4.10 Doncaster Lutine Bell 16/1 I really like the look of Mike Murphy’s runner today, who has been ultra consistent of late (bar his last run) without quite getting his head in front. He runs for one of my favourite trainers as his horses always seem to progress. After a successful beginning to his career with Sir Mark Prescott, which included 2 victories and 3 placed efforts ranging from 5f to a mile, he moved to his current yard in November last year where he romped to a winning 6L debut over 7f on the AW. Although winless since then, Lutine Bell has performed with a fair deal of consistency since, performing very admirably in most subsequent starts. After being raised to a mark of 92 after the 6L victory, Lutine Bell’s mark had remained static at either 92 or 91, until his effort at Ascot has seen him raised to a mark of 94, which I still believe is very much within his ability. After producing a below par 2nd effort for the Murphy yard, Lutine Bell produced a decent 1.12L 3rd behind Angels Pursuit and Seek the Fair Land, again on the AW. On his next start, Lutine Bell returned to the turf and ran out an excellent 1.56L 4th over 6f behind the excellent Horseradish, who subsequently ran a very credibly 1L behind Hoof It off a 4lb mark before being sold to Hong Kong. He was staying on strongly towards the finish, showing that a step up to 7f would be ideal, which he gets tomorrow. Perhaps more interesting than Horseradish, was Waffle, who finished only 0.75L ahead of tomorrows selection. Subsequently, Waffle ran an excellent 2nd to Deacon Blues at Royal Ascot, only narrowly failing by a neck as the line came too soon. In correlation with the form of this race alone, Lutine Bell surely has an excellent chance. However, Lutine Bell has run another 3 excellent efforts subsequently. On 21 May, after a disappointing run at Ascot, Lutine Bell ran finished a good race to finish 1L 4th behind Crown Choice. This was another good run, emphasising the normally excellent standard that Lutine Bell runs to. After this, Lutine Bell was quite luckless from start to finish when finishing 3.31L behind the progressive Dungannon, a horse he finished 0.75L in front of on May 21 with only a 1lb swing in the weights. According to the trainer, “the starter hesitated for a split second before opening the stalls which resulted in Martyn taking the hood off the horse a fraction early. The horse hit the gate and bounced back onto his hocks just as the gate opened” and after meeting traffic, he could not get into contention. Murphy futher cited “We were both thrilled with his run but disappointed as with a clear run he would have won.” Three starts back Lutine Bell ran an excellent race to finish 0.75L 2nd to Piazzo San Pietro. Lutine Bell missed the kick a bit that day and still did a very good job to finish 2nd. Two starts ago, Lutine Bell again found one too good. Facing one of his toughest tasks to date, Lutine Bell travelled ominously well throughout and for the most part cut his way through the field from deep off a mark of 92. However, he met a small bit of traffic along the way and had to be switched. He finished an excellent 0.75L behind Noble Citizen, who has subsequently run a great race to finish 0.75L 3rd behind Bronze Prince in a big race at Ascot off a 3lb higher mark. Noble Citizen reopposes tomorrow but with a 4lb favourable pull in the weights I think Lutine Bell can dispense of this rival. Furthermore Macs Power, who has put together two fine efforts, including an excellent 3rd in the Stewards Cup, finished a length behind todays selection. LTO Lutine Bell put in a rare poor performance at Goodwood when he finished 4.75L behind Webbow over 7f. I’m convinced something was awry with him as he never picked up at all when asked for an effort which is rather strange. He got bumped leaving the stalls so maybe that effected him in some way but at the end of the day its all speculation. Regardless, he’s entitled to one bad run and I am certainly willing to forgive him that. Tomorrow represents Lutine Bell’s toughest challenge off a mark of 94, but I certainly think he’s definitely able to win off this mark. If the rain stays away, the good ground currently should be ideal and he’s got a very nice draw in stall 2. His efforts behind Horesradish and Dungannon were at the track so he clearly goes well here. I was very surprised and happy to see that the excellent Richard Hughes gets the ride tomorrow, which represents the first time he rides for the Murphy yard. Hughes certainly would have had the pick of a few horses in the race and I think its very significant he has chosen Murphy’s charge. All in all, I fancy Lutine Bell quite a lot tomorrow and I think he has a cracking chance. I was at Leopardstown at the weekend and saw Below Zero winning impressively and he is sure to be a big danger. Murphy’s yard are in good form at present and September is traditionally his most successful month so he should have Lutine Bell in top nick after over a month off the track. The 6.5f should prove ideal and if everything goes to plan and he gets luck in running I think he has a fantastic chance at a nice price and hopefully he’ll win this as he certainly deserves to. I fancy 5.00 Sandown Rock Anthem quite a bit too and he's forecast to be 20/1 tomorrow. However, as a bunch of idiots on betfair have insanely backed over 200 quid at less than 3s then he may open a ridiculous price. If anywhere an acceptable price I'll get a write up done.
