I've been listening to various political journo's to see if anyone covers this, specifically the existing A50 legislation to leave on 29th March, but nobody's mentioning it. I thought this would be an important point. Unless everyone is saying the extension is now a given.
It is a given that the 29th will be removed, albeit there’ll no doubt be a debate around whether it’s replaced with a new date or left blank. All of which is moot anyway tbh, as we’re now at the point were she either gets her deal through, or Parliament take control of the process.
or we should say the eu have told parliament to take control if they vote no or crash out in April 12.
SO by any logic: a) they must accept the extensions and vote on changing the date first.or not. (choice 1) this leaves no deal brexit on table, just changes the date. this could take a while as some might argue to put no date at all and some to hardwire in the 22nd may. b) they must vote on mays deal - no triggers leave on 12th april OR UK hold indicative votes and go back to EU and request long extension and accept eu elections (forcing us to be democratic) thus starting form scratch on negotiations based on the uk finally deciding what sort of brexit it wants c) these would be indicative and binding votes to choose future relationship model and type of brexit before April 12th and if another extension is sought. The first hurdle for me is if MPs will accept this extension at all. The second hurdle I am assuming may will lose by more than 160 votes if the labour party doesn't man up and accept After that nobody can tell what sort of things will come up.
The problem with c) is even if the indicative votes lead to some agreement, it can ONLY be the government that can put legislation forward. Will they? And actually, will they even let it develop as without a doubt, it will decimate the Tory party (the ERG will breakaway) and we all know this has been the single biggest driver in Theresa May's actions all along.
I think some are so determined to do a Brexit of some sort it will prevent revoking article 50 impossible. I like to think most are determined to not have a no deal brexit. Its just down to who can call whose bluff. May will force a 3rd vote now on the same deal and those who were against it will be threatened with no deal and no brexit. I believe the best we can hope for is a better brexit deal, Norway esque etc
Can she force a 3rd vote on same ****e then? Thought the speaker had put stop to that or he not have power to actually enforce that.
if you look at what was attached to second vote it was no substantive difference and AG even said so. They only need stick this timetable to the thing and its just as different IMO Question: Do you want to Leave EU with this deal on 22nd may or reject this deal and decide whether to leave on 12th april or develop a desired outcome and retun to eu for longer extension and enter EU elections. quite simple. Eu have said all along this is the deal. tell us what you want. we have ignored them. We have assumed that at any point we could ask for extension. they have rejected Mays request and sent her home with their own version stating: a) you need to either join EU elections or **** off... or b) sign the deal and **** off and we will do you a favour and give you til 22 May which is a s long as we can prior to elections. but mostly **** off already.
Mrs May is expected to table secondary legislation - that has to go through the Commons and the Lords by next Friday - to remove 29 March from UK law. But Downing Street sources say an agreement with the EU to extend the Brexit deadline would be a piece of international law and would take precedence even if Parliament rejected it. #primacyofparliament
Anyone have a link to petition? As I understand all citizens eligible to sign even ex-pats, I'd give my signature. I don't want my homeland turning into a backwater country!
The biggest problem at the minute is trying to predict what may will do, the EU has effectively removed her biggest bargaining chip in the no deal cliff edge. she has run the clock down to the last minute to force through what she wanted, the EU pissed all over her by just saying we could have longer. The deal won't be voted through, especially after her truly spectacular speech when she effectively won all those MPs round by calling them all arseholes. No deal will not be considered, so a two year extension will go ahead. Now what happens next is a mystery, will a general election be called, the Tories won't want one as they are fairly sure that they will be decimated. A second referendum? Who knows
This is exactly what I predicted. All the aces are in the EU's hands. They can steer the vote towards any outcome they want by make it known what's will be allowed and what won't. For example they have already signalled that every outcome will be possible even a massive extension of Article 50 or even its revocation. That's the signal they seem to give when giving the UK less time for refusing the deal and more for accepting. In that case why would the remainers and soft Brexiteer or anyone else vote for May's deal? simply a waste of time to put it to the vote.
I've never come across a more lame duck prime minister. She can only guide her ministers by fear and threatening to do something completely irrational.
Hold on, why does nobody think this bitch won't simply do the same again - drag this out to the first or second week of April (coming up to 12th April) and then put her deal on the table again with the threat of No Deal. She's a fcking stubborn idiot!
