Nothing there I could dispute with any conviction. I think Wings of Eagles was an improving horse and didn't get the chance to prove it due to injury. Otherwise he might have been further up the list; but that is pure speculation
There I was thinking you would be waving the flag for Invictus Spirit.....traitor! The reason it is not a race for horses that did not race at 2, in general, is obviously because they were/are rather backward and still playing catch up.
Yes AR. As I said in earlier post, I judge a horse based on how good it is as a 3yo, regardless of whether or not it raced as a 2yo. There could be a number of reasons why it wasn't seen on a racecourse at 2 and if it is good enough to beat raced 2yos in a Derby trial it is good enough to have a chance in the Derby. As stick says, the main reason for not running as a 2yo is that it hadn't sufficiently matured/wasn't forward enough.
The problem I have with Line Of Duty is that the Breeders Cup race he won has been poison in general for previous winners the following season. Most of them have done very little the next year. Mendelssohn looked like he might change that after his romp at Meydan but he was then tailed off in the Kentucky Derby as a crazy 9/4 Fav on industry prices, finishing stone last and he never won again and the form of his Patton Stakes seasonal comeback stank the place out in retrospect. Hit It A Bomb won the Breeders Cup Juvenile for O'Brien and was fancied by many for the Guineas the following season. We then heard he would be delayed in his comeback and he didn't win a race after being beaten Fav twice and then out of his depth afterwards. He now stands at a modest $7000 fee. Outstrip won for Charlie Appleby at Santa Anita before returning straight to the 2000 Guineas the following Spring but he was stone last to Night Of Thunder in Kingman's only defeat and his form tailed off, never winning again. Similar fates awaited other O'Brien Breeders Cup Juvenile winners George Vancouver and Wrote, with the same happening to Gosden's winners Donatavium and Pounced, with just a Listed win from seven starts for the former and the latter colt never raced again. I feel the Breeders Cup turf races are tough on young horses, especially when run on fast ground and I have regarded them as a negative when considering horses for the Classics in the UK. Maybe one will pop up and break the hoodoo but until then I have seen too many fail to fire at three to get involved. This year's Derby seems to be shaping like one where a dark contender may emerge and I just feel Too Darn Hot will not run in it. US Army Ranger nearly won the Derby after being unraced at 2YO and I recall backing John Gosden's Tamure each-way at 25/1 for The Derby ...after he made his racecourse debut aged three and only Lammtarra beat him by a length in the Derby. Probably unlikely an unraced at two colt will win it but the odds of reward will reflect that and there aren't many of the exposed sorts who appeal to me.
Masar ran in the BC Juvenile Turf. The future record of winners isnt particularly surprising, the best 3yo prospects are not aimed at the race, Obrien usually runs his also ran non G1 winners, nothing was expected from the likes of Wrote and George Vancouver, they were second string 2yos, and Hit it A Bomb had only run in a Dundalk listed race before winning. Similar story with Godolphin, if Outstrip had won the Dewhurst he probably wouldnt have run, he wasnt beaten far in the St James Palace and Sussex, no reason to think he ran to a lower level than he was capable of due to running at the Breeders Cup. If Masar had won the Lagadere he probably wouldnt have went over, its usually a last throw at a 2yo G1 for horses who either werent good enough to win them in Europe or didnt get the chance. From the previous renewal, Mendelsohn smashed the track record in the UAE Derby, placed in the Travers, Jockey Club and ran 5th in the Classic, just not good enough against the best American dirt horses. Masar won the Craven and Derby. Sands of Mali 2nd in the Commonwealth and won the Champions Sprint. James Garfield won the Greenham and placed in the Maurice de Gheest. Catholic Boy won the Belmont Derby and the Travers. Just the winner from the year before that, Oscar Performance, went on to win multiple G1s at 3 and 4. So I cant be having that running in the race is detrimental to a horses career, I think its just a case of in general, the best European horses wont be running in the race, Mendelssohn was 50/1 in the Dewhurst which tells the story really. I do think the standard of American horses running in the race is getting better in recent years.
Well I'd feel the same about Invictus Spirit but I'd favour Space Walk because Haggas has entered him recently for The Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de St Cloud, in addition to his Derby entry. I know this forum would favour Invictus as he's by Frankel.