Short price double for me tomorrow Fallen For You 3.00 Donny (13/8) and El Greco 3.20 Sandown (fc 11/10)
Sorry but please take some of the 25/1 on Na Zdorovie. Please please please. So overpriced its unreal, I can't believe it.
A mouth watering day of racing tomorrow - I will be having two punts tomorrow at doncaster: 13.55- Requinto NAP- This horse has to be one of my favourite horses this season. He is just pure pace! He got left behind nunthorpe and can be excused- perhaps hes not up to the elders this season. But he will be more at home in his own age group. He was far to strong for Burwaz in the molcombe and I think he will be tomorrow. The only competition will be from My Propellor has won in good listed company in york and like requinto is very quick. And the trainer think alot her but I just think tomorrow Requinto will just be too strong 14.25- Opinion Poll- Looked good in his wins in the Goodwood and Lonsdale Cup and a very good 2nd to Fame & Glory at ascot. In his impressive win at goodwood he did beat many of these, he is going for a hat-trick of wins and I think tomorrow he will complete this!
The one that I’ll be watching most closely tomorrow isn’t at old Donny but at Sandown Park. Sir Michael’s 2YO El Greco. This one is a well bred colt being a half brother to Patkai, Saptapadi and Modun and is also related to Hellenic and Islington. He put up a solid debut effort when a nice 2nd at this course back in July and can, most certainly, be expected to have improved from that run plus the step up to a mile will undoubtedly be beneficial to him. Should oblige tomorrow before going onto much better things (entered in both the Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy).
3.55 Sandown- MUNTASIB 16/1 (NAP)- I still think this horse has the ability to win a race like this and with the right sort of ride and a bit of luck in running, maybe today is the day. Dropped back down to a mile today after experimenting over 10f for two starts (Travelled very well on first occasion) and might just have enough to see him home over the lesser trip today. Not really any unexposed threats to him, so it will come purely down to ability. I'm going to give him one more chance. As a NB, again I go to Sandown, this time in the shape of SPIRIT OF GONDREE 8/1, who might be quite well in off a mark of 67 on handicap debut in the 4.30 after some promising maiden runs, including when 5th of 18 behind CARLTON HOUSE last season. His seasonal debut will have blown away the cobwebs and looked full of promise, so he is worth a play today off a featherweight. DONCASTER FANCIES 1.25: MY PROPELLER 5/1 Have to say this looks a nice value bet against Requinto and having won a maiden in a very impressive time on second start, he showed more improvement in a listed heat last time. Can continue the progression by taking this with a bold front-running ride. Looks the sort of field that can give away a soft lead, and could take some catching. 1.55 Doncaster: THEOLOGY 13/2- Looked back to near best at Chester last time when staying on very late to get within 2 lengths of the front pair, and there is no question he is a talented stayer on his day, and seemed highly regarded last season. His 2nd behind TIMES UP a couple of starts back reads pretty well and with Richard Hughes booked he should hopefully travel strongly and be produced late. 2.25 Doncaster: TASTAHIL 16/1 At this price you would just have to take a chance on Tastahil, who at his best would go very close here. 2nd in the race last year behind Samuel, and given another 43 days to recover since disappointing last time, you would hope he is fresh and ready to go. Doncaster is a very fair track and he should be allowed to dictate things from the front. Goodwood's undulations would have been a nightmare for him I think, and I think on a flatter track he should gallop on strongly to give himself every chance of making the frame. Charlie Hills has started very well, so maybe he can return this one to something near its best 3.00 Doncaster: SAMITAR 5/1 Over on refugees I tipped this one up to win the Albany at a nice price and I remember Mick Channon saying afterwards he would like to see her try a mile. Absolutely nothing wrong with her form and along with Regal Realm, sets a very high standard indeed. I think she might show just that bit more improvement than Regal Realm and can progress up in trip to win this.
