Of course that's what we need. As soon as we have a new PM the EU will offer us a fantastic deal on Brexit!!!! Like anything will change, load of bollocks
A new PM is solely for the purpose of saving the Tory party. Whoever comes in will avoid any recommendations from the Indicative Votes in order to protect the ERG. Better to keep May as her political career is over and she's now resigned to let whatever happens, happen.
my view is getting **** of her might a) shift a major blockage (she's like a hard plug of poo right now) b) break the no to mays deal thing. if it's gove then it's no deal 8no
It is quite funny how we all can see possible outcomes so differently. Just goes to show how fcked up and unpredictable the whole situation is.
yes. all I know or I should say believe is may will do what she has been doing since last november. she's ran down time and now is in extra time and will run that down too. no amount of marches or petitions will stop these so called politicians from plough ahead doing what they will in the excuse of respecting the voice of the people. in a generation when the eu are accepting an application from either Scotland on it's own or UK as a whole it'll be interesting to see the terms tjat need to be accepted. I reckon in the end the price could be join the euro which would be the ultimate irony.
If we leave and any part of the UK wants to rejoin it will definitely be on worse terms than we have now, because of certain current exemptions. As for May, yeh she may well run it down, depends whether a) parliament really do take control, and b) how much they push her to put any agreement on a deal they come up with. The other thing is this - IF parliament can come up with something the majority of the commons can get behind, at that point would they really ever favour May's deal ahead of that?
that's a hard hard question. in the end.... if parliament decide they would like norway+ for example then what would happen? a) eu have been clear. you must leave and be a 3rd party to begin negotiating. so we have to leave. b) the withdrawal agreement does 3 basic things. pays the eu what they want to clean up moving stuff and committed and agreed projects. protects gfa etc and then secures a transition period where everything is the same so in theory the final relationship is agreed before regulations diverge. if you decide next week in a vote that Norway+ is for us... well... to get that the blasted withdrawal agreement is perfectly logical starting point. my issue with the political classes is they have basically lied about this agreement, made it out to be awful etc etc. the reality is no position was ever going to be great was it.... if we knew where we were going then this deal.and what I've called zombie status would only be a step along the way. if we agree that brexit = free for all deregulation and chlorinated chickens and Brazilian need and blah blah blah then no deal is the way to go and anything to tie us to eu regulations is pointless. this is why I am so angry with Labour. they have assassinated this deal as mays deal but if Labour were in power in the morning and saying customs union or whatever then the self same deal.is a necessary step.along the way.
OK I see that but the problem with May's deal is that it wouldn't pave the way for a custom's union so Labour have had to hold that position because they're in opposition. If Labour was in Government, whether they had it as a stipulation or not within the WA, they would be in control after the WA. What angers me about Labour is that Corbyn has just not been clinical enough in holding May and the government to account. Most of us could've done a better job at the dispatch box, and that's not an overstatement. I won't use Tony Blair, but if John Smith (who I rate very highly and is probably far closer to Corbyn's politics) had survived, and was around in this fiasco, he would've wiped the floor with the Tories.
May's deal isn't great, but it's only a starting point for future negotiations. The problem is, you have a section of parliment that doesn't want to leave, a section that wants us to **** the EU off completely and then the ones in the middle who would vote for the deal but only if it includes exactly what they want. The basics of the matter is it's a massively complected issue that can't be sorted out in just two years. People have suddenly realised that if we leave with a deal we might as well stay as that's a better deal, or sever all ties and take our chances.
the only reason this deal would not lead to a customs union is the party negotiating the future relationship. all futures are still possible EXCEPT for the hard Brexiteers utopia. this deal really sets up a very close relationship with eu eventually and that's why mogg and his scum hate it. for Labour to bleat about a customs union and reject this deal is frankly ridiculous in my view. the only reason they are doing it is to force an election and that's deeply cynical
Corbyn is very much looking to be in government, the last thing he wants to have to do is actually give a firm impression of what labours answer to the conundrum would be. The Tories are eating themselves alive, he knows all he has to do is keep out of the way and he will win the next general election
yes but... right now we are days away from a no deal disaster so there's pushing it and them there's irresponsible behaviour. at this point imo Labour are as close to.imploding as the Tories are and from what is see is more labour mps in the independent group than Tories and more serious accusations thrown at corbyn than merely incompetancr. I should be saying there's no outcome.that will mean anything but a labour government in next election but that's not the case is it... corbyn.ensured that.
It's hard to read if he'll win. The media machine is firmly against him. WHEN a GE happens, the strategy HAS to be around poverty, low income, NHS, small businesses, schools and if he can get that message across then that's his best option and best chance.
I reckon he's got to simultaneously appeal to the youth with the idealist bullshit and to the older voter with some tax breaks or whatever. he got a great bounce appealing to youth last time out and that's works only for people of in power. (macron politics) but to secure the deal he mist get old cynics to say ok hes not gping to rob me for his pie in the sky. poverty = the young schools = the young social justice = the young nhs = the old incomes = the old crime = the old. just follow Blair. tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime. bring back the glory days of the nhs, educations, build business... something for everyone
I don't think a no deal Brexit is likely, neither the UK or the EU want such a thing. The EU offered further extensions quite happily knowing it took May's biggest bargaining chip off her, as what they want is for us to stay. Corbyn knows a general election or another referendum is coming, sooner rather than later. As for the independent party, Chuka is looking to be the next leader, but after a brief hurrah, the little break away has mostly been forgotten.
Aye those are the issues. The difference being unlike Blair those are matters of conviction for Corbyn. His campaign machine were very clever in utlising social media last time, while May's lot were clueless. I don't think the Tories will make the same mistake again. Corbyn will also need to rely on the traditional labour voters hating Tories for the Brexit cock up more than him. Tories big selling point will be employment. Corbyn will have to counter that with the hefty rise in poverty of people in work. I think there's a large proportion of the population who are just a couple of paychecks away from being in the same position and that message will ring true with them.
Looking back over past elections, I don't think many parties win elections, the sitting government loses. The last time the conservatives lost, people had had enough of the sleaze and corruption. When labour lost it was because the economy had gone tits up. Most people vote for the same party all their lives, it's a minority that change and usually it's because the standing government have ****ed it up, so the opposition must be better.