I don't think Masar had a hard race in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. As he went to make his move from the back he ended up shuffled right back and had to start his run again. At the head of affairs Mendelssohn was coming to claim the non-staying Sands Of Mali and Masar was too far back to get in with a chance of winning. If you watch the closing stages you see him coming past beaten horses and then staying on for no pressure, not beaten that far in 6th place. You can see in the closing stages that Masar finishes with Buick's hands rested way up his neck in the style of a horse who had not had the chance to put a full effort in as he coasted home with the race over. It looked more like a piece of work than a horse going eyeballs out for the win. Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior both seemed to fail to get the trip at Epsom and Dee Ex Bee never won another race, taking a bigger thumping from Cross Counter in the Gordon Stakes than he got from Masar in the Derby. Outstrip was flattered to finish so close to Kingman in his races. The Gosden horse was hosing up and doing just enough to win despite the constant cries of ground worries from his trainer regarding the colt. Outstrip was an outsider who beat unreliable sorts in being third in the St James Palace Stakes and in the Sussex, he was 4th of four runners in a race where Kingman beat Toronado easily, with outsider Darwin only a neck behind, despite him being rated almost a stone lower than the Hannon horse. Predictably, instead of just accepting that Toronado had run below form, the official handicapper bumped Darwin up 7 lbs to a new personal best of 119. Equally predictably the horse ran a stone below his new rating next time out and a stone and a half lower than that new mark the time after. Outstrip himself was poor next time, only 8th of 12 to Custom Cut in a group 2 contest. He deteriorated further still out in Meydan and despite his official rating staying at 118, his last three runs were rated well below that level and if we take the two runs behind Kingman out, there is a clear decline from the Breeder's Cup form.
Masar had a bad trip and wasnt given a hard time once he couldnt win, are you suggesting if he had a better trip and was whipped to win the race that would have stopped him winning the Derby? Plenty of early 2yo types tail off midway through 3yo season, where is your evidence that running in the Breeders Cup causes it? I seem to remember fancying Bobbys Kitten strongly the year Outstrip won, but he went a mental gallop and finished 3rd, he was obviously a sprinter but that hard race didnt stop him winning the BC Turf Sprint the following season. Looking back, Outstrip won a very weak race with G3 class Giovanni Boldini finishing 2nd and a sprinter finishing 3rd. His 3rd in the St James Palace was without a shadow of a doubt a career best performance for Outstrip, finishing just behind the Guineas winner and in front of War Command who had beaten him in the Dewhurst. If your theory was correct, presumably that wouldnt be possible? I think you are flogging a dead horses here. I think the likely answer is that its mainly early 2yo types who are sent to the race from Europe, horses who dont have much improvement in them and are already proven to be below the best. If a good horse whos going to come into his own as a 3yo runs in the race and happens to win it, I see no reason why that would effect them going forward. Lancaster Bomber finished 2nd to Oscar Performance and went on to run placed in nearly every Group 1 going for 2 years straight, as I said before, the winner Oscar Performance also won multiple G1s at 3 and 4.
If you want to talk about a hard 2yo race, I think Game Winners was a bit tougher, 5/6 wide most of the way and a proper battle down the straight, finishing with dirt up his nose and in his eyes. I also dont think its going to stop him winning the Derby. The top horses thrive and improve for these races. He was the top 2yo and hes bred to come into his own over 10f as a 3yo, having a tough race at 2yo isnt going to stop that happening.
I am focusing on European horses having tough races on tight tracks, sometimes on really fast ground. Dirt and US horses who are used to tight tracks is a different matter and an area I don't follow at all. Outstrip beat War Command but O'Brien's horse didn't train on at three, in fact I felt he never really progressed after his Coventry win. He got beaten in Ireland and won a weak looking Dewhurst. The St James Palace Outstrip ran in was a very mixed bag outside of Kingman from a subsequent form point of view and on the day something had to be third in the race. The Sussex was a race that never panned out and it is interesting that Outstrip got a bit closer to Kingman in that race but got a six pounds lower mark from the Racing Post than he had in the St James Palace. The simplest explanation for that is that he was overrated for the first run. Kingman was the only horse from that St James' Palace who went on to win a race that season and I don't regard it as a strong renewal outside of Kingman, who readily put Night Of Thunder in his place, to the extent that they took the Guineas winner to the Eclipse and sent Toronado to take Kingman on in the Sussex. Fluke Guineas winner for me.