i love you boys so keen this is the place to be great vright ups hope you all are lucky, wont bet til the morrow but will read with interest stay frosty
Good evening all A good days racing on Friday One for tomorrow at the moment and will continue to edit the post as I find more. 1.25 Doncaster – CALEDONIA LADY 33-1 E.W (BOG) This is a belting race to start the third day of the St Leger meeting and hopefully I will get a run for my money from 33/1 shot CALEDONIA LADY. She should be doing her finishing towards the end of the race so whilst stepping down from 6f to 5f may not look ideal on first glance there are several really speedy types in this race and this is the key reason I am with Jo Hughes’s filly. The likes of Burwaaz, My Propeller Lilbourne Lad and Vocational certainly don’t hang about and I am hoping this will set the race up for a fast finisher. This filly certainly has her quirks but has plenty of talent and has proved on more than one occasion she is capable of running a big race in this class. Sent off at 150-1 on debut the selection showed clear signs of ability in an average maiden at Leicester on debut dwelling at the start but making late headway without ever threatening to land the race. Although this was a satisfactory start to her racing career it was obviously a massive shock to see her flashing home to finish 3rd in the Queen Mary stakes at Royal Ascot. She was sent off an unconsidered 100-1 shot but found only the unbeaten and subsequent Lowther Stakes winner Best Terms and Shumoos too good. A clear idea of how good that form line actually is would be to look at the 4th home that day Fire Lilly, that filly has since finished runner up in both the Lowther and the Moyglare behind leading fancies for next year’s 1000 guineas (Maybe and Best Terms) Caledonia Lady failed to build on that effort when only 8th in the Cherry Hinton at Newmarket but she did take a keen hold that day and she failed to pick up anywhere near as well as she had done at Royal Ascot, another that was free that day was My Propeller (runs against selection again tomorrow). She finished 2nd last that day but the feeling is she didn’t perform to anywhere near her best either and is surely capable of better. The biggest disappointment of Caledonia Lady’s career so far was the fact she failed to win a maiden at Ffos Las when sent off a 1-3 favourite. She was very keen again that day though and the small 6 field race wouldn’t have suited her in my honest opinion. She would have been well left alone today if that was her latest effort but she bounced right back to form on her next and latest outing when 4th in the Lowther Stakes (a form line mentioned earlier). That was a nice performance and I don’t think she was suited by the softer going that day either. She had tomorrow’s second favourite Angels Will Fall behind her that day and I am hopeful that if she gets the strong pace required and if the ground remains good that she will run a big race at a very generous prng early on. 1.55 Doncaster BOURNE 11/2 (BOG) A really competitive handicap with no real stand out on bare form. Precision Break landed this race last year and is sure to be spot on today, however this looks a better renewal than he won last year and he doesn’t look outstanding value at 8/1 considering his patchy profile. I am wanting to back something unexposed at the distance and also a horse that may well still be progressing and therefore a chance is taken on BOURNE. Luca Cumani’s 5yo Gelding has been in good form this season starting off with a staying on 4th (nearest finish) behind Modun who of course went on to perform with great credit in big handicaps before winning a Group 3 at Kempton Park last weekend. Raised just 1lb for that effort Bourne went on to land a weak handicap at Haydock again doing his best work towards the finish of the 1m2f race As a result of his progressive looking profile Borune was sent off the 3/1 favourite for a warm handicap at Epsom but he endured a nightmare run, never getting hampered badly 4f out, the fact he was beaten at the time suggests to me he was well below his best and the uniqueness of the Epsom track may well have been a legitimate excuse. The selection proved his Epsom run to be all wrong when putting up a career best to finish runner up in the Old Newton Cup over 1m3f at Haydock, he was keen early on in the race and the fact he was still staying