia, it's hard to keep O'Brien down even if it looks like connections may have done their dough on the Fav.

 

low numbers could be going for a walk in the 1000, Just Wonderful drawn 15 with a pacemaker high as well, cant see here going off anywhere near the 7/1 she is just now.

 

Just checked the Godolphin runners finishing positions:-

12th, 13th and 16th. That has to go down as pathetic. Surely Persian King would have at least done better than that. Hey ho. If you can't be good be wealthy.

 

I would be interested to see where next for Madmhoon. Was drawn 1 today and I reckon different track..decent draw and fast ground he is likely to be in the frame once again.

 

The Varian pair are in traps 2 and 6 tomorrow. Mot Juste is in the lower box and Qabala in the stripey jacket box 6.

Qabala is heavily tipped but I think she is terrible value.

Just Wonderful has Lucky 15 while Skitter Scatter is OK in legs 11. I am reasonably confident about Skitter Scatter, certainly way more than I was with Advertise today. The Meade horse looks a bust to me and I hope that Oxx can coax a decent show from Skitter Scatter who seems crazy value at double Qabala's price.

 

Persian King would have had a massive chance, obviously that Autumn Stakes was one of the best 2yo races and Persian King was probably far better than the winning margin suggested. I just wonder if Fabre thinks he maybe didnt handle the dip too well that day as he looked to be cantering all over Magna Grecia at one point. Be interesting to see what sort of targets Persian King has this season, wouldnt be in a hurry to oppose him over a mile.

 

2000 Gns a non event. Stands side had a distinct advantage. Anything not running down the stands side did well to get in the first 3. So decent runs from Skardu, Madhmoon and Ten Sovereigns.

Not convinced about any of these for the Derby

 

Joe Mercer once said that the best place to be drawn is where the pace comes from. It was hugely helpful to the winner that Shine so Bright was drawn on the Stands side. If he (Shine so Bright) had been drawn no. 1 it could have been a different result. Could..

 

I used to speak quite regularly to someone who lives right next to Newmarket and attends every meeting there. She is a very experienced paddock watcher and her opinion was that Persian King had gone in his coat on Autumn Stakes day. Trainer Andre Fabre said after the race that Persian King was a bit green that day but it may be that he didn't handle the track that well. My former correspondent was of a mind that Persian King won with plenty in hand that day.

Magna Grecia has come from out of nowhere in a short space of time and I said the following about him on the forum back in November:-

"Wouldn't you rather take Racing Post Trophy winner Magna Grecia, even in a poor renewal, given that he ran like further would suit and he is 33/1 with Paddy Power?"

After reflecting on it, I talked myself into the notion that Magna Grecia would NOT get 12F and left him unbacked. I suppose he could have been a back to lay option but I'll just have to hope he stays at shorter trips to save the blushes.

Persian King is skinny for the French Guineas now at 11/8 and I took the decision early to back him for the French Derby instead, simply because he was 10/1 for that race at the time. He is 5/2 now and I hope he will step up and stay at home, rather than go towards a potential clash with Too Darn Hot, who will either go St James Palace or Derby after the Dante.

 

how do rawl plugs run ?
i thought aob looked really pleased with the result , and obviously a few others looked mighty pleased , donnacha had some so called second choice winners last year that seems a pattern is developing, ryan on the false fav, all the mugs lump on , meanwhile the shrewdest just back the son ......? without looking , in grade one races he’s streets ahead .........

 

0.8 secs slower than the 2000Gns. Carrying the same weight as the winner. 0-105 3yo handicap.

 

Would you rather the 2nd highest rated 2yo didnt run in the Guineas because they didnt know if it will stay or not? everyone who backed Ten Sovereigns knew the risk that he might be sprinter, the risk would have been there with Calyx as well although to a lesser extent imo given his pedigree. Im glad Obrien ran Ten Sovereigns in the race unlike Gosden running in a sprint trial at 1/3.

The Guineas is one of our most prestigious races and the most talented horses should always run in it, from sprinters to Derby horses. Dancing Brave beating Green Desert is what its all about. Dancing Brave goes on to win the Arc and Green Desert the July Cup and Sprint Cup.