What do we mean when we say a horse didnt train on? Its quite ambiguous and im guilty of saying it a few times without really thinking about what it means. Are we saying the horse didnt improve from 2 to 3, if so, we could probably make that case for the vast majority of the horses running in early 2yo Group races. Or are we saying the horse regressed? For me, ive probably used it when I thought 'thats not the same horse', ie its regressed either mentally or physically. As you say, it was a weak Dewhurst, Outstrip included, Cable Bay ended up a decent G2 horse as a 4yo but no one from the race done anything of note at 3. The Coventry that War Command won wasnt up to much either for all he was an impressive winner. Outstrip was good enough to pick up the pieces in a weak Juvenile Turf, but like War Command, when you look at the form, I dont think you can claim that they regressed much from their 2yo best, it just so happened that the best colts from that crop, Kingman missed the race through injury, and Australia was given a more conservative campaign. If you look at the G3 Australia won, he beat fellow G1 horse Free Eagle 6L, it was a far higher level than that achieved by War Command while running in more prestigious races. Australia started 5/2 for the Guineas while War Command was 8/1 suggesting the yard had a similar opinion. Is there anything to suggest that running in Juvenile Turf led to Outstrip completely tailing off as a 4yo? I dont think you can say for certain, he has a similar profile to many horses who didnt run in the BC at 2yo, and I think ive shown enough cases of horses being successful after running in it. I take the point about the tight course and firm ground potentially being bad for certain horses, but I also think that our trainers generally only start thinking about the race with horses who like firm ground and were not able to win a G1 in Europe, im not sure if a European G1 winner has ever run in the race but I have not checked. Line of Duty himself is only rated 114 so he will have to improve plenty to be threatening to win a Derby. If he is the type of horse destined to be better as a 3yo, I dont think the BC race will affect that.
Many horses are overaced at 2 , how many first time out winners then ever win again? This is probably truer of a lower grade horse , but the principle is the same , it boils down to money surely . Connections hoping to recoup it , increase it , short term . Interestingly the richer owners don’t generally do this , they have no need , but for many the pressure is the other way , and many 2 year olds suffer during this stage of their lives , either mentally / physically not reaching potential. The national hunt is obviously totally different , but the flat industry has a high burn out rate .
Horses develop at different rates, sometimes in proportion and sometimes not. Some are mentally mature very early, some are physically mature very early, some both and some neither. Some who mature early continue to develop (some slower than others). Horses that mature early will probably be trained to win early, particularly if it doesn't look to be a horse full of promise. If a foal looks something special and continues to look special as a yearling, you know you have time on your side to allow it to grow into its frame and train it to be a decent 3yo/4yo. Such horses are not going to be rushed into winning races early in the season and may only run once or twice as a 2yo (in exceptional circumstances not at all). Consequently in the early/mid part of the season you have a real hotchpotch of 2yos ranging from fit and ready to take advantage of the situation to those who are work in progress and only there for the experience. Sometimes these latter types might win because the opposition is so poor With national hunt one expects the horses to be around for years and we have more of a likeness with show jumping where the best ones are given more time to develop. There will occasionally be the freak that is the exception but, generally, the harder a racehorse is trained and raced early in it's life the shorter career it will have at the top
Agree with what Ron says and take on board the points Eddie and others make. There probably is more at work than just having a hard race in the USA but with a view to the Classics I don't like following horses who went to the Breeders Cup meeting. I recall O'Brien's September being fancied as an Oaks and Guineas horse by some but I felt she was a bit small to progress at three and when they sent her to the Breeders Cup I saw it as a negative. Although she was third at Del Mar, it was her 6th race in less than five months and on Firm ground as well. I don't see that as a good preparation for the Classics and we did not see September again until late July, where she was last of seven to Magical in a Group 2 race. That was the last time she ran. Just Wonderful had seven races last year, the last one in the Breeders Cup and although the ground was more forgiving at Churchill Downs, I don't like that profile and I have felt she has been a bad favourite for the 1000 Guineas most of the winter. She seems inconsistent as well and I would be surprised if she lands the 1000 Guineas in England, Ireland or France. Getting back to the Derby and money continues to come for Japan, who could be favourite before long. Magna Grecia is attracting support as well, with Dubai Warrior supported, probably because he will be deemed Gosden's horse for the race soon. I think they are all very skinny prices when you take all the factors into account.
Kadar was given an entry today, he had a bit of a reputation after an impressive debut last season but ended up not taking part in any of the races he was touted for, has the stamina on the dam side but Scat Daddy siring a Derby winner seems unlikely, Justify did win the Belmont for him but he was a bit of a freak. Godolphin added 3, Line of Duty, Al Hilalee and Space Blues Madhmoon, Masaff and Guaranteed been entered from Ireland.
I had put up Space Blues as a horse to follow this season and noted that he was entered at Newbury this week. Having read that Charlie Appleby felt the horse would get the 12F and reading that he was entered in the Dante, as well as the Derby, I decided to have an interest for the Derby at 33/1 in case his price tomorrow was too short for a bet there. With Too Darn Hot having had a small setback and doubtful in my mind to run at Epsom, I decided Space Blues was the one from Godolphin that I wanted onside. Al Hilalee looks short enough and Line Of Duty has been covered already. The first odds for Space Blues tomorrow are 11/10 and that's too short for me. I'll just watch and hope he enhances his Derby chance. 25/1 is still available but he's been nibbled in over the last couple of days and hopefully he sets down a marker in a year where some of the contenders look slow to me.