on towards the end of the race suggests this was a really good effort, he had several decent horses in behind him this day. Although well held on his next and most recent appearance at Doncaster when running 7th of 13 I was still impressed by his effort. When making his challenge 2f from home he didn’t have the clearest of passages and whilst it is obvious this didn’t cost him a chance of winning the race he was nicely looked after in the closing stages by J-P- Guilambert staying on at the same pace under hands and heels riding. I am really looking forward to seeing him step up to 1m6f today and I am convinced this will suit him, a strong gallop would also be an advantage as this would hopefully reduce the chances of him pulling early on. 2.25 Doncaster TACTICIAN 7-1 (BOG) A good renewal of the Doncaster Cup and Opinion Poll sets a very high standard following his second in the Ascot Gold Cup before victories at Goodwood and York, however it is not easy to keep winning these staying races and at odds of under 2/1 I have to be against him today despite his high class form. Saddlers Rock looked slightly unlucky behind Fictional Account and Fame and Glory at the Curragh last time out and as we seen yesterday John Oxx has to be respected when sending them over, Motrice looked at her best last time out when thrashing the Mark Johnston trained Eternal Heart, she has run with credit in these big races before and has to enter calculations again. The one I am going for though is TACTICIAN. Tactician is currently priced up at 7-1 and in my opinion this looks like some good value, trained by Michael Bell and owned by The Queen this 4yo Motivator Gelding looks a very progressive type and it would come as no surprise to see him take the step up to Group company in his stride this afternoon. Having finished 5th behind Prison Break at this meeting last year on his final start as a 3yo Tactician returned to the track as a 4yo with a fine second in a fair Newmarket handicap, this effort came after a 246 day absence and he showed a willing attitude to stay on without ever troubling the winner. Having clearly come on for his Newmarket outing Tactician produced a very good display under today’s jockey Eddie Ahern when winning the Silver Cup at York again showing a very good attitude to keep on gamely and denying the now 110 rated Fox Hunt victory in the process. On his next and latest appearance Tactician put in a brave performance from the front in the Ebor under a very good Joseph O’Brien ride, however he found one too good in Moyenne Corniche who had been laid out for the valuable prize by trainer Brian Ellison . Tactician once again showed his will for a battle when staying on gamely to try and regain the lead close home. He had some nice types in behind him including Modun, Saptapadi,Fox Hunt, Lost in The Moment and Mount Athos who are all 100+ rated. His two most recent starts as mentioned above have been very impressive and if he can continue on this upward curve I can see no reason why he can’t make an impact in this race today now stepped up in distance, he will handle the ground and is certainly worth his place in a competitive renewal 4.40 Doncaster –DUMBARTON 9-1 (BOG – NAP) I am looking forward to the last race at Doncaster this afternoon as I feel DUMBARTON could be really well handicapped off a mark of 82.Sir Michael Stoute’s lightly raced 3yo colt had just the one start as a juvenile when competing in a maiden at Leicester towards the end of August 2010. It was clear before the race that he wasn’t going to win that day starting a 10-1 shot with two more fancied stablemates also taking part in the race (6-4 and 5-2). However he did show plenty of promise in the race finishing 6th of 15 making some nice progress in to third in the final furlong before weakening out of the places late on. He was looked after by Louis –Phillipe Beuzelin throughout the race and was clearly seen as a handicap prospect for this season. Following a 328 day absence Dumbarton made his seasonal reappearance at Windsor and made no mistake running away in impressive fashion (4 ½ lengths) having travelled powerfully in to the race. Although the form of this maiden is nothing special at all it was hard not to be impressive by the way he quickened away from his field and as a result he was sent off the 7/2 fav for a decent handicap at Newbury last time out. However he refused to settle and pulled way too hard for his own good and there was little chance he was going to win after only 2f of the race. As expected he had nothing left in the tank come the closing stages of the race and he was eventually eased to walking pace by Jimmy Fortune to spare the horse a hard time. Fallon takes the ride now and Dumbarton has been dropped 3lbs to a mark of 82 and with plenty of pace angles in the race hopefully he will not race so freely and will have something to give towards the end of the race. He looks as if he could be really well handicapped and I will be disappointed if he is not bang there come the finish of this race with
