How long did it take you to get restricted btw? Used to happen to me a fair bit but I had a mate who worked for a bookie and he told me how to keep off their radar so hasn't happened for awhile now. Probably also helps that I am probably down in most bookies overall, despite being heavily up in certain markets
Bookies rely on most punters essentially being mugs; you’re lucky, having spotted a loophole in their offer, that they didn’t spot it and restrict you. Most use algorithms to identify the “value” punters, ie. those who regularly shop around for the best prices and deals. Any punter who has found a way of making the market work for rather than against them, the bookies don’t want to do business with. Having said that, they love the GN - the shops are full of once a year punters, every horse gets backed, the favourites rarely win. So maybe they don’t care if one or two punters spot an opportunity to exploit an offer in a way they didn’t intend.
Oh yeah, I have been restricted in the past and I guess me backing 11/40 horses in the GN isn't enough of a "sure thing" for me to get flagged up, no matter the fact that I have won every year using the offer. The other one they do is the £50 in play offer, back something pre match for up to £50 and they give you a free bet to the same value in play. Every time I put £50 on over 0.5 goals in the game pre match for about a £2 profit but gets me the £50 free bet to have a punt on something with. I'm sure there will be ways to guarentee profit on that (back team A pre match for £50 and then back team B or draw in play for example) but that will get you restricted from the offer and I think it is such a good one that I would rather have a punt in play on a 20/1 or something and hope it hits. Have won a few times on it and think it has only been 0-0 once. Can cover yourself by putting a fiver or something on 0-0 with another bookie as well if you want, meaning you get a £50 bet for a few quid at worst.
It’s my mate’s fault I started getting restricted, I’m not clever enough to worry the bookies on my own lol He made money for years from arbing (bookies hate that), if there was a deal like the ones you described he’d be right on it, and he used to give me the heads up sometimes. He had to get his money on in all sorts of quasi legal ways, using (abusing) a very shady payments industry, because no bookies would take his bets. Before the Chelsea vs Bayern CL final he rang me up with a really convoluted way of backing both sides plus the draw; it involved an offer with Paddy Power, and another with B365. Guaranteed profit, but I got an email from B365 a few days later. I can only get on with Skybet, Stan James and Bf now. I rarely bet these days because if you can’t get the value, what’s the point? You need everything in your favour to stand a chance of coming out in front, and even then the profit on turnover is tiny. So I just have the odd mug punt on the big meetings, and go racing a few times a year. I have never bet much on football, but I believe there’s money to be made in the lower league stuff, for anyone who has a good knowledge of the game at that level (I don’t).
Yeah was a long running joke that the best place to find the whole team of non league footballers was in the bookies an hour before their game. Hear so much at that level about other teams that bookies wouldn't know about, like a stag do or something so half the team is ****ed, it is mental they even take bets on games. I don't really bother with the guarenteeing money thing solely because I am not betting big enough to be bothered about putting in the effort requried for £20 or whatever the outcome would be. I'm quite happy punting my money on stuff I fancy and winning some and losing some, but overall being down. I've tried a few of the trading strategies on betfair with varying success, but again came down to me being lazy. Trading the draw was the most profitable for me but I couldn't be ****ed with it after awhile. There is a website called Profit accumalator that my mate swears by, he thinks he makes a couple of hundred every month using it, I tried it for the month free trial and it is too much effort for minimum reward in my view, but maybe others wouldn't think the same
Good shout about the lower league football, Archie. Bet365 cover teams like Spennymoor and Blyth Spartans. At that level there's not really a full team or even a player that can pull something out the bag and change the entire outlook on a game. I was watching Blyth once against a team they were close to in the league and the odds were closely matched. After 15mins Blyth were running all over them and it was obvious on the eye that they were the better team that day. I checked the odds and they were still similar. They ended up winning 3-0 and it did make me wonder. The chances of a game changing and getting caught out at that level are a lot slimmer than backing premier league games.
Yeah, no Sadio Mane to pull some magic out and get Liverpool the win when they're not playing well. Plus knowledge is priceless when it comes to betting, and the bookies know everything about the PL. They have ex players and coaches and sports reporters advising them, everything is in the public domain. When it comes to the lower leagues, they probably just price up on league position and recent results; no real knowledge of the teams, so anyone who does know the game st that level can get an advantage.
Problem with trying to read form in the Conference South is that most clubs are part time so players come and go and they use the loan system so players are on short deals, ie as short as 4 weeks. Woking have used 40+ players this season. The clubs are also liable to implode for various reasons ie Billericay looked like they were going to win the league and now might not make the play offs which go down to 7th place. Their owner/manager was a nutter and had a mid season meltdown when he sold the club and a lot of players left. Torquay are the stand out team. They are full time and have a few loan players from one club, Bristol City, who made a big difference when they joined a few weeks into the season. They've hardly dropped a point in the past few months and unsurprisingly they are going to win the league. Woking were in with a shout at one point and will finish second but I don't think they'll win the play offs as a few key loan players left in January and the team has struggled to click ever since.
vs Torquay at home on Saturday. 2nd vs 1st. Torquay are on fire scoring a lot of goals while Woking are stuttering. Will be a big crowd. Torquay bringing 1,300, the away team usually bring between 2 and 200. A few weeks ago it looked like it was going to be a play off for the title but Torquay have pulled 7 points clear. Drew away in the league early in the season and won away in the FA Cup but Woking were playing a lot better back then and Torquay were still gelling. Hard to call as Woking are at home. It'll either be a home win, a draw or an away win.
See this is the sort of analysis this board needs. Also as the boys have pointed out you can tell what the mood of the players are like in the game
Perhaps next time Woking are at home in a game they are expected to walk, @Stan could take them all out on the piss the night before and ensure they get all lagging drunk? Then give us all the heads up? Much obliged.
oh fair enough, had a mate who I played with who was meant to sign for them years ago. Think they were in the conference then, would've been 2008ish. He turned them down anyway as he didn't want to move. Thrilling story I know
That horse was a non-runner so instead of sticking the 20 on the replacement I split it and done a 10a each on two horses and the replacement won Still going alright from yesterday. 140 up with a lucky 15 still to run. Winner Loser Still to run Balance so far
My last 2 GNs I have picked one horse and they have both come through to win. Hopefully I can get 3 in a row!
That would be quite a record. I backed Amberleigh Houss when it won for Ginger McCain, and Hedgehunter when that won the year after (2005 I think?). Thought I’d cracked the race, and it was a doddle, but I haven’t managed to find the winner since.