5.00 Sandown Rock Anthem FC 20/1 As the Betfair price is looking more respectable than earlier I'll pop up the write up now. Really like the look of Mike Murphy’s 7 year gelding in what looks a very open contest. Although he doesn’t win much, Rock Anthem last 2 wins came in this corresponding event the past two years. Last year he was given a fantastic ride by Russ Kennemore off a mark of 72. He was waited with for a long time at the back of the field and Kennemore pushed the button inside 2 furlongs to go and Rock Anthem proceeded to blast through the field to get up in the last 100 yards to win by 0.75L to Beaumont’s Party. The effort was visually very impressive as he met a couple of momentum sapping spots on his way to victory. I believe there was still a lot of horse left under Kennemore at the end of the race. The 2nd in that race has subsequently come out and won twice off a mark of 75 (was 74 that day) and has finished a very respectable 4th off 83 LTO. A couple of others that day who were behind have come out to win off similar marks. Rock Anthem has 6 wins to date and his victory in 2009 came as a 5 year old when he was actually a 1L 2nd behind Desert Kiss. Rock Anthem was flying home that day but just couldn’t get to the front, again off 72. Desert Kiss was rated 80 that day so considering he weighed in light its fair to say he was a couple of lbs lighter than that. Desert Kiss was a 4 year old at the time and he has subsequently gone on to win off marks of 85 and 89. The declared 2nd that day Poyle Meg, who raced off 77 that day and finished 1.75L behind Rock Anthem, has subsequently won off a mark of 80 on the AW. The 3rd has come out and won off a 1lb lower mark. Rock Anthem started the season disappointingly and came out and produced a rather disappointing run at Sandown where he was 2-2 over the C+D. However, he blew the start completely that day and I think he was probably saved for another day. Furthermore, the ground had probably gone against him with all his wins coming on ground that is good or better. Tomorrows ground is forecast to be Good so if we don’t get any rain then I think the ground should be ideal. Rock Anthem continued the disappointing trend of poor performances when finishing a distant 9th at Brighton off a mark of 75. Martin Dwyer was booked that day and it was a bad run with no excuses. If that was his last run I would be very hesitant to back him but he definitely showed that he was returning to some sort of form LTO at Kempton on August 15th. Racing off a lower AW mark, Rock Anthem was dropped out the back by tomorrows jockey Tony Culhane and he travelled very well throughout the race. Culhane brought Rock Anthem down the outside and he came with a very promising run and looked to have a serious chance 1f out. However, it became apparent that Rock Anthem was not going to win and he was eased in the final furlong eventually finishing 4L behind the winner Catchanova. The form of the race looks fine with Catchanova winning again off a 6lb higher mark and the 2nd Ferruccio coming 2nd off a 3lb higher mark. It definitely was evident that Rock Anthem was nearing his best form and looks sure to come on from that run. Rock Anthem races off a mark of 71, which is 1lb lower than his two victories in this race so he is clearly quite well weighted based on that form. Rock Anthem’s rating peaked at 77 this year so perhaps it seems this race was the target all along and his poor performances have allowed his mark to drop below his last winning mark (effectively 2lbs higher as two 3lb claimers were on for the victories). I think I have tipped him up needlessly the last couple of times as it has become clear now that this race has been his target for quite a while. He has a great record of 2 wins from 3 over C+D and I am willing to discount his last run as the bad break and conditions were against him. Mike Murphy’s horses seem to hit top form at this time of year and I certainly think his horses are in good nick at present. Although I don’t think the 20/1 forecast will be available tomorrow I am certainly hoping that he is at least double figures. Although poorly drawn in 17, Rock Anthem doesn’t need a handy position early on so I don’t think its going to be as big a factor as it could have been. If returning back to top form he is certainly well capable of winning this and fingers crossed that this is the second of an across the card double for trainer Mike Murphy. I also like two more horses and am going to play them in a double as their prices are short and both look very open contests. The two horses in question are both at Doncaster and are Irish raiders. 1.25 Requinto 7/2 and 2.25 Saddlers Rock 5/1 Requinto has been in very good form this year as he won the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood back in July. He looked a really talented horse that day and his manner of victory was nothing but impressive. LTO Requinto took on the older horses in the Group 1 Nunthorpe stakes and was a bit disappointing, but trainer David Wachman said he didn't like the soft ground so I am willing to completely scratch that effort from memory. He looks sure to have a fantastic chance against his own age group tomorrow and this colt represents both the trainer and regular jockey's only action of the day. I was very impressed with Saddler's Rock LTO when he was rather unlucky in defeat behind Fictional Account and Fame and Glory as he finished 1.50L back in 3rd. He was extremely well backed that day and with Fame and Glory being a top class horse I think that indicates how well thought of he is by connections. With a clear run, Saddler's Rock would more than likely have won the Irish St Leger Trial but things didn't go his way and he was very, very unlucky in running. His trainer John Oxx is a shrewd man and he wouldn't waste his time coming across the Irish Sea unless he thought his 3 year old had a fantastic chance. Oxx already saddled the impressive Alanza today so I know that his mount will be in top condition for tomorrow. Although the step up to 2m2f is a big jump, if Oxx thinks he can stay the trip I have 100% confidence in the horse staying that far and indeed improving. Saddler's Rock has virtually a stone in hand on every other horse in the field and my only niggling doubt is that Murtagh isn't over for the ride. Niall Mccullough is a fine jockey in his own right but considering Murtagh only has one ride at Down Royal tomorrow evening I am perplexed as to why he isn't over as he could easily make it to Ireland for the evening race. I really think Saddler's Rock could win this emphatically tomorrow if he's improved again and fingers crossed he does at a nice price.
Linden, I just love the challenge of being accurate you see. My nap is in the gentlemans race Downhill Skier, which is a gentlemans way of saying....
ROTO Saddlers Rock carries just 8-1 today. Johnny Murtagh just can't do the weight. His lowest riding weight in the last year is 8-9
Cracking write-ups again. Very compelling reasoning. I think I should have done my competition entries after reading these.
Good Morning gents and Princess Tricky looking day again but a couple have caught the eye: 155D: Tominator deserves to win another big race but may just fall short. 300D: Fallen For You looked a superb horse on debut but is way too short for me to back. 320S: The Perrett clan have an excellent record in this event so AUTARCH should be backed! 345C: I have been told the yard are going to have a go at Chilly Filly, the price will tumble Come on England in the Rugby Great opening game too
haha thats what tiredness does to you. It didn't even cross my mind even though it was blatantly obvious! Cheers
Nass you lucky ****er - you won the ATR comp £500 funded account what a hero you are my friend Congratulations to NASSAU BOARD (edited) from Chesterfield who wins a £500 funded account courtesy of Ladbrokes in our St Leger Festival Tipping Challenge on Wednesday 7th September 2011. James' selections were Ghostwriting (10 pts @ 11/2), Eureka (10 pts @ 4/1), Humidor (40 pts @ 14/1) and Cai Shen (10 pts @ 8/1) taking the early Ladbrokes price on all selections
